This article is part of our FanDuel NHL series.
SLATE PREVIEW
Both the Jets and Canadiens are trying to get back on track. Winnipeg has won just two of their past nine, slipping out of the top three in the Central and holding a one-point lead over Calgary for the final wild-card spot. The Habs have been equally futile, losing five straight for the second time this season. The Habs are just one of three teams in the league who have lost more than they have won at home.
Islanders fans have cringed and responded in anger to that r-word the analytics keeps bringing up: regression. They've lost five of their past seven and continue to routinely get out-chanced on offense. The juggernaut Avalanche offense is coming to town, and even though they've won just three of their past eight, they've averaged over four goals per game in that span.
The Maple Leafs are 15-4-1 under Sheldon Keefe and the Oilers have gone from division leaders to playoff hopefuls, and that's about all you need to know for this matchup. The Oilers are coming off an impressive 4-1 win against Boston but they have not won two games in a row since late November.
The Blue Jackets have been incredibly resilient but wins will be tough to come by with so many players on the shelf. That's good for the Kings, who have nine games remaining in January and face only two opponents – Columbus and Anaheim – who are currently not in a playoff position. This game's a toss-up between the 27th and 28th-ranked offenses in the league by GF/PG and the result depends on which narrative you believe more: John Tortorella is one of the best in maximizing a depleted roster while the Kings' underlying possession metrics indicate they're much better than their record suggests.
GOALIES
I like Frederik Andersen ($8,800) against the Oilers with the Leafs rolling, but watch out for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, who admitted his play has been less than stellar of late (minus-24 in December) despite putting up the points and had a particularly strong game against Boston.
Semyon Varlamov ($8,300) should get the start after four strong games (2-2-0, 8 GA) but Barry Trotz may mix it up to snap the Isles out of their funk. Because the Islanders don't generate much goal support (21st in GF/GP), it'll be an expensive win if Varlamov pulls it off. He may have the book on his former teammates but the Avs offense is legitimately terrifying (3.71 GF/GP, 1st) and the Isles routinely get outshot (28.7 S/GP, 30th). Philipp Grubauer ($7,900) looked good in a win against Jersey and also the better value play despite being on the road.
Carey Price ($7,800) and Connor Hellebuyck ($7,700) are in for a duel, though Hellebucyk has not fared well against them in his career (3.75 GAA, .908 Sv%) and Price's play has also dipped. In a matchup between two good goalies, sometimes it ends up being a high-scoring game. The Jets offense has been very good with Mark Scheifele's line and the Habs are still managing to score goals despite missing key players. The Habs won 6-2 in their last meeting.
I don't trust Jonathan Quick ($7,600) very much and Elvis Merzlikins ($7,200) has been surprisingly good since he's gotten called up. However… if we're already scraping the bottom of the barrel, the Kings seem like a better bet because 1) they're at home, and 2) the Blue Jackets can't score. The Kings are third in SAT%, the only team with a positive SAT% with less than 40 points. I would rather take a chance on Quick than decide between Price and Hellebuyck.
VALUE PLAYS/ONE-OFFS
Goals will be hard to come by in this game but Boone Jenner ($4,400) has played over 20 minutes in four of his past six games and playing a much bigger role with so many regulars out of the lineup. He gets shots on net and he's also a decent shot blocker, too. Nick Foligno ($4,400) is in a similar boat.
James Neal ($5,400) is heating up again with a hat trick against the Rangers, but followed that up with two zero-point games against Boston and Buffalo. It's boom or bust with him, as usual.
Nick Suzuki's ($4,500) is getting a much bigger role lately, having played more than 20 minutes in three straight games. The best value play for the Habs, however, could be Ilya Kovalchuk ($3,000), who is a game-time decision with a visa issue but will certainly be part of the offense with so many of the Habs top scorers on injured reserve.
FORWARD LINE STACKS
Toronto Maple Leafs (TOTAL: $21,300)
C – Auston Matthews ($8,600)
W – Mitch Marner ($7,900)
W – Zach Hyman ($4,800)
Hyman doesn't score often but he's good at digging out pucks and keeps the price of this line stack low. Matthews is $500 cheaper than MacKinnon, so that tilts the value proposition and line stacks in his favor. John Tavares and William Nylander are worthy stacks, too, but they're not generating as much offense as Matthews' line.
Winnipeg Jets (TOTAL: $22,100)
C – Mark Scheifele ($7,700)
W – Patrik Laine ($7,800)
W – Kyle Connor ($6,600)
Connor's been brilliant lately with seven goals and 10 points in his past seven games, and the Habs are stuck in a rough patch yet again with uneven goaltending. Scheifele's production isn't too far off from Matthews' and MacKinnon's, but he comes at a much lower price. At worst, this line will generate a ton of shots, giving them a high floor at a reasonable price.
DEFENSE
Zach Werenski has five goals in three games but I don't expect that to continue. He's having a nice (read: lucky) week on offense so that $6,400 price tag is hard to justify.
Cale Makar ($5,600) would be my top pick in terms of production and matchups. Sam Girard ($4,900) has also been really great with eight assists in three games, but because he doesn't shoot as often as Makar, I still think Makar's a better value play.
Neal Pionk ($4,100) has been one of the best stories in Winnipeg this season and he's on a three-game assist streak. He has 14 assists in 15 games since December while playing more minutes than ever.
