ADP Watch: Summer's Biggest Mysteries

For all the great information we can pull from best-ball sites, it's also useful to analyze average draft position (ADP) for leagues that require in-season management. Best ball encourages a slightly different approach outside the top 100 or so picks, with increased emphasis on getting some level of production, even if it's not much. In leagues with FAAB or waivers, we can overwhelmingly focus on upside in the late stages of drafts, knowing there will be other opportunities to find injury/bye-week replacements during the season. This calculation is different in best ball, where safe picks like Mohamed Sanu and Jalen Richard improve our odds of avoiding those dreaded goose eggs later in the year.

A numbers of fantasy sites publish ADP from mock drafts, but the inevitable reality of these exercises is that many participants don't take them seriously or log off after the first few rounds. Mocks also encourage the type of risky picks — Josh Gordon, Tyreek Hill, Kareem Hunt — that people are hesitant to make when they actually have money on the line. Practice drafters often assemble "pretty" lineups full of recognizable names, with minimal thought to roster construction or how such a team would actually perform in the fall.

At this early point in the summer, my favorite choice for ADP data comes from the National Fantasy Football Championship (NFFC), which hosted 50 season-long drafts with buy-ins throughout June. I'll restrict my analysis to running backs, wide receivers and tight ends, as the NFFC uses six-point passing touchdowns and one fantasy point for every 20 passing yards. Personally, I love how these settings make quarterbacks more important, but it does create an issue for applying the data to standard formats with four-point passing TDs and one point for every 25 yards.

A look at the 50 drafts from June reveals some surprises, along with some not-so-surprising developments rooted in odd assumptions or faulty logic:

Zach Ertz (ADP 25, TE2) vs. George Kittle (ADP 28, TE3)

I can maybe understand the argument for Ertz over Kittle if you're also scared of your own shadow. It's a vote for the steady rather than the spectacular, using Ertz's outlier 2018 stat line as justification for a wimpy decision, after he tacked on two extra targets per game despite his YPT holding steady in its usual range (7.5-7.7). 

Don't let a playoff appearance fool you; the 2018 Eagles provided ideal circumstances for Ertz to pile up volume, featuring a lousy rushing attack, a mediocre defense and just 84 targets from wide receivers not named Alshon Jeffery or Nelson Agholor. The team took proactive steps to ensure it doesn't happen again, adding DeSean Jackson, Jordan Howard, Miles Sanders and J.J. Arcega-Whiteside to an offense that also has a promising No. 2 tight end in Dallas Goedert.

Ertz's volume-driven "breakout" required a perfect storm of circumstances around him, while Kittle's efficiency-driven breakout was the storm that dictated its own terms — 10.1 YPT in an offense ranked 20th in pass attempts (532). The 25-year-old may lose some target share (26.2 percent) to Dante Pettis and Deebo Samuel, but they should all be eating from a bigger pie with Jimmy Garoppolo (knee) back under center. Skeptics love the word "regression" when discussing Kittle's record-setting yardage total, yet often fail to mention how the term can just as easily be applied to his five touchdowns (one for every 17.6 catches or 275 yards). He can afford to lose a few hundred yards and still return second-round fantasy value if his touchdown rate falls closer to the normal range for a tight end (one for every ~12 receptions or ~135 yards).

David Montgomery (ADP 50, RB25) vs. Mike Davis (ADP 181, RB60)

Drafters are treating Montgomery like a lock to handle Jordan Howard's vacated role, ignoring the Bears' decision to spend $3 million guaranteed on a running back with 101 career special-teams snaps. I only mention the lack of contribution on special teams because — right or wrong — it leaves zero doubt the Bears signed Davis for what they believe he can do on offense.

I'm not saying Davis will beat out Montgomery, but it's at least a possibility that should be factored into the price. There's also a decent shot the Bears end up with a three-man committee, which would make it difficult for anyone besides Tarik Cohen to enjoy a useful fantasy season. Fellow RotoWire writer Mario Puig has been all over this situation, repeatedly taking advantage of the dirt-cheap price on Davis. Mario and I both acknowledge that the rookie should be drafted before the veteran, but an ADP gap of 130 spots is comically exaggerated.

