Head Coaches and Coordinators: Tracking NFL Decision Makers

The following is a full accounting of current NFL head coaches, offensive coordinators, and defensive coordinators. The list is meant to be a one-stop quick reference for some historical facts about the coaches in question, as well as some editorializing about how they might affect their teams' approaches in the upcoming season. Click on a coach name in the table to get taken to their bio at the bottom of the article.

Kliff Kingsbury, HC, ARZ

Kingsbury is basically another Chip Kelly scenario, though that's not to prophesize his failure necessarily. Kelly's tactics of course took the league by storm initially, and then he for some reason ran his best offensive players out of town and otherwise failed to adjust to the adjustments made by NFL defenses. Kelly was also a very run-minded coach at Oregon, whereas Kingsbury is one of the most aggressive practitioners of the Air Raid in college football memory. The lesson you can take from that Kelly anecdote is the fact that Kingsbury, too, could be an initial fantasy boon even if he burns out in the long run. LeSean McCoy's owners were thrilled in Kelly's first year, for instance, just as I suspect David Johnson's owners will be this year. What Kelly and Kingsbury have in common otherwise is their tempo - they both aspire to get to the line and snap the ball faster than other offenses do. That means we might find fantasy value in the mere currency of the usage dictated by an offense as pass-happy and high-tempo as Kingsbury's is likely to be.

Vance Joseph, DC, ARZ

Joseph was fired from Denver's head coaching job because John Elway has failed as a GM but would prefer to not draw attention to the fact. Maybe Joseph was nothing special as a coach, but that's a reason to not hire him. The grounds for hiring him and then firing him after failing to win with either Trevor Siemian or Case Keenum in two years, on the other hand, are rather elusive. In Arizona he faces a tall task as he tries to take them from the Steve Wilks 4-3 and back to the 3-4 that preceded it.

Dan Quinn, HC, ATL

Quinn seems to be sinking. His decision to hire Steve Sarkisian was a failure. He let the ache of that failure generalize to former defensive coordinator Marquand Manuel, who of course oversaw a weak Atlanta defense but one so ravaged by injury that the idea of holding Manuel culpable was obvious nonsense. Quinn may have outrun his two since-spurned coordinator hires, but the bear is coming for him next if he doesn't figure something out. Quinn is supposed to be a defensive expert - he was hired for that reason after receiving credit for Seattle's defenses under Pete Carroll - yet he couldn't seem to so much as identify what Manuel did wrong. The most likely event is Deion Jones and Keanu Neal stay healthy in 2019, setting up the defense for a big rebound, but Quinn has to be just about out of leash as someone who can neither fix directly nor delegate effectively to this point. To his credit, he's taken on the role of defensive coordinator for 2019, so he appears ready to put up or shut up.

Dirk Koetter, OC, ATL

Koetter was one of the game's better offensive minds about 15 years ago, and he'll always be able to claim credit for Matt Ryan's 4,700-yard, 32-touchdown season in 2012. But Koetter was lost in Tampa Bay, to the point that you wonder if he lost whatever he initially had. Steve Sarkisian did not set a high bar before Koetter, so perhaps the change of scenery combined with less pressure will help Koetter find his inspiration again. But as previously mentioned, Quinn's fitness for hiring deserves some scrutiny at this point. Even the good things that happened in Tampa recently can reasonably be attributed to Todd Monken rather than Koetter.

John Harbaugh, HC, BAL

Harbaugh was staring at a crossroads to start 2018, then the tension only rose as the Ravens meandered to a 4-5 record going into the Week 10 bye. That's when the Ravens switched from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson, inverting the entire offense in the process. They went 6-1 from that point and snuck into the playoffs, which earned Harbaugh an in-season extension. Who knows what kind of leash he has, but Harbaugh is a former Super Bowl winner who just got a contract extension while working with a rookie quarterback. Seems like a stable foundation, or about as close as a team realistically gets.

