Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
.970
That's the combined save percentage of three backup goalies last week who are forcing their way into a timeshare: Tristan Jarry, Pavel Francouz and Alexandar Georgiev. Jarry is the least surprising of the bunch because of his past experience and last season's success in the AHL (23 wins, .915 Sv%, 2.66 GAA), and Matt Murray has a tendency to go through some awful stretches that makes giving up Marc-Andre Fleury an even harder pill to swallow. Jarry has played six of the last eight games, five resulting in wins, so don't be surprised if Mike Sullivan keeps riding the hotter hand, but it certainly would be surprising if Jarry ended up taking the starting job entirely. Murray's still their guy — he did win them a Cup — but Pittsburgh has a history of backups taking over the starting job when you least expect it.
Georgiev is coming off a 38-save shutout against Vegas last night, and he's started in four of the last five games for the Rangers. If Jarry is starting only because Murray is struggling, Georgiev is starting because at some point the Rangers have to think about moving on from Henrik Lundqvist. Georgiev's results have been mixed, but it's been trending upward lately with two shutout wins. A battle between Georgiev and AHL Hartford starter Igor Shesterkin for the crease post-Lundqvist is already brewing, and it has the capacity to alter
Some food for thought after another week of fantasy hockey ...
.970
That's the combined save percentage of three backup goalies last week who are forcing their way into a timeshare: Tristan Jarry, Pavel Francouz and Alexandar Georgiev. Jarry is the least surprising of the bunch because of his past experience and last season's success in the AHL (23 wins, .915 Sv%, 2.66 GAA), and Matt Murray has a tendency to go through some awful stretches that makes giving up Marc-Andre Fleury an even harder pill to swallow. Jarry has played six of the last eight games, five resulting in wins, so don't be surprised if Mike Sullivan keeps riding the hotter hand, but it certainly would be surprising if Jarry ended up taking the starting job entirely. Murray's still their guy — he did win them a Cup — but Pittsburgh has a history of backups taking over the starting job when you least expect it.
Georgiev is coming off a 38-save shutout against Vegas last night, and he's started in four of the last five games for the Rangers. If Jarry is starting only because Murray is struggling, Georgiev is starting because at some point the Rangers have to think about moving on from Henrik Lundqvist. Georgiev's results have been mixed, but it's been trending upward lately with two shutout wins. A battle between Georgiev and AHL Hartford starter Igor Shesterkin for the crease post-Lundqvist is already brewing, and it has the capacity to alter the future of multiple franchises.
Francouz is in the best situation after Philipp Grubauer left Saturday's game against Boston with an undisclosed injury, but he most certainly isn't the Avs' goalie of the future. He is, however, capable of being a starter for stretches, and the Avs are at home for the next three games. All three goalies are worth owning, with Jarry and Georgiev being ideal handcuffs and Francouz as an interim starter.
58.37
That's the CF% in more than 90 minutes of play for Alain Vigneault's new line of Morgan Frost between Claude Giroux and Travis Konecny, according to Natural Stat Trick, though Giroux continues to take the bulk of the faceoffs. The 20-year-old Frost, who is coming off back-to-back 100-point seasons in the OHL with the Soo Greyhounds, scored 12 points in 16 games with AHL Lehigh Valley earlier this season and now has four points in 10 games. He's gifted the Flyers another solid scoring line with a key piece of their future core arriving sooner than expected, and the emergence of Oskar Lindblom (11 goals in 30 games) has also really helped balance out the Flyers' attack and given them a lot of versatility in the lineup. Moving Frost into the top six pushes fellow rookie Joel Farabee (11 points in 24 games) down to the third line while James van Riemsdyk (six goals in 30 games) continues to toil in the bottom six amidst his struggles. Frost averages just 14 minutes per game, but with his offensive upside and added value playing on the top PP unit, he's a must-have in the short term in the hopes that he can maintain his spot in the top six (possible) and perhaps blossom into a future asset in keeper leagues (probable).
29.2
That's the percentage increase in Jack Eichel's point-per-game from last season, going from 1.06 to 1.37 this season. That's a bigger jump from last season than draft peers Mikko Rantanen (16.9 percent), Brock Boeser (14.8 percent) and even Connor McDavid (12.8 percent). In fact, among the top 10 rookies in scoring in the 2015-16 season, Eichel is the only one whose P/GP has increased every single season. Watching him play live against Vancouver was terrifying (that OT winner almost counted) but also a treat; McDavid gets a lot of fans because of the way he can control the puck at top speed, but Eichel does that very well, too, and in any other draft since would probably be the No. 1 pick (yes, even ahead of Auston Matthews). Eichel is on pace for 112 points this season and rewarding bullish owners who drafted him early. If we're ranking keepers for forwards age 25 and younger, Eichel has climbed into borderline top-5 status behind McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Nathan MacKinnon and arguably Matthews, Elias Pettersson, Aleksander Barkov and David Pastrnak.
13
That's the number of power-play assists Quinn Hughes has registered this season, first among defensemen and only behind McDavid and Draisaitl in the entire league. That's amazing for someone deemed too small and weak to play in the NHL and quarterbacked the second PP unit to start the season. At this rate, Hughes will finish with 67 points, including 39 on the power play alone. The caveat: the Canucks have a league-leading 114 power-play opportunities, putting them on pace for 311, and they would become only the fourth team since the 2011-12 season to reach 300. If there's a regression in power-play opportunities to the league average the decline in offensive production shouldn't be steep — the Canucks are fourth in the league in efficiency at 27.2 percent.
0
That's the number of points Brent Burns has scored in his last eight games. His goal output — five in 32 games — is actually on pace with what he's averaged the last two seasons, but his lack of assists and declining even-strength play is particularly concerning. According to Natural Stat Trick, he went from 53.07 CF% in his breakout season in 2015-16, which ranked first on the team, to 47.55 CF% this season, which ranks sixth. Using hockey-graph's age curve, the drop off in WAR for defensemen from age 34 to 35 is pretty darn steep, and Father Time is undefeated. According to HockeyViz, the Sharks are generating four percent fewer unblocked shots and allowing 16 percent (!) more unblocked shots at 5-on-5 than the league average when Burns is the ice. That's astonishingly bad, especially when Erik Karlsson is generating 11 percent more chances than average on offense and allowing one percent fewer chances than average on defense. It was a great run for Burns the last five seasons, but we can all agree that the 34-year-old is no longer at the top of the list, or even anywhere close to the top 10, despite being the top ranked defenseman entering the season with an ADP of 12.1 (Yahoo) and 10.2 (ESPN). The big "FOR SALE" sign hanging around Burns' neck is tough to ignore, and now might be a good time to trade him before his play declines even further.
