East Coast Offense: The Fix Is In

This article is part of our East Coast Offense series.

The Fix Is In

No one likes to watch games marred by penalty flags and endless reviews, but there are more of both than ever this year. It seems like we have to look over our shoulders on every other big play to make sure that it won't be taken away from us. Leonard Fournette busts a Beast-Quake-like 81-yard run, and I can't enjoy it entirely because I'm waiting for the holding call. 

Some of this is due to technology -- we see more camera angles and replays, so the league can't get away with as many bad calls anymore. We see the non-PI call against the Rams in the NFC Championship game last year, and we know the wrong team went to the Super Bowl. But getting it right has a major cost in time, watchability and, more importantly, credibility. 

The credibility issue comes up, even if the calls are largely correct by the letter of the rulebook. The problem isn't simply that the refs get things wrong, or that the process takes too long, but that penalty calls, right or wrong, are making increasingly large contributions to the outcomes of games. It's a case of "the medium is the message" -- game results dictated by a zebra into a mic cost the league credibility. We want the outcomes dictated not by officials from the league, but by the play on the field. One could argue it's semantics -- that players on the field held or interfered or roughed, and the ref is simply pointing that out -- but roughing is not the equivalent, from a viewing perspective, of a well-executed 15-yard completion. And what to point out is subject to virtually unlimited discretion. 

Results issued from the authorities rather than from the execution of plays is a type of game fixing. Even if it's not cheating to generate gambling profits a la Tim Donaghy, it's literally "fixing" a result based on something wrong that happened on the field. We can't do away with penalties entirely, but too much fixing at some point becomes the message: The NFL officials will look at the game play on the field and decide what to do about it. They will issue the result by fiat. And this is even in the best case when the calls are largely correct. 

The solution is not easy because technology has exposed the game's flaws, but there are a few obvious moves the league could make. For one, make unnecessary roughness five yards instead of 15 except in the most extreme cases. If five yards isn't enough to deter people hitting the QB, then QBs will be hit more. The babying of quarterbacks certainly didn't keep Ben Roethlisberger, Drew Brees, Mitch Trubisky or Cam Newton healthy, and it's only been four weeks. Moreover, before the ticky-tack game-changing personal foul rules were enforced, teams were deterred from dirty play by each other. That might sound harsh, but turning enforcement exclusively over to officials not only eats at the game's credibility, but it hasn't seemed to make the game much safer. 

Let the officials call pass interference and holding as they see it, but train them to err on the side of missing infractions rather than calling questionable or non-existent ones. Give officials a bonus after each game that gets cut into a certain amount for missed calls, five times that amount for questionable ones and 10 times the amount for outright fabrications. 

Make defensive holding a five yard penalty, but not an automatic first down. Get rid of illegal formation penalties that don't affect the play, get rid of 12-men on the field when it's a guy who's running off two feet from the sideline when the ball is snapped, get rid of holding penalties when there's a fair catch. Do everything you can so that the outcome is not dictated by fiat. 

Bottom line, at one level we can view over-officiating as a trade-off between watchability and accuracy, but we're approaching the line where the game's credibility itself is at stake. In a world where we wait on the Federal Reserve to tell us what stocks and houses are worth, and MLB to determine via the baseball how many home runs our favorite players will hit, it would be nice to have something to watch that feels real, even if it's flawed. 

Guessing the Lines

A lot of these moved after I posted this, so they won't be the same for Beating the Book,  but early on, I like the Giants, Steelers and Redskins. 

Of course, I reserve the right to change my mind in Beating the Book.

Week 4 Observations

• The Cowboys for God knows what reason love to run the ball on 2nd-and-1. They did this against the Saints even though Zeke Elliott has not had success running against this front for the last eight quarters. It makes no sense to move the ball two yards up the field for a 1st-and-10 rather than have it two yards back at 2-and-1 when the latter is a far better down and distance.

• Alvin Kamara is impossible to tackle. The Cowboys held him largely in check because they have the league's best linebackers, but even so, it was a chore.

• Teddy Bridgewater played passably as a caretaker, and the pick wasn't his fault. The Saints have won at Seattle and against Dallas without Drew Brees. Michael Thomas caught all nine of his targets — maybe he, Kamara and the system make Brees more than the other way around.

• Gardner Minshew looked like Fran Tarkenton — scrambling inside the pocket with bodies around him to make big throws on key downs. The stats don't jump out much, and he took five sacks, but he got the win against an ostensibly good defense on the road.

• Leonard Fournette has finally diverged sufficiently from the Trent Richardson career path. His 81-yard run was Beast-Quake-esque. It would be nice to see him get into the end zone one of these days, but the usage is there, and this offense isn't a total doormat.

• D.J. Chark had a TD called back and he also made a great deep catch out of bounds. He's a rising star, modest numbers Sunday notwithstanding.

• Joe Flacco looked reasonably competent (though Jalen Ramsey was out), and both Emmanuel Sanders and Courtland Sutton are top-30 wideouts.

• Kirk Cousins was a pinata. He had no chance against the Bears defense. I believe you can still win with defense and running, but you need a mobile QB and a decent offensive line.