James Conner (ADP13, RB9) vs. Jaylen Samuels (ADP 107, RB39)

This one seems like an outright contradiction — Conner drafted as a three-down workhorse while Samuels is drafted as more than just a handcuff. Making matters worse, Benny Snell was selected in 49 of 50 NFFC leagues in June, coming off the board at ADP 222, RB66. It all adds up to an implication of massive backfield productivity that simply isn't reasonable for any team besides New Orleans or New England.

Even in Le'Veon Bell's heyday, the Steelers weren't pacing the league in cumulative RB production; they were just getting all of that production from a single player. The team then finished 31st in run-play rate (32.6 percent) last season as Ben Roethlisberger attempted the fourth-most passes (675) in NFL history. Some level of regression to the mean is inevitable, but Pittsburgh is still a strong bet to rank among the league leaders in pass-play rate this season.

Despite the team's recent history of one-man backfields, common sense dictates a reprisal of the approach we saw last season in Week 17, when Conner took 14 of the 16 carries and Samuels drew eight of the 11 targets. My expectation of a typical rusher/receiver backfield split suggests Conner is going about 10-15 spots too early and Samuels about 15 spots too late (full disclosure: I love Samuels). I don't see much reason to draft Snell at all, as there are still some No. 2 backs available in the same range, including Jalen Richard (RB 59), Gus Edwards (RB 64), Giovani Bernard (RB 65) and Chase Edmonds (RB 68). 

James Washington (ADP 114, WR45) vs. Pretty Much Anyone Else

Here we have a second example of drafters relying on the past rather than the present in their evaluations of the Pittsburgh offense. The team's recent history of developing young wide receivers has been noted ad nauseam, with the implication that a handful of successful examples offers predictive value for future outcomes (hint: it probably doesn't). In any case, Antonio Brown, Mike Wallace, Santonio Holmes, Emmanuel Sanders and JuJu Smith-Schuster produced at least 7.5 yards per target in their rookie seasons, while Washington managed just 5.7 last year.

I actually liked the Oklahoma State product as a prospect, but it's time to change the evaluation after an ugly rookie campaign inspired the Steelers to sign Donte Moncrief and use a third-round pick on Diontae Johnson. Neither qualifies as a huge commitment, but it already seems like Moncrief and TE Vance McDonald have all the hype from Pittsburgh beat writers in the competition to replace Brown's 168 targets from last season. And, as previously mentioned, the Steelers won't need to replace all those targets if they simply run the ball a bit more often. Samuels, McDonald (ADP 99, TE10) and Moncrief (ADP 147, WR56) are the smart picks. 

Dallas Goedert (ADP 139, TE15) vs. Mark Andrews (ADP 160, TE19)

Both of these guys absolutely crushed on limited volume as rookies, showing potential to eventually join the elite at their position. I love Goedert as a player and think he could poach some snaps from Ertz (see above) as soon as this season, but given the similarities in talent and skill set, it's insane to draft the No. 2 tight end from a well-stocked offense ahead of the No. 1 tight end from a shallow receiving corps. Sure, the Eagles will use some two-TE formations to accommodate their budding star, but they won't abandon three-wide sets when they're paying hefty sums for each of Jeffery, Agholor and Jackson.

Meanwhile, the Ravens will have a lot less receiving production to go around, but Andrews is as good a candidate as any to lead the team in targets. He was the only Baltimore pass catcher to do anything after Lamar Jackson took over last year, averaging 44 receiving yards over the final seven weeks of the regular season. A timeshare with Nick Boyle and Hayden Hurst is somewhat frustrating, but Andrews should be on the field for a safe majority of Baltimore's pass plays.

My issue here is more with Goedert being overvalued than Andrews being undervalued, though both are true to an extent. Am I definitely an irrational Ravens fan if I think it's clever to stack Andrews with Jackson (ADP 126, QB21) and Marquise Brown (ADP 186, WR68) in leagues with top-heavy payout structures?