Exploiting the Matchups: Week 16 Start/Sit

Welcome to fantasy championship week, where the decisions you get wrong may haunt you for the next eight months. One solution? Don't take it so seriously. A better solution? Don't screw up in the first place. Good luck! 

Before we get into specific players to upgrade or downgrade for Week 16, here are some of my favorite tools for analyzing matchups:

• Jeff Erickson's value meter
• RotoWire's weekly projections
• RotoWire's weekly composite rankings
• Betting odds
• RotoWire's pages for advanced stats and TE route data.
• Pace stats and DVOA from Football Outsiders
• Next Gen Stats from NFL.com
• Player Grades and Premium Stats from Pro Football Focus
• Personnel Grouping Frequencies and Run:Pass Ratios from SharpFootballStats.com
• airyards.com
• Opponent and teammate injuries
• Target share
• Snap counts
• Defense vs. Position stats

Note: Discussion below mostly is limited to players that are being started in 10-to-90 percent of lineups on Yahoo. There are plenty of other players with good or bad matchups, but we'll focus our energy on the guys most likely to be involved in difficult lineup decisions.

Note, Pt. 2: References to 'fantasy points' are based on scoring with 25/10 yardage, 4/6 TDs and 0.5 PPR, i.e., standard settings on Yahoo and FanDuel.

Upgrades

 QUARTERBACK

• Andy Dalton, CIN at MIA

I don't think many fantasy managers have made it this far into the playoffs with rosters weak enough to consider starting Dalton. The exception, of course, would be superflex or two-QB formats, where any warm body facing the Dolphins should be treated as a viable (and desirable) starter. Personally, I'm toying with the idea of starting Dalton over Jimmy Garoppolo as my second QB in a championship matchup, though I'll probably settle on the latter given that he also gets a decent draw (home against the Rams). The fact it's even a consideration is a testament to the incompetence of Miami's defense, a unit ranked dead last in DVOA against the pass (43.6%) and 30th in fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks (21.6 per game). That DVOA mark is the worst from any defense since the 2015 Saints.

• Honorable Mentions: Deshaun Watson, HOU at TB; Matt Ryan, ATL vs. JAX; Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA vs. CIN; Philip Rivers, LAC vs. OAK; Dwayne Haskins, WAS vs. NYG; Drew Lock, DEN vs. DET

RUNNING BACK

• Marlon Mack, IND vs. CAR

Mack has played two games since he returned from a hand injury, facing a pair of top-five run defenses (Tampa Bay, New Orleans) on the road. He now returns home to Indianapolis, where the Colts play host to a sinking Panthers squad that ranks 32nd in run defense DVOA (18.1%), 32nd in yards allowed per carry (5.2) and 30th in rushing yards allowed per game (140.2). Jordan Wilkins and Nyheim Hines might steal a bit of work, but it was Mack who accounted for 11 of the Colts' 14 RB carries prior to the final drive of last week's blowout loss. Now playing as a seven-point favorite against a team that can't stop the run, Mack is a strong bet for 15-to-20 touches.

• Tarik Cohen, CHI vs. KC

Cohen is more than a year removed from his last blow-up game, but he's quietly returned to low-end RB2 or FLEX status in PPR leagues, where he's scored 7.5 or more points each of the past six weeks. His Week 16 matchup shapes up favorably in terms of both volume and efficiency, with the Bears installed as six-point underdogs against a team that's allowed the second-most receiving yards (57.5 per game) to running backs. Kansas City's improvement against the run in recent weeks could actually work in Cohen's favor, potentially encouraging Matt Nagy to use his scatback more than he uses David Montgomery.

