NFL 2020: Using Vacated Targets to Identify Opportunity

Last week we looked at offseason moves from an RB-centric perspective, analyzing the number of 2019 carries each team added and lost with its veteran transactions. This week, we shift our focus to pass catchers, looking at targets instead of carries.

The Top 5

1. Dallas Cowboys

190 Vacated Targets — Randall Cobb (83), Jason Witten (83), Tavon Austin (24)

15 Added Targets — Blake Bell (15)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 58 percent (21st)

2019 Pass Attempts — 597 (T-10th)

This one doesn't seem especially complicated, with first-round pick CeeDee Lamb replacing Cobb as the No. 3 receiver while Blake Jarwin (41 targets last year) takes over for Witten as the top tight end. But there's no guarantee the target distribution remains as balanced as it was last season, when five Cowboys landed between 71 and 119 targets. Jarwin and Lamb will need to earn their work, considering the alternative — more targets for Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and/or Ezekiel Elliott — is also a reasonable proposition.

It's tempting to believe the Cowboys will lose a good chunk of last year's passing volume in the likely event they improve on an 8-8 record, but here are a few things to consider before making that assumption:

• The 2019 Cowboys were No. 2 in both pace and neutral-situation pace.
• The 2019 Cowboys were No. 5 in pass rate on early downs in neutral situations (per The Athletic's Ben Baldwin).
• The Cowboys had a pythagorean expectation of 10.7 wins, outscoring their opponents by 7.1 points per game, i.e., they faced run-friendly game script more often than the 8-8 record suggests.
• The Dallas defense was 21st in turnover rate (9.9 percent) and T-24th in plays per drive (6.1), which explains how the offense was only T-18th in number of drives (10.9 per game) despite playing uptempo with impressive efficiency.
• The Cowboys parted ways with longtime DC Rod Marinelli, who is known for a conservative, zone-heavy scheme with infrequent blitzing. His defenses were decent at point prevention, but they rarely produced turnovers and finished bottom 10 in plays allowed per drive each of the past five seasons. New DC Mike Nolan should bring a more aggressive approach that doesn't allow opposing offenses to drain so much clock. Over 21 years as a DC or HC in the NFL, Nolan's defenses have averaged the 56th percentile for takeaways and 37th percentile for rush attempts faced. He comes over from New Orleans, where he was LBs coach for a defense that ranked 12th in turnover rate (12.7 percent) and ninth in blitz rate (32.7 percent) last season. The Cowboys, on the other hand, were 26th in blitz rate (23.2 percent). A defense that gives up more big plays but also creates more big plays would be a positive development for fantasy value on the other side of the ball (Prescott, Cooper, etc.).

 2. Atlanta Falcons

258 Vacated Targets — Austin Hooper (97), Devonta Freeman (70), Mohamed Sanu (42), Justin Hardy (26), Luke Stocker (14), Kenjon Barner (8), Ty Sambrailo (1)

104 Added Targets — Todd Gurley (49), Hayden Hurst (39), Laquon Treadwell (16)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 67.9 percent (1st)

2019 Pass Attempts — 684 (1st)

It's easy to see why there's so much hype surrounding Hurst and Calvin Ridley, who likely will be Options B and C (not in that order) for a quarterback who eclipsed 600 pass attempts six of the past eight seasons. Julio Jones and Ridley are the safe bets to pile up targets, especially the higher-value downfield passes, while Hurst and Gurley will contend with the No. 3 receiver (Russell Gage?) for shorter throws. The Atlanta passing game figures to lose some of last year's volume if for no other reason than regression to the mean, but we're still looking at similar conditions (good QB, pass-happy OC, bad defense, declining RB) to those that produced 684 passes last year.

• Gage and Sanu combined for 116 targets last year, with Gage getting 66 of his 74 after the Sanu trade.
• Hooper averaged 7.5 targets per game, placing fifth among tight ends (Zach Ertz, Travis Kelce, Evan Engram, George Kittle).

3. Green Bay Packers

132 Vacated Targets — Jimmy Graham (60), Geronimo Allison (55), Danny Vitale (12), Tra Carson (4), Trevor Davis (1)

5 Added Targets — Devin Funchess (5)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 59.8 percent (16th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 573 (16th)

I was a little surprised to see the Packers this high on the list, as it didn't feel like they'd suffered any major offseason losses at the skill positions. That's probably true, but it's also true that they fed 115 targets to Graham and Allison last year. There's an opportunity for Funchess, Allen Lazard of Jace Sternberger to hit 80-plus targets, though recent seasons have brought nothing but disappointment in the search for a viable second weapon behind Davante Adams

• The 2019 Packers finished 28th in pace and 18th in neutral-situation pace. The pre-LaFleur McCarthy teams were similarly average-to-below-average in pace.
• The 2019 Packers were No. 7 in RB target share (24.5).
• Adams averaged 10.6 targets in 12 games, finishing third in target share (29 percent).
• Jordy Nelson (in 2016) was the last Packer besides Adams to reach 100 targets.