Greg Roman, OC, BAL

The shift from Flacco to Jackson was hard on then-offensive coordinator Marty Mornhinweg, who dove head-first into the idea of shifting to a run-heavy approach, but basically didn't know what he was doing. He couldn't reconcile the novel rushing designs with a functional broader offense, and when the novelty of the new looks wore off, he didn't know how to adjust. Roman should be an improvement in this regard, as he has experience building an offense around Colin Kaepernick. Mornhinweg did the best he could, but he had no idea of how to mix in passing elements with the run schemes, leading to a Rich Rodriguez-looking offense rather than the Chip Kelly one Jackson needs to reach his potential. Jim Harbaugh implemented just such an offense in San Francisco, and Roman ran it. The weird additional detail in this case is that Roman was actually an in-house promotion from assistant head coach and tight ends coach. If you asked me why Roman didn't just take over the offense last year, I couldn't give you a good answer. Mornhinweg is gone now, though, and perhaps it just wasn't politically viable to demote him at the time. Roman has to be a good sign, though, at least relative to a lot of alternatives.

Don Martindale, DC, BAL

Harbaugh has overseen many strong Baltimore defenses with differing coordinators, but even as he follows up the also great Dean Pees, it seems like Martindale might be one of the Ravens' best defensive coordinators yet. The Baltimore defense was arguably the best in the NFL last year, proving suffocating against the run and pass alike while developing modest prospects like Matt Judon into crucial contributors. As long as they bring back C.J. Mosley, Martindale should be able to put forth yet another fearsome 3-4 Baltimore defense in 2019. He might be a head coach in 2020 if so.

Sean McDermott, HC, BUF

The heat seemed to pick up on McDermott a bit last year, especially whenever Nathan Peterman played, but there are reasons to believe he's one of the league's most promising coaches, and the Bills should feel lucky to have him. He's been dealt a goofy and generally bad personnel card thanks to the weird decisions made by GM Brandon Beane, but there were times last year where you could see what might happen if McDermott had a talented team to work with. Offensive coordinator Brian Daboll did a great job setting up raw rookie quarterback Josh Allen to succeed, and in the process identified at least one building block in receiver Robert Foster. The danger for McDermott is ending up in a place like Mike Zimmer or Todd Bowles - on a hot seat due to a bad offense, but as a defensive coach unable to do much about it. At least as long as Daboll is around, then that might not be a major risk. His management of Buffalo's defense otherwise needs no defending, because even his critics would have to admit he's one of the best in this capacity. He was in line to be Jim Johnson's heir in Philadelphia for a reason. Although he tutored under both, McDermott's schematic sensibilities are more similar to Johnson than Ron Rivera. His defenses will always generate more pressure than you assume.

Brian Daboll, OC, BUF

Daboll was a wildcard going into last year, but he annihilated the uneasy expectations. From last year:

Daboll was a one-off offensive coordinator for Alabama last year, but he's probably best understood as a scion of the Bill Parcells-Scott Pioli-Bill Belichick school after quietly serving offensive coordinator stints in Cleveland (2009-2010), Miami (2011), and Kansas City (2012). None of the results were promising, yet with the passage of time and Daboll's one-year apprenticeship under Nick Saban, it's hard to get a read on just what Daboll's nature may be these days. The last time he was offensive coordinator was a different era, but his proximity to Parcells and Pioli makes it reasonable to suspect an emphasis on the ground game. How well-schemed his approach might be is another matter, and similarly difficult to discern.

The matter is settled: Daboll was effective in 2018. He showed the sort of pragmatic approach to his personnel that define the best coaches, and he specifically turned Allen into a menace on the ground even though his fans in the scouting community imagined him to be a throwback to the tall, traditional pocket passers of yore. Daboll at once denied them this nostalgia while leaving them content anyway, showing a vision for Allen's future that's far more believable than what his initial fans had in mind. Allen's rookie season production is highly similar to Vince Young's - an unthinkable outcome before last year.

