Daunte Culpepper

Culpepper, who the Raiders signed to bridge the gap until the JaMarcus Russell era starts, was a flawed but productive player in his heyday. But you can’t deny he was once fantasy gold, platinum even. Was it because of having Randy Moss in his prime or because his scrambling ability made defenses easy to read? Either way, he no longer has Moss and has likely lost the scrambling ability forever after a devastating knee injury that required multiple surgeries. Teams got payback last year by blitzing him on half of his attempts and dumping him repeatedly (21 sacks in 134 attempts). Culpepper has to make major adjustments on the fly for a new team and in a new system.

Those of us who play fantasy baseball have a hard time accepting the reality that most football players are largely products of their environment. Without Randy Moss and Scott Linehan, Culpepper unsurprisingly wasn’t Culpepper. In addition, Culpepper is coming off a catastrophic knee injury. So, you must completely discount his ability to score with the ball in his hands; even with good wheels, Culpepper has just seven rushing TDs since 2002. You also have to factor in the impact of current offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, who was ultra conservative as head coach of the Bills (20th in first-down pass percentage, 19th in overall pass percentage despite losing 11 games; the only good news was that Mularkey was 12th in percentage of pass plays in the red zone). Culpepper, if healthy, is much better than he showed last year. Chris Chambers could be a poor-man’s Moss, and Randy McMichael is a top receiver at tight end. The biggest question about Culpepper is the knee, so be sure to grab a capable backup if you gamble on him.

Manning’s record-breaking season obscured it, but Culpepper’s 2004 was a fantasy season for the ages. Not only did he pass for 39 touchdowns and the fifth-highest yardage total in NFL history (with a YPA of 8.6), he also ran for 406 yards and two more scores. In fact, counting the rushing totals, Culpepper produced the most total yards of any quarterback in history, and that includes Dan Marino’s 5,084-passing-yard campaign in 1984. But two major developments could cut into Culpepper’s value this season, the first being the loss of perhaps the greatest downfield threat ever to walk the earth. We got a small sample of what Culpepper might be like without Randy Moss when Moss missed the better part of five games last season with a hamstring injury. During that time, Culpepper threw for 1,179 yards and nine touchdowns. Prorated over a full season, those numbers amount to 3,773 yards and 29 touchdowns – respectable, certainly, but nowhere near his 2004 totals. And it wasn’t as if Culpepper faced a particularly tough schedule those weeks as the Titans, Giants, Colts, Packers and Lions were collectively well below average in pass defense. With Moss in the lineup last year, Culpepper’s 2004 numbers prorated to 5,146 yards and 44 touchdowns over a full year. The drafting of rookie speedster Troy Williamson should help to an extent, but expecting a rookie to fill Moss’ shoes isn’t realistic. Nonetheless, Culpepper posted solid numbers last season even without Moss, and when you throw in 400 rushing yards and a few rushing scores, he’s still an elite fantasy quarterback.

When you look at Culpepper's stats from last year in a vacuum, you'll unwisely conclude that he's not only a fantasy star, but firmly established among the NFL's best real-life QBs. He's not. Culpepper lacks the confidence necessary to dominate on the consistent basis you would expect when you consider he has the game's ultimate weapon at wide receiver, a very solid offensive line, a stable of solid-to-spectacular running backs and now, quite possibly, the long-lost complementary downfield threat at No. 2 receiver (Marcus Robinson in the Cris Carter role). Additionally, Culpepper plays most of his games indoors in one of the NFL's weaker divisions. Still, he's failed to approach his inaugural 2000 season, when he accounted for a whopping 40 total TDs. Culpepper's raw rushing data is remarkably consistent, as he's averaged between 5.3 and 5.9 yards per carry every season. Predictably (when you consider the history of rushing QBs), the TD totals vary widely, ranging from 4-to-10. Expect six, but remember that even at a size rivaling many defensive ends, Culpepper's running still makes him a greater-than-average injury risk. Still, Culpepper is a very accurate pocket passer (only 13 percent of his throws were poor the last couple of seasons) with tremendous upside if his running TDs break right (and if his running doesn't break him).

It's still open to debate whether or not Culpepper is a good quarterback in real life. But when it comes to piling up fantasy points, he's clearly one of the best there is. Culpepper's strong suit has never been his passing, but with Randy Moss to work with, he gets by well enough (18 touchdowns, 3,853 yards last year). The real kick to Culpepper's fantasy value comes on the ground. He rushed for 609 yards and 10 touchdowns last year, and he's collected 22 rushing touchdowns in 43 games since becoming a starter. Even though the Vikings have other solid options on the ground (Michael Bennett and Moe Williams), No. 11 will continue to get regular work around the goal line – even if some of the TDs come on broken plays.