• Honorable Mentions: Devonta Freeman, ATL (vs. JAX); Phillip Lindsay, DEN (vs. DET); Ronald Jones, TB vs. HOU

WIDE RECEIVER

• Breshad Perriman and Justin Watson, TB vs. HOU

Opportunity has come knocking at the perfect time, with Mike Evans, Chris Godwin and Scott Miller all succumbing to hamstring injuries while the Bucs finish out their season against the Lions, Texans and Falcons — teams that rank 29th, 26th and 25th, respectively, in pass defense DVOA. Perriman already smashed in the first of those three matchups, producing a 5-113-3 receiving line while handling a season-high 89 percent of snaps. He also had five or more targets and 70 or more yards both of the previous two weeks, coming on strong in the final month of what previously had been an ugly season. Watson now figures to join Perriman with an every-down role, two weeks removed from a 5-59-1 receiving line of his own. No doubt both players have their flaws, but they also have athleticism, matchup and opportunity all aligning at the same time.

• Mike Williams, LAC vs. OAK

Williams has a 12-game streak with at least one gain of 20 or more yards, and it finally paid off with trips to the end zone in his past two outings, not to mention a 100-yard game three weeks ago. The target volume may not be dependable, but we can safely pencil him in for a big play or three, facing an Oakland defense that's allowed a league-high 16 completions of 40-plus yards. The Raiders rank dead last in both yards allowed per pass attempt (8.5) and yards allowed per completion (13.3), with PFF's grading system placing them at 27th for pass coverage (49.1), 24th for pass rush (67.2) and 31st for tackling (38.4). Eleven teams have allowed more fantasy points to wide receivers, but none has allowed more yards per target (9.7).

• Honorable Mentions: Terry McLaurin, WAS vs. NYG; Michael Gallup, DAL at PHI; Tyler Boyd, Alex Erickson and John Ross, CIN at MIA; Darius Slayton, Golden Tate and Sterling Shepard, NYG at WAS; Greg Ward, PHI vs. DAL; Corey Davis, TEN vs. NO

TIGHT END

• Austin Hooper, ATL vs. JAX

While a 3-20-0 receiving was disappointing for fantasy managers, Hooper did return to his normal role in last week's 29-22 win over San Francisco, seeing six targets and 82 percent of snaps. The production should follow the usage this upcoming weekend in a much better matchup, with Hooper facing a Jacksonville defense that's 31st in DVOA against tight ends (27.3%) and 29th in YPT (8.7). There's also a good chance for Hooper to pile up volume, as he's averaged 7.2 targets per game in an offense that had Calvin Ridley (abdomen) and Mohamed Sanu competing for volume throughout much of the year. The Falcons still have Julio Jones, but there's no question about Hooper being the No. 2 receiving weapon now that Ridley is on injured reserve.

• Honorable Mentions: Hunter Henry, LAC vs. OAK; Jacob Hollister, SEA vs. ARZ; Dallas Goedert, PHI vs. DAL; O.J. Howard, TB vs. HOU; Mike Gesicki, MIA vs. CIN; Tyler Eifert, CIN at MIA; Kaden Smith, NYG at WAS

Kicker

• Younghoe Koo, ATL vs. JAX

Koo has scored six or more fantasy points in each of his six appearances with Atlanta, including 15, 11, 8 and 18 points in dome games. His large ratio of FGs:PATs isn't sustainable, but he's more than held up his end of the bargain by converting 89.5 percent of field-goal attempts. The Falcons have every reason to trust him, and they should have plenty of scoring opportunities with the third-largest implied total (27) of Week 16.

• Honorable mentions: Jason Myers, SEA vs. ARZ; Michael Badgley, LAC vs. OAK; Chase McLaughlin, IND vs. CAR

Downgrades

QUARTERBACK

• Mitchell Trubisky, CHI vs. KC

Perception seems to lag behind reality as it relates to the Kansas City defense, with memories of last year's numerous shootouts perhaps lingering in the minds of fantasy managers. Led by DL Chris Jones and S Tyrann Mathieu, the Chiefs have caught fire in the second half of the season, rising to No. 6 in pass defense DVOA (-11.2%) and No. 8 in net yards allowed per attempt (5.8). Each of the last five quarterbacks to face Kansas City fell shy of 20 fantasy points, including breakout sensation Ryan Tannehill (never thought I'd say that!) and the artists formerly known as Tom Brady and Philip Rivers.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions:  Brady, NE vs. BUF; Aaron Rodgers, GB at MIN; Josh Allen, BUF at NE; Jared Goff, LAR at SF; Baker Mayfield, CLE vs. BAL; Derek Carr, OAK at LAC; Sam Darnold, NYJ vs. PIT

