2019 Football Draft Kit: State of the NFL

Isn't it great when statistics confirm our casual observations? Maybe you noticed that NFL defenses, with apologies to the Bears and a few other teams, generally seemed overmatched last season. The impressive quarterback statistics were hard to miss, and if you were really paying attention you might've noticed the efficient play wasn't limited to passing.  

The 2018 campaign produced all-time highs in league-wide completion percentage (64.9), passer rating (92.9), yards per play (5.6) and yards per carry (4.4), while yards per pass attempt (7.4) and passing touchdown percentage (4.8) reached levels last seen in the 1960s when short throws were still a novelty. At 23.3 points per team game, scoring fell a hair shy of the league record from 2013 (23.4) — a difference of just 33 points over the course of the season.

An increase of 1.6 points per team game from the previous year was the largest since 1994, representing a full rebound (and then some) from the outlier season of 2017 in which offensive efficiency took a noticeable step backward for the first time since 2005. The 2017 downturn was at least partially inspired by an unusual number of high-profile QB injuries, with Andrew Luck, Aaron Rodgers, Deshaun Watson and Carson Palmer combining for 20 starts. In 2018, Jimmy Garoppolo and Joe Flacco were the only Week 1 starters to miss more than six games, and Cam Newton was the only top-10 per-game fantasy QB to miss time (two weeks) because of an injury.

Rodgers might not have been the best version of himself, but he was at least far better than Brett Hundley. Jay Cutler's retirement didn't hurt (sorry, couldn't resist), and neither did a strong class of rookie QBs (hello to Baker Mayfield, goodbye to DeShone Kizer) combined with a second-year breakout of epic proportions (thank you, Mr. Mahomes). And then there was Andrew Luck, whose right shoulder held steady to the tune of 639 passes during the regular season and 68 more in the playoffs.

The 2018 output may have seemed like an explosion after what happened in 2017, but it was only a slight bump up from the stable level of offensive production seen from 2011 to 2016 (22.2-23.4 points and 5.4-5.5 YPP each season). The most interesting findings are the spikes in YPC and completion percentage, with the former perhaps unexpected while the latter continued a general trend throughout the decade.

The NFL has always been resistant to outright revolution, but there's still an advantage to be gained by staying aware of the slow creep of trends throughout the league. For fantasy purposes, the leading conversation has shifted in a big way, with the longstanding RB vs. WR narrative reaching an equilibrium, while a distinct upper class at TE is changing the way we evaluate that position. The other big question is Mahomes, who ran laps around the QB field last season to provide first-round fantasy value despite the better-than-ever depth at his position.  

Seven Yards and a Cloud of Dust 

It's a funny thing to see stats like air yards and average depth of target (aDOT) become part of the popular fantasy football lexicon at the same time the numbers themselves are in decline. Most NFL fans have picked up on the trend toward shorter passes in some form or another, perhaps noticing the uptick in dual-threat RBs or how the single-season completion percentage record has been reset three years running (twice by Drew Brees, once by Sam Bradford).

Last year's record-high 64.9 completion rate — 1.9 percentage points higher than the record from 2015 and 2016 — was supported by league-wide aDOT dropping to 8.6 after sitting at 8.8 each of the previous three years. Looking back a bit further, the number was 8.9 in 2013 and 2014, and 9.1 in 2011 and 2012. It isn't just empty narrative when people complain about the lack of deep passing in the modern game.

We've all experienced the frustration of watching our favorite team throw a dump-off pass on 3rd-and-10, but generally speaking, the trend toward quicker, high-percentage throws has coincided with improved offensive efficiency. In addition to yards per play, the 2018 campaign saw record highs for plays per drive (5.8), yards per drive (31.4) and points per drive (2.0), with the second/third/fourth-place marks for each stat coming from 2014, 2015 or 2016.

There was a slight positive correlation (r=0.11) between team stats for aDOT and points per drive in 2018, but a quick look at 2017 (-.01), 2016 (.07), 2015 (.31) and 2014 (-.18) suggests there isn't much to see. Even if the relationship happened to be strong, it might just serve as an example of mistaking correlation for causation, given how easily one could argue that teams with exceptionally low or high aDOT were responding to deficiencies in personnel rather than creating deficiencies with suboptimal strategy.

