This article is part of our Survivor series.
Last week was costly if like me you used the Chiefs (25 percent owned), the Chargers or the Bears. That's roughly 30 percent of pools that got bounced.
Let's take a look at this week's slate:
|Team||Opponent||%Taken*||Vegas ML**||Vegas Odds||Expected Loss|
Home teams in CAPS
* According to "polling" data on Officefootballpools.com
** Average of the two moneylines
As usual, the Pats are the easy call given their likelihood of winning and their ownership levels. The question is whether to use the Ravens (35.7 percent owned), the Cowboys (14.6) or the Chargers (3.7.)
A Ravens win/Cowboys loss happens 84*23 percent of the time = 19.32. A Cowboys win/Ravens loss 12.32 percent of the time. The ratio of 19.32/12.32 = 1.57. That's your risk ratio.
But in our hypothetical 100-person, $10 buy-in pool, if the Ravens win and Cowboys lose, 15 people are down with the Cowboys plus another 10 on other teams, leaving 75 remaining. $1000/75 = $13.33, i.e., your equity in the pool.
If the Cowboys win and Ravens lose, 36 people are out with the Ravens plus 10 on other teams, leaving 54 remaining.