4. Los Angeles Rams

126 Vacated Targets — Brandin Cooks (72), Todd Gurley (49), Mike Thomas (5)

0 Added Targets — N/A

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 62.0 percent (8th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 632 (3rd)

Given their significant offseason losses on defense combined with a difficult NFC West schedule, the Rams offense won't necessarily regress toward league-average in pass attempts. Sean McVay has always been uptempo and pass-first early in games, with frequent fourth-quarter leads perhaps obscuring that reality before last year.

The defense doesn't have much behind Jalen Ramsey and Aaron Donald, while the O-line is bringing back the same guys who stunk it up last season. Jared Goff is a legit candidate to lead the NFL in pass attempts, which could mean even more opportunities for Robert Woods (139 targets), Cooper Kupp (134) and Tyler Higbee (89). Meanwhile, the No. 3 receiver job will go to either Reynolds or second-round pick Van Jefferson.

• Under Sean McVay, the Rams have finished 1st, 3rd and 3rd in neutral-situation pace.
• Cooks and Reynolds combined for 115 targets last year.
• Higbee and Gerald Everett combined for 149.
• The Rams had only seven players with more than seven targets... per usual, McVay utilized a tight rotation on offense.

5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers  

108 Vacated Targets — Breshad Perriman (69), Peyton Barber, (24), Bobo Wilson (11), Ishmael Hyman (4)

0 Added Targets — N/A

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 62.3 percent (7th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 630 (4th)

This one is kind of misleading, seeing as Rob Gronkowski didn't play in 2019 but did draw 72 targets in 13 games for the 2018 Patriots. There's obviously tough target competition in this offense, but it helps that the Bucs haven't replaced Perriman, instead relying on Scotty Miller, Justin Watson or fifth-round pick Tyler Johnson to handle the No. 3 receiver role. An offense with a subpar No. 3 WR and no pass-catching stud at RB might be able to support big fantasy seasons for each of Gronk, Chris Godwin and Mike Evans.

• The 2019 Bucs were No. 8 in overall pace but only No. 15 in neutral-situation pace.
• O.J. Howard and Cameron Brate combined for 108 targets last year.

The Bottom 5

28. Buffalo Bills

35 Vacated Targets — Zay Jones (18), Frank Gore (16), Senorise Perry (1)

95 Added Targets — Stefon Diggs (94), Taiwan Jones (1)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 55.0 percent (26th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 513 (T-24th)

With a strong defense, a solid running game and a QB who likes to scramble on dropbacks, the Bills are a good bet to finish in the bottom half of the league for pass attempts. The addition of Diggs could push them away from being bottom 10 for a sixth consecutive year, but the passing game does appear to be facing a bit of a crunch, after John Brown and Cole Beasley combined for 221 targets last season despite sitting out Week 17. That number figures to drop in 2019, even if a lot of Diggs' volume comes from the share that went to scrubs last season.

• The 2019 Bills ranked third in WR target share (66.5 percent) and seventh in usage of 11 personnel (70 percent of snaps).
• Jones, Isaiah McKenzie, Robert Foster, Duke Williams and Andre Roberts all saw run in the Nos. 3/4 WR roles last year, combining for 102 targets.
• Tight ends Dawson Knox (50), Tyler Kroft (14), Tommy Sweeney (13) and Lee Smith (5) combined for 82 targets.
• Devin Singletary (41), Frank Gore (16) and T.J. Yeldon (15) combined for 72 targets.
• The 2019 Bills were 12th in pace and 11th in neutral-situation pace, up from 20th and 15th, respectively, the prior year.
• The 2019 Bills were No. 3 in pass rate on early downs in neutral situations, but they were pretty cautious when playing with leads.

29. Jacksonville Jaguars

56 Vacated Targets — Seth DeValve (18), Geoff Swaim (17), Nick O'Leary (13), Marqise Lee (4), Ben Koyack (3), Cody Davis (1)

121 Added Targets — Tyler Eifert (63), Chris Thompson (58)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 61.9 percent (9th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 589 (12th)

Thompson could easily match his 2019 total by simply taking away the bulk of Leonard Fournette's 100 targets from last year. The Fournette-in-a-three-down-role experiment was never wise, and new OC Jay Gruden isn't likely to tolerate it. Then we have Eifert, whose 2019 volume in Cincinnati was similar to what the Jags got from their TE rotation last year. The team hopes 2019 third-round pick Josh Oliver (6 targets) will also be involved after an injury-plagued rookie year, but Eifert at least figures to get the snaps in obvious passing situations.