In terms of fantasy impact, 2018 produced a record 847 touchdown passes (1.7 per team game), narrowly beating the old mark of 842 from 2015. Net passing yardage (237.8) wasn't quite on the same level as 2015 (243.8) or 2016 (241.5), but that was caused by a slight uptick in sacks and a slight drop in overall play volume, while YPA (7.4) reached a high for the modern era. 

Mahomes had a record-breaking year with 417 fantasy points (26.1 per game), though impressive depth at quarterback meant his season wasn't quite as valuable for fantasy purposes as Peyton Manning's 2013, Aaron Rodgers' 2011 or Tom Brady's 2007. With fantasy scoring increasingly produced from rushing stats and short passes, the 2018 campaign saw a record-high 14 QBs reach 280 points, while 19 topped 17 fantasy points per game across double-digit appearances.

Relative to average fantasy starters or replacement/waiver players at the various positions, Mahomes still wasn't as valuable as an elite running back, and he was also a bit less valuable than the top WRs and TEs in PPR leagues. Of course, his draft/auction cost was much lower than that of Saquon Barkley or DeAndre Hopkins, and while that's still the case to some extent for 2019, a large portion of the gap has closed.

Even if QB isn't quite as deep as it was last season, Mahomes will need to come pretty darn close to his 2018 stat line to justify a top-25 selection in leagues that start one QB. He's younger and more athletic than the aforementioned signal callers were when they had their legendary fantasy seasons, but we still need to account for some element of regression to the mean — and that's before we analyze the impact of potentially losing Tyreek Hill.  

(Jet)Sweeping Through the League

Given recent trends, anyone could've predicted a record for completion percentage if they'd known ahead of time how much healthier the league's top quarterbacks would be in 2018. On the other hand, 4.4 YPC as the league-wide mark came out of nowhere after the number appeared to stabilize around 4.1-4.2 the previous five years … even in 2016 and 2017 when it seemed running backs were dominating the fantasy landscape again.

Part of the explanation lies in diversification of rushing attacks, with the QB and WR positions both finishing 2018 with decade-high marks for carries, rushing yards and rushing touchdowns. QBs averaged 4.3 yards on 1,871 carries to reach the high end of the position's usual efficiency range (3.9-4.3 YPC), while 415 carries from WRs averaged 6.3 yards, which is actually on the low end compared to any recent season apart from 2017.

The 415 carries may not sound like a lot, but it was actually a massive jump forward after eight consecutive seasons of the number landing between 257 and 309. If all carries by WRs were removed from the picture, league-wide YPC in 2018 would drop from 4.42 to 4.36. We might also consider that increased involvement from WRs on the ground gave defenses more to worry about and thus made things slightly easier for running backs.

A look at the WR rushing attempts leaders shows a list dominated by players from good teams — the Rams, Chargers, Bears, Chiefs and Patriots — along with two guys from a non-playoff team (Carolina) that led the league at 5.1 YPC. Robert Woods, Brandin Cooks, D.J. Moore, Curtis Samuel, Julian Edelman and Tyler Lockett took jet sweeps on a semi-regular basis, and even some unexpected players like Keenan Allen, Mike Williams and Mohamed Sanu had 7-9 carries. All in all, 27 wide receivers had five or more carries, up from 17 in each of the prior two years.

Given which teams were driving the change, it's a good bet we see more of the same in 2019, or perhaps even another increase. When the time comes, we can credit Andy Reid, Sean McVay, Matt Nagy, Josh McDaniels, Norv Turner and Ken Whisenhunt — a.k.a. the usual suspects (minus the underrated Whisenhunt) — for exploiting this source of improved efficiency before everyone else caught on. 

Even if this only explains a fraction of 2018's league-wide rushing improvement, the new trend is an interesting consideration for tough draft decisions involving the aforementioned receivers, along with some breakout candidates like Dede Westbrook (nine carries), Anthony Miller (six) and Calvin Ridley (six). Excluding the tiny impact of lost fumbles, WR carries produced .81 fantasy points per attempt last season, compared to .61 for RBs and .66 for QBs.    

