IDP Analysis: Logan's Turn to Run

RISING

Avery Williamson, (3-4) ILB, PIT

After initially playing in a rotational role upon Pittsburgh's trade acquisition of Williamson, the former Kentucky product will likely need to step into a three-down role for the Pittsburgh defense for the next few weeks at least, as starting linebacker Robert Spillane suffered a knee injury against Washington in Week 13. Williamson played a bigger role in light of Spillane's injury and finished the upset loss with nine tackles (six solo), giving a glimpse of how he might produce until Spillane's return.

Tae Crowder, (3-4) ILB, NYG

Although he's an undersized (6-2, 235) non-prospect rookie seventh-round pick out of Georgia, Crowder has been a productive IDP option at several points this year, and might have had a consistently productive season overall if not for a mid-year IR stint with a hamstring injury. Crowder upped his snap count from 13 in his first game back two weeks ago to 39 in Week 13, which is more in line with the workload he claimed prior to the injury. Crowder posted 10 tackles (six solo) on 62 snaps in Week 6 before the injury struck, and on his 39 snaps in Week 13 he generated seven tackles (six solo) and one sack. Crucially, Crowder played ahead of David Mayo and Devante Downs, meaning he should continue to see the second-most inside linebacker snaps behind Blake Martinez.

Rashan Gary, (3-4) OLB, GB

Gary is only a fringe consideration in leagues where he's listed as an LB, because as an edge defender he just can't post the tackle totals necessary to be competitive in most formats. In leagues where sacks are disproportionately valuable or in leagues where Gary is defensive line-eligible, though, it might be time to pay him some attention. Overrated workout warrior or not, Gary's draft pedigree is high as the 12th overall pick from 2019, and he's been reasonably productive to this point in his NFL career. Just as or more importantly, the Packers have shown an intention to increase Gary's workload lately at the expense of Preston Smith, who might be on the way out after this year. After playing 119 snaps to Gary's 64 over Weeks 10 and 11, Gary played 79 snaps the last two weeks to Smith's 92. That was before Gary posted 1.5 sacks against the Eagles on Sunday – something that could earn him more playing time yet. Gary now has six career sacks on 586 snaps, making him a viable double-digit sack threat in a starting workload. There's considerable upside here -- Gary (6-4, 277) is huge but incredibly athletic (4.58-second 40, 38-inch vertical).

Logan Wilson, LB, CIN

Wilson still need to push aside one of Germaine Pratt or Josh Bynes to take up a three-down role and truly thrive as an IDP, but it's possible that that scenario could soon come to fruition. A third-round pick out of Wyoming, Wilson is a plus athlete at linebacker and has been playing coverage-oriented snaps off the bench for the Bengals all year. The last two weeks, though, Wilson played 40 or more snaps after previously playing more in the 25-30 weekly snap count range. With 33 tackles, one sacks and two interceptions on 335 snaps, the prospect of Wilson taking up a three-down workload is indeed tantalizing for IDP investors. Perhaps that won't happen in 2020, but it appears closer than it was two weeks ago.

Adam Butler, DT, NE

It's not really clear how he does it – Butler is smallish (6-4, 293) and unathletic (5.23-second 40) – but he's quietly been a disruptive lineman for the Patriots the past three years, and he was a consistently disruptive four-year starter at Vanderbilt before that. After posting a sack each of the last two weeks, Butler is up to 11 sacks in his last 1,156 NFL snaps over three years. That would project to about six sacks per 640 snaps, and Butler is currently playing around that mark of roughly 40 snaps per game over the last three weeks. This is all to say that if Butler continues his current workload and prior production rates, he could provide cheap if low-upside DL2 utility to close out the year.

FALLING

Ashtyn Davis, S, NYJ

Davis might yet turn into a solid safety for the Jets, but it appears that the rookie year might be over for the third-round pick out of California. Davis suffered a foot injury in Week 13, and coach Adam Gase implied that it might end his season. Davis had started the last five games while incumbent starter Bradley McDougald sat out with injury, and in those five games Davis produced 30 tackles. More of a speedy centerfielder athlete than a traditional box safety, Davis will hopefully make more plays in coverage down the road, but otherwise he should provide at least 80 tackles per 16-game sample beginning in 2021.

Shawn Williams, CIN

Williams' 2020 season was doomed all along once the Bengals signed Vonn Bell from New Orleans in free agency, and it reached a low point in Week 13 after Williams stepped on the leg of Dolphins lineman Solomon Kindley on Sunday, drawing a one-game suspension for the NFL. Williams was already reduced to a special teams player in Cincinnati, and now he's mostly reduced to a regrettable punchline.