This article is part of our NFL Game Previews series.
San Francisco (+1) vs. Kansas City in Miami, 54.5 o/u
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
I'm tempted to call this one the Condiment Bowl, as the Chiefs and their ketchup-and-mustard color scheme take on the ketchup-and-fancy mustard 49ers, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this was one of the most intriguing possible Super Bowl matchups when the playoffs started. The Niners were arguably the most complete team in the league all year, boasting a stout defense, a dynamic running game led by late-season surprise Raheem Mostert and dangerous weapons in the passing game, while the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and a defense that got better as the season progressed. In fact, the statistical case for this turning into a defensive battle rather than a shootout is surprisingly strong. Both teams finished the regular season in the top eight in points per game allowed (KC seventh at 19.3, SF eighth at 19.4) and QB rating against (KC fifth at 80.8, SF seventh at 83.0). On the other hand, both squads kicked butt in the postseason to get here — the Niners won their two games by an average score of 32-15, while the Chiefs trampled their opposition by an average score of 43-28. Matching up strengths and weaknesses would seem to tilt the scales in favor of San Francisco, as their running game could steamroll a Kansas City front seven that had trouble slowing running backs most of the year. However, the Chiefs may have plugged that hole
San Francisco (+1) vs. Kansas City in Miami, 54.5 o/u
Sunday, 6:30 p.m. EST
I'm tempted to call this one the Condiment Bowl, as the Chiefs and their ketchup-and-mustard color scheme take on the ketchup-and-fancy mustard 49ers, but that doesn't take away from the fact that this was one of the most intriguing possible Super Bowl matchups when the playoffs started. The Niners were arguably the most complete team in the league all year, boasting a stout defense, a dynamic running game led by late-season surprise Raheem Mostert and dangerous weapons in the passing game, while the Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and a defense that got better as the season progressed. In fact, the statistical case for this turning into a defensive battle rather than a shootout is surprisingly strong. Both teams finished the regular season in the top eight in points per game allowed (KC seventh at 19.3, SF eighth at 19.4) and QB rating against (KC fifth at 80.8, SF seventh at 83.0). On the other hand, both squads kicked butt in the postseason to get here — the Niners won their two games by an average score of 32-15, while the Chiefs trampled their opposition by an average score of 43-28. Matching up strengths and weaknesses would seem to tilt the scales in favor of San Francisco, as their running game could steamroll a Kansas City front seven that had trouble slowing running backs most of the year. However, the Chiefs may have plugged that hole down the stretch as players like Chris Jones returned to full health. They held Derrick Henry to 69 yards and a 3.6 YPC in the AFC championship, and the last back to rush for 100-plus yards against them was Josh Jacobs in Week 13. Henry's 69 yards was the best performance against them since then. The Niners' defense also may not be the juggernaut they appeared to be in the first half. Sure, they stifled Kirk Cousins in the divisional round, but Aaron Rodgers fired up 326 yards against them in the NFC championship — his highest total since Week 7 — and in their last seven games they've allowed 25.3 points a game, with the Vikings being the only team they've managed to hold below 20 during that stretch. Drew Brees' 349 yards and five TDs in Week 14 led to 46 points (though the Niners still squeaked out a win) and Mahomes, who's thrown for 615 yards and an 8:0 TD:INT through two playoff games this year, is entirely capable of matching that kind of performance. In fact, Jimmy Garoppolo's two-game postseason totals don't come close to what Mahomes has done in either of his games. The Chiefs showed against the Titans what can happen if they force a run-heavy team to have to air it out to keep pace. Two strong, balanced teams, two creative head coaches, two equally plausible paths to victory. The stage appears to be set for a Super Bowl for the ages.
The Skinny
SF injuries: RB Tevin Coleman (questionable, shoulder), LB Kwon Alexander (questionable, pectoral), S Jaquiski Tartt (questionable, ribs)
KC injuries: none
SF DFS targets: Mostert / Coleman / Matt Breida (KC 28th in YPC allowed, 26th in rushing yards per game allowed, 29th in rushing DVOA, 20th in passing DVOA vs. RB), Kendrick Bourne (KC 21st in DVOA vs. WR3)
KC DFS targets: Damien Williams (SF 23rd in YPC allowed), Sammy Watkins (SF 14th in DVOA vs. WR2)
SF DFS fades: Garoppolo (KC eighth in passing yards per game allowed, sixth in YPA allowed, sixth in passing DVOA), Emmanuel Sanders (KC third in DVOA vs. WR1), George Kittle (KC fourth in DVOA vs. TE)
KC DFS fades: Mahomes (SF first in passing yards per game allowed, first in YPA allowed, second in passing DVOA), Travis Kelce (SF second in DVOA vs. TE)
Key stat: SF was 21st in red-zone offense during the regular season, scoring a TD on 53.2 percent (33-for-62) of RZ possessions; KC was t-9th in red-zone defense at 50.9 percent (29-for-57)
Weather forecast: clear, temperature in the mid-60s, 8-10 mph wind, 0-5 percent chance of rain
The Scoop
Mostert leads the SF backfield with 80 combined yards and a score, while Breida adds 50 combined yards. Garoppolo throws for 240 yards and TDs to Deebo Samuel and Bourne, while Nick Bosa returns a Darwin Thompson fumble to the house. Williams leads the KC backfield with 90 combined yards. Mahomes takes home the Super Bowl MVP trophy, throwing for 340 yards and four touchdowns, two to Tyreek Hill and one each to Kelce and Watkins. Chiefs, 34-31
Last week's record: 2-0, 0-2 ATS, 1-1 o/u
2019 playoff record: 5-5, 3-7 ATS, 4-6 o/u
2019 regular-season record: 157-98-1, 123-125-8 ATS, 127-122-7 o/u
2018 regular-season record: 160-94-2, 112-134-10 ATS, 113-139-4 o/u
Lifetime record: 793-482-5, 593-637-50 ATS, 493-511-20 o/u (o/u not tracked in 2015)