11 on 11 on 11

The second part of our 4.4 YPC equation also involves wide receivers, with the increased usage of 11 personnel (1 RB, 1 TE, 3 WRs) contributing to better rushing efficiency. Although the popularity isn't anything new, it reached a different level in 2018 as 11 personnel was used on 62.1 percent of snaps league-wide, up from 57.8 percent in 2017, 58.2 percent in 2016 and 53.9 percent in 2015.
We typically think of these setups as passing formations, but there's a consistent trend of improved efficiency when teams run the ball with three WRs on the field — a trend that holds up regardless of filtering for scoring margin or down-and-distance. Simply put, NFL teams run the ball better when they use 11 personnel, producing 5.0 YPC last season after 4.6 in 2017, 4.7 in 2016 and 4.8 in 2015.

Some teams appear to be catching on, as 48.9 percent of league-wide carries in 2018 occurred from 11 personnel, marking a significant rise from 2017 (43.2), 2016 (44.7) and 2015 (39.7). You may have noticed the jump from 2015 to 2016 being similar to the leap last year, so it shouldn't come as any shock that 2016 was also a lovely season for running backs (4.2 YPC, decade-high 353 rushing TDs). 

The consistent track record of heightened rushing efficiency from spread formations is good news for David Johnson, who figures to take most of his carries with three or even four WRs on the field in coach Kliff Kingsbury's air raid offense. NFL teams averaged 5.7 YPC on 440 carries from 10 personnel (1 RB, 0 TE, 4 WRs) the last four seasons, though it basically fell out of existence last year with only 47 carries for an average of 4.7 yards. For what it's worth, Johnson at least managed 3.9 YPC on 143 carries from 11 personnel last season, compared to 3.3 on 115 totes with two or fewer WRs on the field (he didn't have any chances from 4-WR formations).  

Catching Backs, Not Running Backs

Despite their increased rushing efficiency, running backs accounted for fewer carries (10,888) in 2018 than in any other recent season, making up for it with improved YPC (4.36) as well as decade-high marks for touchdown rate from both carries (3.2 percent) and catches (4.3 percent). Cumulative RB receptions fell just 13 shy of the record established the previous year (2,636), while touchdown catches reached a peak of 112 to beat the 101 from 2017.

The growth of backfield receiving production — including in the red zone — was one of the more interesting findings from 2017, when nearly every other offensive statistic plummeted. RB catches still produce touchdowns at less than half the rate of WR or TE receptions, but 4.1 percent the last two years represents major improvement from 2015-16 (3.8), 2013-14 (3.4) and especially 2011-12 (2.6). This is another league-wide change that's been driven by successful teams, with the Saints, Patriots, Chiefs, Chargers and Panthers leading the charge toward increased passing to RBs near the goal line.

Between the overall increase in receiving volume and the uptick in high-value opportunities, running backs maintained their predominance in the fantasy world even as league-wide rush attempts (25.9 per team game) hit an all-time low last year. The loss of some carries proved to be less important than the gains in efficiency, as RBs had a decade-high 460 touchdowns in 2018. 

Top-Heavy Tight Ends

A season with more short passes and record-setting efficiency theoretically should lead to improved output from tight ends, but that wasn't actually the case in 2018 despite the efforts of George Kittle and Travis Kelce, who posted the two best yardage seasons in NFL history for the position. Kittle, Kelce and Zach Ertz accounted for 14.6 percent of all tight end receiving yards, with Jared Cook the only other player to even reach 800 and Eric Ebron enjoying a big year driven by TDs. 

The rest of the position was a wasteland, devoid of any seasons with even 700 yards or more than six scores. The names at the top changed besides Kelce and Ertz, but overall it was the continuation of a trend from 2017, which had marked the first season since 2010 with fewer than 10 TEs reaching 160 PPR points. Only seven hit that mark in 2017, and the number dropped even further to six in 2018, with Austin Hooper just barely nudging over.  While random variation in the ebb-and-flow of talent entering/leaving the league probably offers a partial explanation, increased use of 11 personnel also seems to play a role. In addition to taking some snaps that otherwise would go to the No. 2 tight end, the No. 3 wide receiver tends to be more of a threat to draw targets away from other players. Between the uptick in backfield pass-catching involvement and increased use of the third receiver, NFL teams have become less reliant on their No. 1 TEs and No. 2 WRs unless they have an absolute stud in those spots.

We also see teams that want to provide snaps for multiple tight ends, yet rarely use two-TE formations. The Steelers and Rams were prime examples last year, typically rotating their tight ends rather than using them on the field together. Vance McDonald and Jesse James accounted for 1,127 snaps on Pittsburgh's 1,116 plays, combining for an 80-1,033-6 receiving line on 111 targets. There might have been a strong fantasy season for the taking if James had cut into Ryan Switzer and James Washington's playing time instead of McDonald's.