Daboll has shown the ability to adapt generally, and to make his adaptations in a prescient manner, even when implementing experimental measures. There was no case study for how Daboll's approach last year would work, but he correctly guessed that it would and didn't let convention dissuade him. Defenses will adjust to the various ways he accommodated Allen - namely moving him around to create rushing opportunities and calling constant deep routes so that the defense keeps in mind Allen's unparalleled arm strength. Consistency eluded, but Allen demonstrated big week-to-week upside, with his ability to throw anywhere on the field combining with Foster's speed to make for a difficult defensive task. Maybe defenses figure them out, but Daboll's first season could hardly have been more promising.

Leslie Frazier, DC, BUF

Frazier is an experienced 4-3 coach and one of the NFL's most established defensive backs coaches, but in Buffalo he's mostly a mentor for McDermott.

Ron Rivera, HC, CAR

I'm trying to be impartial but (A) I'm bad at that and (B) come on, Rivera is not it. The Riverboat Ron brand that he so consciously tries to promote obscures his real nature, portraying him as a Wild Man Who Doesn't Care About the Rules rather than a guy who sometimes does weird things merely because he doesn't grasp the situation. His players and the people who work with him like him a lot, so he has that going for him at least, but I'm not sure what results that detail can claim credit for other than keeping him employed. Cam Newton is one of the best quarterbacks of recent decades and the success under Rivera's watch in Carolina is vaguely analogous to the success Green Bay had over a similar time frame - a time frame in which you would correctly withhold any praise for Mike McCarthy despite his head-coach distinction of the time.
Rivera is probably a good defensive positional coach, and maybe even a good defensive coordinator, and there's maybe even some other dimension where he's a good head coach. But rather than his Crazy Gambling he would be more fairly known for his propensity for one-possession losses, a scenario he needlessly perpetuates by refusing to take his hands off either the offense or defense while otherwise mishandling his player personnel. Ron also reliably displays that reactionary The Fact That You're Questioning Me Proves I'm Right mindset that worked so well for McCarthy. But Rivera's fondness for simpler times, times when we stayed in our base formation 50 plays a game instead of all this nickel defense nonsense, does not serve him any. His defensive insights are depreciating as he resists changes in the game, and at the very least he needs to be humble enough to defer to other people with regard to the playcalling and situational management. That he fired his defensive line and secondary coaches in the final month shows he's lost his grip on his one supposed domain of expertise, and his willingness to scapegoat them for failures in his department does not speak well to his diagnostic abilities or his humility. He's in a tailspin similar to Dan Quinn in Atlanta, though if Quinn is half as smart as Rivera he'll urgently rebrand himself as Durango Dan, Dan Dynamite, Quaalude Quinn - something like that.

Norv Turner, OC, CAR

Turner mostly did a decent job in his first year as coordinator with the Panthers, helping spring Christian McCaffrey for an enormous season while making the most of Newton's dead shoulder and Carolina's poor offensive line. His approach wasn't much different than Mike Shula before him, though he seemed to do a better job of specifically accommodating Carolina's best talents on offense, tweaking the system to suit the strengths and weaknesses of McCaffrey and D.J. Moore especially. Turner was apparently using most of the same concepts he did in his prior offenses, just adding more shotgun/pistol looks while applying the route concepts to spread looks rather than the more I-formation base he might have used 25 years ago. The Carolina offense should in any case look the same as it did in 2018, and as ever its success rests more on Cam Newton's status than any coaching decision.

Eric Washington, DC, CAR

Washington is back for a second year as Carolina's defensive coordinator after replacing Steve Wilks last year, but the results were not especially encouraging. It's fair to suggest it's not Washington's fault - Carolina's personnel is not good, with its lack of edge rushers and defensive back depth proving a poor resource allocation in the league's current pass-heavy state. Rivera fired the team's defensive line and defensive backs coach at the conclusion of November, and took playcalling duties away from Washington as well. Even if Rivera is similarly hands-on in 2019, it appears he'll be inclined to blame Washington if results don't improve.

