FanDuel Sportsbook: NFL Week 1 Tickets

This article is part of our NFL Picks series.

Welcome to our first FanDuel Sportsbook article, where we'll break down a few interesting bets each week. Before we jump in, it's worth explaining that the primary audience for this column is people looking to bet for entertainment purposes. Of course we want to win every bet, and the goal is obviously to make money, but the focus here is on fun. Even the best handicappers are generally shooting for a 55-60 percent win rate, and even that is extremely tough to come by. Additionally, we run a number of different articles throughout the week on RotoWire that cover game-by-game breakdowns to help make more-informed sports betting decisions, such as Chris Liss' long-running Beating the Book column, as well as our Staff Picks, with both resources making a pick on every NFL game against the spread every week (generally a strategy most people do not employ). In fact, Chris' weekly Survivor article is another solid piece of content, if only to get a better gauge on potential moneyline bets.

It's also worth pointing out that lines move throughout the week, so it's possible that a line listed below changes between publication and when you read it, as well as by the times the games start. Lines are important, even if you're only betting casually; taking a spread bet at -110 is different than taking it at -105 or +100, and while the margins seem small, they won't be small when added up over time.

Additionally, because RotoWire is mainly a fantasy sports site, don't be surprised if you see bets based on fantasy points scored, an offering FanDuel has based on their daily fantasy football scoring rules. Whether you play DFS or not, these bets can be fun because you're not relying on a whole team to figure out a way to beat another by more than 6.5 points but instead hoping a specific player racks up (or doesn't) a certain number of yards, catches and touchdowns. There are always anytime touchdown scorer odds as well, but betting on a fantasy-point projection at least allows you to gain ground even if the player is only catching a 15-yard pass no where near the end zone.

One final note: everyone's idea of fun is different, as is everyone's risk tolerance for using their own money to try to make more based on the outcomes of a sporting event. There are a plethora of resources available to help you understand sports betting more, including ways to develop your own models that you can then use to place bets offered by FanDuel; this is not that article. This is simply a place where those who are looking to place a few bets each week to make Sundays a little more exciting and are also interested in more than just picking against the spread or game totals. That isn't to say those aren't solid things to bet, but if you're looking for a little more risk for a little more reward, you've come to the right place.

Dalvin Cook over 15.5 fantasy points (-110)

The Vikings are four-point favorites at home against the Falcons, with the total sitting at 48 as of Saturday morning (+105 over, -125 under). This game seems like it can go either way given how good the Falcons offense and the Vikings defense can be, but I'm more interested in the player side, specifically Cook because of how Atlanta allows running backs to do basically whatever they want as long as they don't break off long runs. The Falcons' defense has allowed the most catches to running backs in each of the past four seasons, and while FanDuel's scoring system only rewards 0.5 points per catch, there is a seemingly pedestrian line needed from Cook to breach 15.5 fantasy points. Here are a few examples of how Cook can get there:

If you're into anytime touchdown scorer odds, Cook is -120 to score at least one touchdown, the best mark in the game, so while he has a great path to racking up the rushing and receiving yards, the touchdown odds are strong enough that it's not crazy to consider them when building his projection.

Cardinals to win and over 46.5 (+330)

The Cardinals +2.5 was a unanimous pick in this week's Staff Picks article, and while the line is still there, I'm on the side that the Cardinals win outright. Neither defense is elite (to put it light), which helps push the total to 46.5 even though their respective offenses have question marks. The biggest question heading into Sunday is how quickly Kyler Murray will adjust to the NFL, an issue that got plenty of attention during the preseason because we didn't see nearly enough of him, nor the Cardinals' offense under new head coach Kliff Kingsbury, to see if they'll be able to execute his high-tempo offense at the pro level. Belief in Murray should certainly mean you expect the game to go over, and while the Lions should be okay this season, being road favorites is a bit much. The Cardinals are +134 on the moneyline, but with the expectation that they only really win if they can outscore the Lions, let's better our payout (and our risk) but pushing to +330 for the Cardinals to win and go over. That being said, you could also take the points and the over for +300.

Texans and Saints to both score 25 (+260)

The 52.5-point total in this game is not quite as high as last season's NFC Championship game between the Rams and Saints, which closed at 55.0 and went under by six points, but kicking off the 2019 campaign is another game in the Mercedes-Benz Superdome with an expected high-scoring game. The real concern is whether the Texans can reach 25, with the Saints 6.5-point favorites giving them 29.5 implied points versus 23.0 for the Texans (as expected, the over/under for Texans points is 22.5 while the Saints' is 30.0). The odds are slightly favoring an under in this one, paying -120 for fewer than 52.5 versus +100 for the over, but the Texans' offense certainly has the playmakers to keep up with the points the Saints are expected to score, especially with a fully healthy DeAndre Hopkins, Will Fuller, Kenny Stills and Duke Johnson. Taking the over if you're expecting the points to be there is certainly an option, or if you think the Saints win and hit the over then you're looking at +160 (+150 for a Saints win and the under) instead of the -280 moneyline, but both teams scoring will pay much more if the fireworks go off. If you want to play it a bit safer, the payout is obviously lower, with both teams to score 20 coming in at -136 for yes and +110 for no.

Eagles to win by 14+ (110)

The 10.5-point spread between Philadelphia and Washington is the biggest of Week 1, with the oddsmakers expecting a dominant Eagles performance. The 44.5-point total is fairly pedestrian, but obviously the points are expected to be on the Philadelphia side. While a -450 moneyline bet on the Eagles doesn't exactly scream for attention, why not get some better odds on the Eagles to win by 14+, which is actually paying less than the Eagles winning by between 1-13 (+145). There's obviously much more risk here than the moneyline or the spread (-110), and it would certainly be crushing to see them win by 12 when the spread bet hits and the 14+ doesn't, but you need to take on a little more risk for that added reward. And while we're here, the Seahawks are 9.5-point favorites (-110) at home against the Bengals, with the win by 1-13 paying +140 and the 14+ paying +125. Expecting both birds to blow out their opponents? A two-team parlay of the Eagles and Seahawks each winning by 14+ pays +372, whereas their respective spread bets pay +264 (and the moneyline parlay is -202, with both sides -450 to win).

Chiefs, Patriots, Saints, Rams all make playoffs (+160)

I don't generally consider futures much, and a futures parlay always feels pretty dumb, but here we are with the four teams with the best odds to win the Super Bowl and all we need is for them to make the playoffs. It sounds so easy, right? It's well documented how much turnover there is among NFL playoff teams every year, but we're staring at four teams who are -304, -1150, -280 and -320 to individually make the postseason, respectively, as well as -155, -550, -165 and -175 to win their respective divisions. There's the least amount of fun in this bet, but at least I can delay the result until possibly Week 17.