Surviving Week 3

Surviving Week 3

This article is part of our Survivor series.

No one of note lost last week, though I did have to sweat it out a bit with the Titans. Fortunately, you don't get docked for near misses, and rarely do you get deep into your pool without a couple. 

Let's take a look at this week's slate.

TeamOpponent%Taken*Vegas ML**Vegas OddsExpected Loss
BROWNSFootball Team5.80%30075.001.45

Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on 
** Average of the two moneylines

For the first time, we have something interesting: A whopping 46 percent of pools are on the Colts, while they're only 83 percent to win, a low number for such a heavily-used team. As such, you might want to fade the Colts, as I'll demonstrate with some simple math below: 

Once the Colts are off your board, the rest are close enough that you should just take your pick. But for the sake of this exercise, let's use the Browns (who I probably wouldn't take, but is Vegas' No. 2 choice.) 

If you compare the Browns to the Colts, there are only two scenarios that matter: Colts win, Browns lose, and Browns win, Colts lose. In the scenarios where both win or both lose, it doesn't

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Chris Liss
Chris Liss is RotoWire's Managing Editor and Host of RotoWIre Fantasy Sports Today on Sirius XM radio.
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