Matt Nagy, HC, CHI

Here was my best guess on Nagy prior to last year:

Nagy served as offensive coordinator under Andy Reid in Kansas City the last two years, and otherwise served Reid as an assistant going back to Philadelphia in 2008. Reid is one of the league's more pass-oriented coaches, but Nagy could take it to another level. Nagy is a former star Arena League quarterback, and his hiring of Chip Kelly disciple Mark Helfrich as offensive coordinator gives further reason to suspect Nagy will be on the cutting edge of NFL tempo and general aggression trends on offense. Nagy took over the playcalling for a sluggish Chiefs offense in the team's 12th game last year, and he instantly took it to heights that Reid couldn't. He specifically unleashed Tyreek Hill as a downfield threat after the wideout wasted a great deal of the previous year and a half running pointless drag routes. Hill totaled 457 yards and three touchdowns on 28 targets in the four games Nagy called plays. Expect Nagy to bring some spark to the Bears offense by scheme improvement alone, and expect Mitch Trubisky and Jordan Howardto get big usage volume.

Nagy was of course a smashing success, winning NFL Coach of the Year and leading the Bears to an NFC North title in his first season. He was definitely helped out by the unforced collapses of Green Bay, Minnesota, and Detroit, and success in one's first year of coaching is a surprisingly poor gauge of their future trajectory, but Nagy looks like the real deal. Mitch Trubisky clearly remained an unrefined product in 2018, but Nagy did a good job of quarantining his limitations while amplifying his stronger traits, leading Trubisky seven points to his completion percentage and 0.8 to his YPA. He also threw twice as many touchdown passes (24) as interceptions.

Nagy's offense didn't feature the tempo I had hoped for, finishing with the third-slowest tempo according to Football Outsiders. I would guess this speaks to the fact that Nagy needed to conceal Trubisky somewhat to keep the sunlight off of his flaws. It's easy to go max-tempo when you can do what you want on offense, but when you're worried about three-and-outs and turnovers you might be more inclined to juice time of possession by just choking the time off the scoreboard. That Chicago had either the league's best or second-best defense would have only reinforced this instinct. With standout defensive coordinator Vic Fangio gone to Denver, though, the pressure is on Nagy to take the Bears offense to the next level. He can't assume the defense will be that good two years in a row.

Mark Helfrich, OC, CHI

Helfrich is just a caretaker who's happy to be in the NFL. He knows the concepts of Nagy's system and is well-studied on its applications, though his regrettable stint as Oregon's head coach gave reason to believe he simply can't handle situational management or questions of judgment generally. That was a few years ago, to be fair, and he's only 45 now, so perhaps he's made improvements since.

Chuck Pagano, DC, CHI

The former Colts head coach has a cushy job in the sense that his Bears defense comes with a proven template and a number of top-grade talents, but it's less enviable in the sense that expectations are impatiently high as he tries to replace the great Fangio. Pagano's Indianapolis defenses weren't noteworthy, but he might have a totally valid excuse in the fact that then-GM Ryan Grigson was wildly incompetent. Pagano was hired by Indianapolis because of his great work as defensive coordinator under John Harbaugh back in 2011. Pagano's initial area of expertise is defensive backs, which is probably a good fit for Chicago since the front seven is ruthless just on the basis of its talent.

Zac Taylor, HC, CIN

Along with Kingsbury in Arizona, the hiring of Taylor marks one of the NFL's more transparent instances of attempting to identify the next Sean McVay. It's particularly clear in this case because Taylor was McVay's quarterbacks coach in 2018. A former quarterback at Nebraska and briefly with the NFL, he played under Bill Callahan in college and coached under Joe Philbin upon his coaching arrival in 2012. Both coaches are largely defined by their connection to the 90s West Coast Offenses, specifically Jon Gruden in Callahan's case and Mike Holmgren in Philbin's.

This will be Taylor's first time truly running an NFL offense, and as the more senior LaFleur showed in Tennessee, it's sometimes difficult to learn on the job. LaFleur may very well remain one of the league's more promising offensive coaches, but he was overmatched as a playcaller in his one year with Tennessee. It might therefore require patience with Taylor, especially since he'll need to work with a below average quarterback in a division that is bitter in the sense of both demeanor and the late-season cold.