The bigger crunch for Jacksonville is at wide receiver, where DJ Chark is locked in as the No. 1 but everything else appears fluid. Dede Westbrook (101 targets), Chris Conley (90) and Keelan Cole (35) are all back, joined by second-round pick Laviska Shenault. The 191 combined targets from Westbrook and Conley could be cut in half if Shenault earns a regular spot in the offense. 

• The 2019 Jags were 16th in pace and 30th in neutral-situation pace, i.e., they tried to play slow but often were forced to hurry things up while trailing.
• Gruden's teams finished bottom 10 in neutral-situation pace in five of his six seasons in Washington, but his Cincinnati offenses (2011-13) ranked 14th, 7th and 13th, per TJ Hernandez.

30. Seattle Seahawks

79 Vacated Targets — Jaron Brown (28), Malik Turner (22), C.J. Prosise (12), Josh Gordon (11), Nick Vannett (5), Tyrone Swoopes (1)

152 Added Targets — Greg Olsen (82), Phillip Dorsett (54), Carlos Hyde (16), 

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 54.3 percent (27th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 517 (23rd)

On the surface, this might appear problematic for Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf. However, Olsen and Dorsett figure to take a bunch of targets from players that remain on the roster, namely Jacob Hollister (59 in 11 games) and David Moore (34). If Olsen and Dissly can stay healthy at the same time, the Seahawks likely will shift to more 12 personnel, which presumably would take snaps away from Dorsett rather than Metcalf or Lockett. The Seahawks like to use Lockett in the slot, but he's also been productive on his outside snaps. Per PFF, Lockett produced 2.0 yards per route on outside snaps the past two seasons, compared to 1.95 in the slot.

• Brown, Turner, Gordon and Moore all spent time in the No. 3 WR role last year, combining for 95 targets.
• Hollister and Will Dissly (27 targets in six games) combined for a 64-611-7 line on 86 targets.
• The 2019 Seahawks used 11 personnel on 72.5 percent of plays, the fourth-highest rate in the NFL.

31. Chicago Bears

80 Vacated Targets — Taylor Gabriel (48), Trey Burton (24), Mike Davis (8)

154 Added Targets — Jimmy Graham (60), Ted Ginn (56), Demetrius Harris (27), Trevor Davis (11)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 61.3 percent (11th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 580 (14th)

A contract with $9 million guaranteed suggests the Bears expect Graham to handle more than 60 targets, but that equation partially depends on his ability to get open, a skill he seems to have lost in 2017 and hasn't been able to relocate in subsequent seasons. The Bears might get a bit more from their TE and No. 3 WR spots this year, but not to an extent that should threaten Allen Robinson. If anything, I'd worry about Tarik Cohen (104 targets) and Anthony Miller (85) losing a little work, though it's far from a sure thing.

• The 2019 Bears were fifth in both RB targets (147) and RB target share (26 percent).
• They were T-28th in TE targets (69) and 29th in TE target share (12.2 percent).
• Robinson was No. 4 in target share (27 percent) and No. 5 in air-yard share (39 percent).
• Gabriel's 48 targets came in nine games, and Javon Wims averaged 5.2 targets in six starts.
• The 2019 Bears were 17th in pace and 22nd in neutral-situation pace. The 2018 Bears had been 30th and 27th, respectively. So, the faster pace and increased pass volume was partially intentional and partially a product of less favorable game script.

32. Las Vegas Raiders

66 Vacated Targets — DeAndre Washington (41), Trevor Davis (10), Ryan Grant (9), JJ Nelson (5), Dwayne Harris (1)

161 Added Targets — Jason Witten (83), Nelson Agholor (69), Devontae Booker (9)

2019 Pass-Play Rate — 55.8 percent (25th)

2019 Pass Attempts — 523 (21st)

This is one where the target competition is legitimately concerning for the returning veterans, even after we accept that Witten won't come close to 83 looks again (and Agholor might not even make the team). It isn't the free-agent additions that are concerning; it's the draft picks. The Raiders added WR Henry Ruggs (Round 1), RB/WR Lynn Bowden (Round 3) and WR Bryan Edwards (Round 3) to an offense that already had Josh Jacobs, Darren Waller, Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow and Jalen Richard.

Common sense dictates Jacobs and Waller will still get plenty of chances, but it's hard to see room for significant growth beyond their 2019 target volume, and Waller could even take a step back. Meanwhile, Williams and Renfrow may find themselves battling for snaps if the rookies get up to speed in a hurry.