ADP Analysis: July Trends for WRs and TEs

Last week's edition of ADP Analysis focused on quarterbacks and running backs, pinpointing Ryan Tannehill and Devin Singletary as nice bargains after their stock tumbled throughout the summer. This week we'll focus on pass catchers, comparing BB10's ADP results from May and June against the data from the first 28 days of July.

Wide Receivers

⬆ Allen Robinson

May/June: WR12, ADP 34.3 ➡ July: WR9, ADP 29.0

I have Robinson ranked at WR7, which means I've regularly been drafting him in the third round even as the price has risen. Quarterback play in Chicago remains a concern, but you'd be hard pressed to find a safer bet for 25 percent target share after Michael Thomas, Davante Adams and Julio Jones come off the board by the middle of Round 2. While I understand the big-play appeal with Kenny Golladay (WR7 ADP), Mike Evans (WR8) and Odell Beckham (WR11), I prefer the volume security of Robinson or even D.J. Moore (WR10). 

There's no concrete explanation for the ADP shift here, so it might just be a case of Robinson twitter hype somehow reaching yet another new level. Given how much everyone claims to love the guy, I'm kinda surprised he isn't a second-rounder by now.

⬆ DJ Chark

WR23, ADP 57.3 ➡ WR21, ADP 51.2

There seems to be a general upward trend when it comes to public perception of the Jacksonville passing attack, with Gardner Minshew (QB24), Chris Thompson (RB62) and Tyler Eifert (TE31) all seeing small ADP bumps when we compare July to the two months prior. Personally, I'm all-in on the Jaguars offense, figuring pass volume will make up for efficiency issues as the team is often forced into catch-up mode as a result of its inability to play defense. 

There's competition for snaps between Chris Conley, Dede Westbrook, Laviska Shenault and Keelan Cole, but Chark should be exempt if the Jags end up rotating wide receivers in and out of the lineup. The volume upside here is something along the lines of 25 percent target share in a 650-pass offense, which would work out to 162.5 targets. I'd say 130 is the more reasonable expectation, but that's still a strong number for someone with a fifth-round ADP.

⬇ Deebo Samuel

WR28, ADP 67.7 ➡ WR37, ADP 83.2

From May 1 to June 15, Samuel came off the board at WR27, ADP 63.1, not too far from his pre-draft range (WR27, ADP 61.9 from March to mid-April). His price has obviously taken a dive since the mid-June announcement of a Jones fracture, but it feels like the drop isn't nearly as steep as it should be. A round and a half is light punishment for an injury of this severity, with 49ers GM John Lynch acknowledging Tuesday that the 24-year-old receiver is in danger of missing the early part of the season. 

The Jones fracture also comes with a high risk of re-injury, and there's a decent chance Samuel is limited in terms of snap count and/or effectiveness when he first retakes the field. I dropped Samuel to WR40 in my personal rankings, and I'll probably push him down a few more spots in response to Lynch's less-than-optimistic quote.

⬆ Jalen Reagor

WR52, ADP 135.0 ➡ WR51, ADP 128.1

Pessimistic reports on Alshon Jeffery's rehab from foot surgery likely have contributed to Reagor and DeSean Jackson (WR58, ADP 142.9) creeping up the ADP ranks. Now we find out that Marquise Goodwin will opt out of the upcoming season, putting the second dent in the Eagles' plan to bolster their receiver depth. Back in June, coach Doug Pederson suggested Reagor would be asked to study the Z receiver spot behind Jackson, but possible the rookie mentioned this week that he's also been learning the X role (Jeffery's old job).

It's not like the Eagles are flush with alternatives, unless they expect a huge step forward from J.J. Arcega-Whiteside. The situation gives Reagor a real shot to lead this position group in targets, so he and Jackson both make for clever picks in the double-digit rounds.

⬇ Alshon Jeffery

WR65, ADP 174.0 ➡ WR71, ADP 188.7

Pederson expects Jeffery to contribute "at some point" this year, but it's pretty clear the 30-year-old is only still around because his 2020 salary is guaranteed. Jeffery will open training camp on the PUP list, and there's no assurance he's removed before the start of the regular season. At best, we're probably talking about a possession role and a bunch of missed games, i.e., similar production to what Jeffery provided last season. I fully support the growing gap between Reagor/Jackson and Jeffery.

⬆ Brandon Aiyuk

WR66, ADP 177.7  ➡ WR62, ADP 160.9

It's interesting to see Aiyuk rising by nearly the same number of spots Samuel has dropped. Granted, the implied gap in production is much larger earlier in drafts; there's a bigger difference between picks 60 and 80 than there is between picks 160 and 180. Aiyuk's new price isn't terrible, but I do think there's better value to be had later on with James Washington (ADP 186.0), Laviska Shenault (205.2) and Steven Sims (209.8). 

The lack of offseason and preseason prep in 2020 creates challenging circumstances for a rookie, so Samuel may be back in the lineup by the time Aiyuk is up to speed. That's not to say both San Francisco wideouts can't be productive eventually, but I'm guessing neither will be much of a factor in September.

Other Movers

Steven Sims — WR82, ADP 222.8 ➡ WR77, ADP 209.8

Cole Beasley — WR76, ADP 201.9 ➡ WR78, ADP 211.3

Tight Ends

⬆ Hayden Hurst

TE11, ADP 111.7 ➡ TE9, ADP 102.7

This isn't the first time we've discussed Hurst's astronomical ADP rise, and he's now comfortably ahead of the man he's replacing in Atlanta (Austin Hooper, ADP 115.9 in July). TE9 is exactly where I have Hurst ranked, but at this point, I'd rather take advantage of the second order impact of his rise. More precisely, I'm referring to the reduced price for Hooper, and, to a lesser extent, young breakout candidates such as Mike Gesicki (ADP 117.3) and Noah Fant (ADP 124.6).

⬇ Dallas Goedert

TE15, ADP 125.4 ➡ TE16, ADP 130.9

Goedert has gone from slightly overvalued to properly valued, as there's limited upside beyond his 2019 production if Zach Ertz remains healthy. However, I'm a bit surprised to see the third-year pro moving down, considering the aforementioned Jeffery pessimism seems to be giving his non-Goedert teammates an ADP boost. The Eagles may not use multi-TE formations quite as often as they did last year, but they still appear subpar at wide receiver, so Goedert could reasonably be third in line for targets.

⬆ Gerald Everett

TE28, ADP 210.8 ➡  TE27, ADP 200.4

Tyler Higbee has been discussed ad nauseam on fantasy football twitter, but I suppose we can run it back for those of you who make better use of your time than hunting down repetitive social media arguments (that's my job, after all). One group contends Higbee averaged only 21.2 yards per game before Everett suffered a knee injury last year, noting that Everett wasn't actually healthy when he returned for Weeks 16-17 (which was why Higbee continued to play every snap and dominate).

Then we have the other group, to which I belong, where we argue that if Everett wasn't healthy he wouldn't have been active, noting that he may have been kept on the sideline because Higbee was such a bast. We in the Higbee believer camp think his three-down role has a good chance to carry over to 2020.

Regardless, the never-ending argument isn't having a huge impact on Higbee's ADP, which was 84.7 for May/June and 87.0 for July (TE7 in both cases). It makes sense for Everett to rise a bit, especially if you subscribe to the notion that all press is good press for someone who otherwise isn't given much thought.