Brian Callahan, OC, CIN

Callahan is the son of Bill Callahan, Taylor's college coach. At one year younger than Taylor and a plausible nepotism case, the author of this article is a bit nervous about the lack of seasoned oversight. Callahan was a quarterbacks coach the last three years, two in Detroit and one with Jon Gruden in Oakland. Neither the head coach nor the offensive coordinator of the Bengals have run an NFL offense, but here goes nothing.

Lou Anarumo, DC, CIN

Anarumo was defensive backs coach under Joe Philbin (2012-2015) and Adam Gase (2016-2017) in Miami before joining Pat Shurmur with the Giants in 2018. Anarumo has never coordinated a defense at the pro or college level except for an interim stint after the Dolphins fired Philbin. It's in any case hard to see this resulting in anything but yet another year of bland 4-3 play in Cincinnati, and his hiring seems to complete a trinity of liquidation store coaching hires by the ever-disinterested Mike Brown.

Freddie Kitchens, HC, CLE

The ludicrous Hue Jackson/Todd Haley/Gregg Williams experiment blew up probably even sooner than anyone expected, with the Browns firing both of their back-biting hothead offensive coaches (Jackson and Haley) after Week 8 rather than choosing one or the other. The removal of both cleared a lane for Kitchens, who very well could turn into something of a savior figure for this team. Kitchens' leadership was a violent contrast to Jackson's or Haley's, almost instantly bringing a previously cursed offense to life and unleashing rookie Baker Mayfield as one of the league's most productive quarterbacks.

Kitchens coached tight ends for one season in Dallas before heading to Ken Whisenhunt's Cardinals for the same role in 2007. Bruce Arians kept him on board after Whisenhunt's firing before the 2013 season, and moved Kitchens to quarterbacks coach, a position he held for four years under Arians. The Browns spread the field and attacked deep often under Kitchens' watch, so it appears that Arians' vision of the game resonated with Kitchens. That's not to say Kitchens merely imitates Arians - it more so seems like Kitchens has that crucial knack for accepting a good idea when it's laid out in front of him. But if he's just imitating Arians then that's also fine - no one is going to complain if Mayfield keeps throwing for 282 yards and 2.38 touchdowns per game.

Todd Monken, OC, CLE

Monken is probably one of the league's five best offensive coaches, so he's overqualified for this job. It's a suitable arrangement for Monken, though, because it has the look of a one-and-done. Monken will evidently not call plays, but his insights are likely to vibe well with Kitchens and so an unintentional coalition approach might be the result. If two great minds are better than one, then it should work just fine.

Steve Wilks, DC, CLE

Wilks memorably burned out in his one season as head coach in Arizona, subjecting Arizona to a 3-13 record and one of the most uninspired seasons I can remember generally. But as a defensive coordinator he should be back in his element, and his approach shouldn't be meaningfully different from the Gregg Williams scheme that more or less worked for Cleveland in 2018. They'll continue with a 4-3 scheme that seeks to create pressure - one thing that Wilks was able to establish in Arizona as the Cardinals finished 2018 with 49 sacks, tied for fifth-best league-wide.

Jason Garrett, HC, DAL

What a weird guy. What a weird team. From last year:

Garrett was hired by Dallas on the momentum of his offensive coordinator work under Wade Phillips, when Tony Romo broke out with 36 touchdowns in 2007. He was briefly known as a quarterback guru and a prodigal schemer as a result. That brand has been replaced with the run-obsessive approach of Dallas in recent years. Did Garrett undergo a personal conversion or were new terms dictated to him? Given Jerry Jones' consistent support for Garrett throughout too many embarrassing episodes to remember, it's fair to wonder if the run-heavy shift by Dallas was ordered by Jones and obediently executed by Garrett.

The Cowboys fired offensive coordinator Scott Linehan after the season, but the fact that they replaced him with Kellen Moore is pretty much proof that any changes made to the Dallas offense will be mostly trivial, and Linehan's firing was primarily to give Jerry Jones a scapegoat. If Jerry doesn't fire Linehan, Dallas fans are instead demanding to know just what Jerry is up to instead of sighing in relief at the headline of Linehan's firing. The addition of Amari Cooper to the offense was a meaningfully important step forward, but the scheme is unlikely to make any waves.