RUNNING BACK

• Carlos Hyde, HOU at TB

Hyde is the 1,000-yard runner nobody cares about, with just five touchdowns and nine receptions to complement his top-10 spot on the rushing leaderboard. The lack of pass-catching production makes him both inconsistent and matchup-dependent, hinting at a dud performance Week 16 against a Bucs defense that ranks No. 1 in DVOA against the run (29.7%), No. 2 in YPC (3.4) and No. 3 in fantasy points allowed to running backs (14.4). It's also a rough spot for Duke Johnson, considering Tampa has limited RBs to a league-low 4.2 YPT.

• Devin Singletary, BUF at NE

The Patriots haven't been dominant against the run in the same way they've shut down passing attacks, but the net result has nonetheless been ugly for opposing running backs, depriving them of both volume (19.2 carries per game, sixth-fewest) and scoring opportunities (league-low two TDs). While his dominance of snaps in the Buffalo backfield gives Singletary a nice floor in any matchup, there's a good chance fantasy mangers get stuck with about 80 yards and no touchdown if they start him in a championship matchup. Frank Gore is still poaching goal-line work, and the Patriots have done a nice job against running backs in the passing game, ranking fifth in both catch rate (70.8 percent) and YPT (5.1).

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Latavius Murray, NO at TEN; Jamaal Williams, GB at MIN

WIDE RECEIVER

• Odell Beckham Jr., CLE at BAL

Despite seeing a season-high 13 targets last week, Beckham finished his afternoon with a pedestrian 8-66-0 receiving line, falling shy of 15 PPR points for a seventh time in his past eight games (a home matchup against Miami was the lone exception). He reportedly wants to continue playing through a sports hernia for the final two weeks of the season, but we can't rule out the possibility of his workload being scaled back now that the Browns officially are out of the playoff hunt. Even if he does get a full allotment of snaps, Beckham will be far from the best version of himself, while Ravens cornerbacks Marcus Peters, Jimmy Smith and Marlon Humphrey all have been playing at a consistently high level. Baltimore ranks fourth in pass defense DVOA (-15.9%) and fourth in YPT allowed (7.4) to wide receivers.

• DK Metcalf, SEA vs. ARZ

My concern here is volume rather than efficiency, as the Seahawks are favored by 9.5 points and still prefer a run-heavy approach when playing with a lead. Russell Wilson threw 28 passes in the first matchup between these NFC West rivals, marking his second of six games this season with fewer than 30 attempts. Metcalf has scored four touchdowns in those six games, but he's done it while averaging just 2.5 catches for 37.2 yards on 4.7 targets, including a career-worst 1-6-0 receiving line in the first matchup between Seattle and Arizona. For all their issues on defense, the Cardinals mostly have struggled against tight ends and slot receivers rather than perimeter guys.

• Not-so-Honorable Mentions: Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp, LAR at SF; John Brown and Cole Beasley, BUF at NE; Kenny Golladay and Danny Amendola, DET at DEN; Robby Anderson, NYJ vs. PIT; Russell Gage, ATL vs. JAX

TIGHT END

• Greg Olsen, CAR at IND

Olsen has a good enough matchup on paper, playing indoors against a defense ranked 21st in fantasy points (10.3) and 24th in DVOA (6.3%) against tight ends. The problem? He'll be trying to catch passes from rookie third-round pick Will Grier, potentially while splitting snaps with Ian Thomas. The second part is far from a sure thing, but it certainly would make sense for a 34-year-old returning from a concussion, playing for a team that's out of the playoff hunt.

• Not-so-Honorable Mention: Jimmy Graham, GB at MIN; Dawson Knox, BUF at NE