• I didn't watch enough of Chase Daniel to form an opinion, but I saw him on Thanksgiving and against the Giants last year. He might not be worse than Mitch Trubisky, but he's not good, either.

• How funny would it be if the Cardinals had to draft another QB in 2020? Kyler Murray scored a rushing TD, but no wideout saw more than five targets in a game where the Cardinals were trailing throughout. David Johnson's getting plenty of work as a receiver though.

• Larry Fitzgerald moved into second place on the all-time receptions list, nearly fumbling the tying reception before getting a short pass set-up specifically to get him past the milestone. Maybe he'll pass Jerry Rice when he's 45.

• Everyone's sleeper pick for the week, Will Dissly, delivered with 57 yards and a score, continuing the the trend of TEs torching the Cardinals. Maybe next week, Tyler Eifert will be the recommendation? I'm always surprised when it works out so straightforwardly, as if the team with the weakness isn't shoring it up, or the opponent is exactly like the previous ones.

• Tyler Lockett was forgotten again, but I'll chalk that one up to game-flow. Chris Carson was a workhorse, and he did not fumble.

• I was afraid of the Chargers, so I put two survivor entries on the Rams.

• Jared Goff threw for 517 yards, but had three picks, two sacks and the game-sealing fumble. The Bucs defense is decent, but the Rams don't have a single star on their offense.

• Why are the Rams unwilling to get third-round pick Darrell Henderson on the field? They need a spark. Todd Gurley looked sluggish, but he scored twice and finally got involved in the passing game.

• Mike Evans got on the board with a 67-yard TD, but until then, it was all Chris Godwin. Seems like they alternate weeks as to who they feature. One guy they never feature is O.J. Howard.

• Jameis Winston predictably threw the killer pick six, but it was his only blemish. He vastly outplayed Goff.

• It's crazy last year's Bucs regime drafted Ronald Jones in the second round, then decided to mock and bury him. Jones ran hard and broke a lot of tackles — he's certaintly better than Peyton Barber.

• Over the last two years Christian McCaffrey has gone from Alvin Kamara-level usage to peak Le'Veon Bell. He was the entire offense.

• Maybe the Texans should deal a few more first-round picks for offensive line help.

• Finally the Baker Mayfield/Nick Chubb we expected on draft day — of course, it happened in Baltimore. That said, two struggling players having their best games in an unlikely spot happens all the time. I also wonder whether the Ravens defense — that had trouble at home against the Cardinals — is even top-20 right now. I also didn't realize how fast Chubb is.

• Odell Beckham has a cannon for an arm, though I'm not sure that's consolation for his fantasy owners.

• Wayne Gallman is just a guy, but in the Shurmur/Jones offense, that's apparently useful enough. Golden Tate will cut into everyone's role next week, though.

• I made the Dolphins +16 my best bet, and it looked great all game until it didn't. I'm still resentful the Chargers, up 20, threw for a game-ending first-down on 3rd-and-6 with two minutes left. Just run the ball and punt like everyone else would have done! It's like they were trying to cover.

• I didn't watch much of the Colts-Raiders, and I can't think of anything to say about it other than I'm surprised the Colts lost.

• Pat Mahomes didn't look especially sharp. It's one thing to torch average defenses with the likes of Demarcus Robinson, but against a good one, they missed Tyreek Hill.

• Kerryon Johnson is small and runs a bit upright, but he always passes the eye test.

•LeSean McCoy is the Chiefs starting running back, and I think that remains the case even when Damien Williams comes back.

• Tom Brady had 3.8 YPA against the Bills, while Frank Gore averaged 6.4 yards per carry. Somehow the Pats still won in Buffalo. Two weeks ago, it looked like the Patriots with Antonio Brown might have an elite offense, but on Sunday they couldn't run or throw.

• The odds in 2010 that Frank Gore would have a 100-yard game in 2019 would have been astronomical.

• I didn't see much of Titans-Falcons, either, but it feels like Matt Ryan is the prohibitive favorite to lead the league in passing attempts.

• Mason Rudolph had good numbers, but I'm not buying him as the long-term solution in Pittsburgh. He's not mobile, and most of his throws were to running backs. His one deep TD to Diontae Johnson was good enough, but Johnson was wide open, and Rudolph had all day to throw.

• Jaylen Samuels and James Conner are roughly in a 50/50 timeshare. Conner was more efficient Monday night, but Samuels looks like the shiftier, more versatile back to me. Samuels was also the one getting snaps in the Wildcat.

• The Bengals are a bottom-three team. Andy Dalton held the ball too long on the rare occasion he had any time, and the line can't run or pass block.

• People were slagging Zac Taylor for running the ball with a three-TD deficit, but it seemed, not unreasonably, he lost faith in his team's ability to protect Dalton, and he wanted him to get out in one piece.

• The Bengals defense had no answer for short throws to running backs, but I'd be surprised if that gimmick offense worked on a real defense.

• Tyler Eifert got enough targets that he'll be hyped this week for the matchup against the Cardinals. Talk about a bum fight.