This article is part of our Survivor series.
Unless you had the Ravens or Patriots available, last week was a minefield with losses by the Chargers, Cowboys and Chiefs. And the Packers barely squeaked by, thanks to an assist from the referees.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Dolphins | 69.70% | 1000 | 90.91 | 6.34 |
| 49ers | REDSKINS | 22.00% | 425 | 80.95 | 4.19 |
| PACKERS | Raiders | 3.10% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.83 |
| Patriots | JETS | 1.90% | 425 | 80.95 | 0.36 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 0.90% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.32 |
| Jaguars | BENGALS | 0.80% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.29 |
| GIANTS | Cardinals | 0.40% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.17 |
| Rams | FALCONS | 0.40% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.15 |
| SEAHAWKS | Ravens | 0.20% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.07 |
| BEARS | Saints | 0.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.04 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 0.10% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
What an interesting slate! The Bills are the biggest favorites by far, but also 70 percent owned. The 49ers and Pats are tied for the second biggest, though the Pats are lower owned (and also not available for many.) And the Packers are low-owned and a possible pivot if you want to go pot odds against the Bills.
Let's compare the Bills to the 49ers first. A Bills win/49ers loss happens 17.29 percent of the time. A 49ers win/Bills loss happens 7.29 percent. The ratio of 17.29 to 7.29 is 2.37.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if the Bills win/49ers lose, 22 people are out with the 49ers and another two people on other
Unless you had the Ravens or Patriots available, last week was a minefield with losses by the Chargers, Cowboys and Chiefs. And the Packers barely squeaked by, thanks to an assist from the referees.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
| Team | Opponent | %Taken* | Vegas ML** | Vegas Odds | Expected Loss |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BILLS | Dolphins | 69.70% | 1000 | 90.91 | 6.34 |
| 49ers | REDSKINS | 22.00% | 425 | 80.95 | 4.19 |
| PACKERS | Raiders | 3.10% | 275 | 73.33 | 0.83 |
| Patriots | JETS | 1.90% | 425 | 80.95 | 0.36 |
| Chiefs | BRONCOS | 0.90% | 180 | 64.29 | 0.32 |
| Jaguars | BENGALS | 0.80% | 175 | 63.64 | 0.29 |
| GIANTS | Cardinals | 0.40% | 140 | 58.33 | 0.17 |
| Rams | FALCONS | 0.40% | 165 | 62.26 | 0.15 |
| SEAHAWKS | Ravens | 0.20% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.07 |
| BEARS | Saints | 0.10% | 170 | 62.96 | 0.04 |
| COWBOYS | Eagles | 0.10% | 145 | 59.18 | 0.04 |
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
What an interesting slate! The Bills are the biggest favorites by far, but also 70 percent owned. The 49ers and Pats are tied for the second biggest, though the Pats are lower owned (and also not available for many.) And the Packers are low-owned and a possible pivot if you want to go pot odds against the Bills.
Let's compare the Bills to the 49ers first. A Bills win/49ers loss happens 17.29 percent of the time. A 49ers win/Bills loss happens 7.29 percent. The ratio of 17.29 to 7.29 is 2.37.
In our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if the Bills win/49ers lose, 22 people are out with the 49ers and another two people on other teams. That leaves 76 people remaining, or an equity stake of $1000/76 = $13.16
If the 49ers win/Bills lose, 70 people are out with the Bills plus two more, leaving 28 survivors. $1000/28 = $35.71. The ratio of 35.71 to 13.16 is 2.71. That means if you believe the Vegas odds and polling numbers, the Bills are a pot-odds fade.
The Patriots are an even better play than the 49ers as they're as likely to win, but even less owned. And the Packers are an option, but the math will put them as too risky vs. the Bills.
My Picks
1. San Francisco 49ers
The Patriots are lower owned, but I have a bad feeling about that game in New York, so I'm ranking the 49ers ahead of them. The Redskins are a doormat, but the 49ers have to travel across the country for an early body-clock game and are missing key offensive linemen. Still, the Redskins should have a tough time moving the ball against that defense. I give the 49ers an 80 percent chance to win this game.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Bills should crush the Dolphins at home, but Miami has more upside with Ryan Fitzpatrick, and Buffalo's offense is capable of laying an egg. The Bills excellent pass defense won't matter as much if the game is a low-scoring slug-fest on the ground, either. I give the Bills an 88 percent chance to win this game.
3. New England Patriots
The Jets are no longer a doormat with Sam Darnold back, they're confident, and they're at home. The Patriots don't lose very often to league average opponents, but their offense isn't what it used to be and like the Bills they could get caught up in a low-scoring defensive struggle. I give the Patriots a 77 percent chance to win this game.
4. Green Bay Packers
The Raiders are decent this year, and the Packers could be without Davante Adams, giving them arguably the league's worse receiving corps. But Aaron Rodgers looks like himself, the offensive line is excellent and the pass defense is good. I give the Packers a 75 percent chance to win at Lambeau Field.
5. Seattle Seahawks
The Ravens have underwhelmed on defense, and their passing game has done most of its damage against the league's worst teams. I'd expect Russell Wilson and the offense to move the ball effectively at home. I give the Seahawks a 70 percent chance to win this game.
Notable Omissions: Chiefs, Jaguars, Giants, Rams, Bears, Cowboys
The Chiefs are banged up and traveling on a short week against a tough defense, the Jaguars are a league average team playing on the road, the Giants can't stop anyone, the Rams are a poor man's version of the Chiefs (and also on the road), the Bears face a tough New Orleans team and the Cowboys face a solid Eagles squad.
