Job Battles: Preposterous Pettis Panic

Listed below are some of the more notable job battles throughout the league that have seen new developments in the past week.

RUNNING BACK

Phillip Lindsay vs. Royce Freeman vs. Theo Riddick (shoulder), DEN

There isn't any movement between Lindsay and Freeman, by far the frontrunners in this backfield, but the recently signed Riddick suffered a broken shoulder that figures to keep him out 6-to-8 weeks. Riddick's $1 million in guaranteed money on his one-year deal seems to imply that a roster spot is set aside for him almost unconditionally, perhaps at the expense of Devontae Booker. That appears to be delayed until Riddick's return.

But if Riddick is out until as late as Oct. 6, though, then it presumably stabilizes the target shares of Lindsay and Freeman until then. I still think Lindsay will easily prove himself the more competent receiver – Riddick's career line of a 77.2 percent catch rate at 6.1 yards per target is utterly unimpressive – but Riddick's roster spot is justified with his passing-game work in mind, reasonable or not.

Chris Carson vs. Rashaad Penny vs. Travis Homer vs. J.D. McKissic vs. C.J. Prosise, SEA

Carson (452, 14 games) and Penny (180, 14 games) combined for 632 snaps last year, while Mike Davis played 392. The three of them combined for 444 carries and 78 targets. Prosise and McKissic combined for a trivial four carries and four targets on 39 snaps.

While at least one might still make the roster, it's fair to wonder whether Seattle plans to cut the passing down role previously allocated toward Prosise and McKissic. Not only did Seattle spend a sixth-round pick on Homer, a plus athlete with upside who arrives after three years of explosive production at Miami (FL), but the Seattle coaches are publicly campaigning for Carson to see a substantially bigger role as a pass catcher.

If Carson's pass-catching production to this point is any indication, then it makes a lot of sense to give him passing work that might have gone to Prosise or McKissic in the past. Both players are former slot receivers, but Carson's receiving numbers imply he can provide returns as good or better than either. It's a small sample, but on 32 targets so far he has 27 receptions for 222 yards, good for an excellent 84.4 percent catch rate at 6.9 yards per target. The Seattle defense figures to regress, perhaps a great deal, without Frank Clark and Earl Thomas, and the NFC West should be higher scoring in general with the return of Jimmy Garoppolo and the arrival of Kliff Kingsbury. If Carson sees a spike in his pass-catching share, it's definitely a good time for it to happen.

If Homer, McKissic, and Prosise see minimal roles – let's say they combine for no more than 10 percent of Seattle's running back snaps – and if the Seahawks running backs maintain the same target share as last year, then Carson could be in position to really break out. Let's say the Seahawks have 1,100 running back snaps this year, split 580 to Carson, 410 to Penny, and 110 left for whoever else. If Penny sees a target on seven percent of his snaps – he saw targets on 6.7 percent last year – he'd project for 29 of roughly 85 running back targets up for grabs. Carson has seen targets on only 5.3 percent of his pro snaps, but if you up it to 7.5 percent he'd project for about 44 targets in this scenario. A catch rate of 80 percent at 6.8 yards per target would project for about 35 receptions for 299 yards. Based on past carry rates, Carson would get that in addition to upwards of potentially 280 carries. It's an optimistic projection perhaps, but even as a longtime Penny truther I'm increasingly becoming sold on Carson as a potential fourth-round pick, and his value in PPR is on the upswing at the very least.

WIDE RECEIVER

Marquise Brown (foot) vs. Miles Boykin, BAL

This is a volatile situation because both players are rookies – Brown a late pick in the first round and Boykin a late third-round selection – and things are complicated further by Brown's attempt to recover from a January surgery to repair a Lisfranc fracture. Boykin, meanwhile, has earned unanimous praise for his work in Baltimore so far, and the fact that he's one of the toolsiest receivers in the NFL makes him more interesting than your average late Day 2 selection.

It's not clear whether Brown's recovery is going swimmingly, as he missed Monday's practice after participating in seven-on-seven drills Saturday, so that clouds things further. Coach John Harbaugh implied that Brown's absence wasn't unexpected, or at least wasn't concerning, so hopefully things things are stable on that front. If not, then Boykin gets a green light as a late-round upside target given that he would be Baltimore's lead outside receiver.

There's reason to like Boykin's chances if he gets that green light, even as a rookie mid-round prospect. Boykin's numbers didn't stand out much at Notre Dame, where injuries and sporadic playing time muffled his production, turning 128 targets into 77 catches for 1,207 yards and 11 touchdowns (60.2 percent catch rate, 9.4 YPT) in just 26 games. But Boykin's athleticism is off the charts, as at 6-foot-4, 220 pounds he ran a 4.42-second 40-yard dash while adding a 43.5-inch vertical, 140-inch broad jump, and 10.84 agility score at the combine. Raw or not, that sort of athleticism will eventually produce with enough targets.

On the other hand, if Brown can play then there's reason to think Boykin won't get those targets. Although he couldn't run the 40 prior to the draft due to his foot injury, Brown almost certainly would have run no worse than 4.40-second 40, and more likely something at 4.35 or better. Brown is almost definitely one of the fastest players in the NFL, and unlike Boykin, Brown has the convincing collegiate production that implies an advanced skill set.

Brown was the primary engine of the dominant Oklahoma passing game over the last two years, and even in an offense that completed 69.9 percent of its passes at 11.5 yards per attempt, Brown stood out by catching 132 of 186 targets for 2,413 yards and 17 touchdowns in 25 games (71.0 percent catch rate, 13.0 YPT). Whereas Brown outproduced his peers in a high-octane passing attack, Boykin only hovered around the baseline in the Notre Dame passing game in 2018, posting a catch rate of 59 percent at 8.7 YPT in an offense that completed 64.1 percent of its passes at 8.0 yards per attempt. That kind of shrieking production divide overrules whatever size-adjusted athleticism advantage Boykin might have, particularly given that Brown just turned 22 in June while Boykin will turn 23 in October.