The depth at tight end can't possibly get any worse and should eventually regress toward the mean to some extent, but it's still a precarious situation given that we don't know which players will lift the position or when it will happen (could be this year, or next or the year after). The 2019 field is deep on breakout candidates and shallow on sure things, with even Ebron and Cook facing major obstacles to approach their career-best showings from last year. 

It all adds up to a strong argument for selecting Kelce, Kittle or Ertz within the first two rounds of fantasy drafts, especially for anyone taking a shoot-for-the-moon approach. Aside from the ever-present possibility of severe injury, the floor scenario for each of the Big 3 appears as high or even higher than the ceiling scenario for any of the later options at tight end. It's easier to make up ground at the other positions, where there's a smaller gap between the players available in Round 2 and those available the next few rounds.  

Receiver Rebound

Wide receiver production cratered across the league in 2017, with targets dropping by 9.1 percent from 2016, while receptions (11 percent), receiving yards (10.2 percent) and receiving TDs (13 percent) sunk even further. Between RBs catching more passes (10.2 percent rise in targets) and the general lack of offensive efficiency (5.3 YPP), 2017 was a disaster season for the WR position.
There wasn't much doubt the numbers would rebound in 2018, but the manner in which it happened was rather drastic, with targets rising by just 2.7 percent over 2017 while the rest of the numbers bumped much higher — receiving yards by 9.1 percent, receptions by 9.8 percent and receiving TDs by 22.5 percent. The last number was especially jarring, with 533 touchdown catches from wide receivers topping the record (519) set in 2015, a season that was notoriously dominated by the position. (Anyone remember the summer of 2016 when everyone was drafting WRs before RBs early in the first round?)

Driven by efficiency more so than volume, cumulative WR production returned to its 2014-16 level, including a decade-high mark of seven players reaching 300 PPR points. Per usual, the names at the top of the positional leaderboard weren't much of a surprise, with the top 10 strictly consisting of players who had finished top 25 among WRs the previous season. The big climber was JuJu Smith-Schuster, a second-year player whose 2017 scoring had been held back by two missed games.    

Navigating the Minefield

Aside from a 2016 love affair with wide receivers, the fantasy football universe seems to have reached a sort of homeostasis in the dilemma between selecting WRs or RBs early in drafts. There's no question an elite RB1 is the ultimate asset, outscoring an elite WR1 in terms of both raw point totals and points above the "replacement level" starters at each position (sometimes referred to as the RB2/3 and WR3/4 borderlines). So, if you're confident a player will perform as a high-end RB1, it doesn't make sense to pass him up in favor of DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams.

On the flip side of the coin, running backs are more likely to lose games to injury, and the position always has some massive failures from the early rounds; the 2018 list with top-40 ADPs included Leonard Fournette, Le'Veon Bell, Dalvin Cook, Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, Royce Freeman, LeSean McCoy, Alex Collins and Jerick McKinnon. Meanwhile, the only true WR busts in the same range were A.J. Green and Doug Baldwin. Odell Beckham Jr. and Larry Fitzgerald were disappointments, sure, but it's hard to say they were truly "busts" considering they finished as WR15 and WR25, respectively.

Between the high rate of attrition and elevated dependence on team context, the running back position produces more early flops but also more late-round gems. James Conner, James White, Phillip Lindsay, Marlon Mack, Tarik Cohen, and Aaron Jones all bested 14 PPR points per game after landing outside the top 80 in ADP last year, while Tyler Boyd and Robert Woods were the only wide receivers to pull that same trick. 

Personally, I don't quite have a ride-or-die strategy for the early rounds, but I will say that I generally like to draft my second WR before my second RB and my third RB before my third WR. History shows RB is a minefield after the first 15 or 20 picks (and sometimes earlier), while the top WRs are extremely reliable. The minefield does contain a ton of upside, but I'd rather avoid diving in until all the safe WR1/2 types have been drafted (usually somewhere around pick 45-50). Once I'm left staring at the WR3-5 hoard, those hit-or-miss running backs start to look much better.

This article appears in the 2019 RotoWire Fantasy Football magazine. Order the magazine now.