N'Keal Harry vs. Jakobi Meyers vs. Maurice Harris, NE

Few sleeper types have more hype at the moment than Meyers, an undrafted rookie with poor athletic metrics but a history of strong production at North Carolina State. In addition to glowing camp reports, Meyers' price increase was stoked by a preseason debut where he caught six of eight targets for 69 yards and two touchdowns, all of this occurring as Harry, the previously hyped first-round pick, reportedly struggled in both the performance and durability senses.

Meyers is interesting, but it's important to keep in mind that he probably can't thrive outside of the slot, and Julian Edelman is not leaving the slot. It's great that Meyers caught 70.8 percent of his targets at 8.1 yards per target in his final two years at N.C. State, but a 4.63-second 40 and 11.3 agility score at 6-foot-2, 203 pounds is a problematic lack of athleticism if he's running against boundary corners.

Harry is still the better bet, even if he's struggling right now. Not only is he a plus athlete at 6-foot-2, 228 pounds, boasting a 4.53-second 40, 38.5-inch vertical, and 122-inch broad jump, but Harry was more productive than Meyers in college and at a younger age – Meyers will turn 23 in November while Harry will only be 22 in December. Whatever lead Meyers might have, it will likely lessen with the passage of time. In Harry's final two seasons at Arizona State he caught 65.7 percent of his targets at 9.45 yards per target in an offense that completed only 62.9 percent of its passes at 7.8 yards per pass. Meyers might have the lead now, but it seems improbable that it would last. And again, Harry can play places other than the slot.

Meanwhile, any gains for Meyers would almost necessarily seem to be at the expense of Harris, whose lack of athleticism likely restricts him to the slot, too. Harris was the recipient of constant praise from the New England press earlier in this offseason, but he might be in trouble if Meyers continues to one-up him.

Dante Pettis vs. Marquise Goodwin vs. Deebo Samuel vs. Trent Taylor (toe) vs. Jalen Hurd vs. vs. Richie James vs. Kendrick Bourne, SF

Media coverage of the 49ers receivers has been all over the place this offseason, with pretty much all players involved cycling between urgent praise and cold indifference on a seemingly random basis. The tune at the moment is that Pettis and Goodwin are down, while Taylor, Samuel, and Hurd are up. After previously receiving promising coverage at various points, Bourne and James seem to have fallen to the periphery otherwise.

Taylor will be out at least until Sept. 7 and as late as Sept. 21 with a broken toe, but before that he was earning rave reviews, with NBC's Matt Maiocco even declaring him the team's likely leader in receptions. Taylor was useless last year (26 catches for 215 yards and one touchdown on 40 targets) but apparently was limited due to an offseason back surgery. He's evidently past that now, and if so then he should show the form he showed as a rookie, when he posted a 71.7 percent catch rate at 7.2 yards per target. That's fine production, but not the kind of stuff that should make someone hostile toward Pettis, who is otherwise the team's top slot receiver. Pettis was excellent last year even with Garoppolo hurt, averaging 10.4 yards per target in his rookie season. My guess is that if he's fallen behind at all, it's pretty obviously temporary.

Crucially, while Pettis can play in the slot, Taylor can only play the slot. Because of a lack of size (5-foot-8, 181 pounds) and speed (4.63-second 40-yard dash), Taylor was outside on only 54 of his 321 snaps last year, and if a similar cap on outside snaps remains in place, then I can't imagine how Taylor gets anywhere near the team lead in receptions. More specifically, the praise for Taylor in the press strikes me almost as scripted, and that each glowing report on Taylor goes out of its way to emphasize his intensity and scrappiness, I almost have to wonder if the 49ers are feeding talking points, with Shanahan looking to hype Taylor to set an example for the other receivers. Maybe that's paranoid.

Samuel is in any case another recipient of enthusiastic recent praise, and the rookie second-round pick certainly stands out in a couple ways. He has a convincing history of open-field production at South Carolina, and his 4.48 speed makes him explosive for his 5-foot-11, 214-pound frame. Like Pettis, Samuel can play both the slot and outside, and he might see a disproportionate amount of his usage proximate to the red zone, where skinny wideouts like Pettis, Goodwin, and Taylor might see their utility decline.

Hurd's hype is on the upswing as well following a preseason debut where the third-round pick caught two touchdown passes, and the camp reports have been encouraging as well. But this year will be only his second playing receiver after playing running back at Tennessee prior to transferring to Baylor, so it would be borderline unfair to expect him to keep up with Pettis and Samuel. On the other hand, his 6-foot-5 frame really stands out in an otherwise short and light wideout rotation.

Meanwhile, despite the lack of enthusiasm around him lately, it's hard for me to imagine Goodwin spending much time on the bench. He's potentially the fastest player in the league, and if he leaves the field then the field shrinks on the San Francisco offense, leaving the safeties with more freedom to focus on Pettis and George Kittle. No one other than Goodwin has the speed to keep the middle of the field open for those two, so I'm sticking with the belief that Goodwin will get his breathers when the 49ers get into the red-zone.

No matter what way it heads eventually, the situation seems to be fluid with the San Francisco wideouts, but in the meantime it's safe to say that all of Samuel, Taylor, and Hurd are about to generate more interest in fantasy drafts. If Pettis and Goodwin slide, I'd sooner identify them as the potential values.