Kellen Moore

Moore is 30 years old. He is not even two full years removed from playing quarterback for Dallas. Perhaps Moore has big plans for the future and perhaps he will succeed in realizing them, but this is basically an internship. It's a useful internship for Jerry Jones in that he can present the image of reform to the credulous among media and Dallas' fanbase, and specifically with a candidate whose hiring is meant to evoke similarities to Sean McVay and the league's general trend of mining for precocious quarterback coaches to run offenses. But Garrett is still in charge of managing this offense, and he does what Jerry Jones says.

Rod Marinelli, DC, DAL

Whereas Garrett is likely executing within the parameters dictated by Jones, Marinelli seems to have almost full autonomy running the Dallas defense. One reason for that is he appears quite good, and Dallas seems lucky to have him. There's no doubt that Marinelli is a better defensive coach than Garrett is an offensive coach. A pupil of Monte Kiffin and Tony Dungy, Marinelli is one of the Cover 2 School coaches who have best adjusted to the changing league over the years. His defensive line in Dallas routinely overachieves, and the strength of his front seven generally enhances the margin of error for Dallas' secondary.

Vic Fangio, HC, DEN

Fangio is in an unfairly difficult position as a truly great defensive coach who for whatever weird reason was never given a head-coaching opportunity until this point, at age 60, even though he's been coaching in the NFL since 1986. He was largely brought up by the Phillips dynasty. You remember Rickey Jackson and Pat Swilling? Fangio was their linebackers coach, a job he held from 1986 to 1994, when he was promoted to defensive coordinator of Dom Capers' expansion Panthers. He would go on to serve as defensive coordinator for the Colts (1999-2001), Texans (2002-2005), 49ers (2011-2014), and Bears (2015-2018). The reason Denver in particular is such a frustrating landing spot for Fangio is that the Denver defense was never broke. Vance Joseph did a fine job with the Denver defense, but he couldn't fix the cursed Denver offense because... he wasn't an offensive coach. Fangio faces the same task, but he can only control the defense. He especially can't stop John Elway from wasting draft picks. Fangio should in any case make that Denver defense even better than Joseph had it running.

Rick Scangarello, OC, DEN

Who knows how he will fare as a strategist and playcaller, but Fangio's decision to target Scangarello as offensive coordinator is generally encouraging. A coach as old as Fangio would normally be liable to gravitate toward some atavistic idea of offense, the kind that plagues the minds of people like Ron Rivera and Pete Carroll, but Fangio is no dummy and he therefore could tell which way the wind was blowing. He prioritized Scangarello to ostensibly run a Kyle Shanahan-like offense, in which case motion and tempo will be used to create space for quick hits. It's easier said than done to emulate Shanahan's high-level intuition, but Scangarello at least had front row seats as the 49ers' quarterbacks coach the last two years. Shanahan mined Scangarello from the FCS college football ranks, as Scangarello previously coordinated offenses for schools like Wagner (2016), Northern Arizona (2012-2014), Millsaps (2010-2011), and UC-Davis (2004-2008). His hiring at the very least confirms Fangio's commitment to evolution.

Ed Donatell, DC, DEN

Donatell has prior defensive coordinator experience in Green Bay (2000-2003) and Washington (2008), but he arrives in Denver after coaching Fangio's defensive backs in Chicago the last four years. He's presumably thrilled for the promotion, but this is Fangio's defense to run.

Matt Patricia, HC, DET

If Patricia is supposed to be a defensive wizard, then last year's results were not encouraging. The pass rush (43 sacks) was lively enough, but aside from that opposing quarterbacks found things leisurely against the Lions, completing 65.1 percent of their passes at 7.9 YPA while conceding 29 touchdown passes versus seven interceptions. Detroit's QB rating allowed of 102.7 was third-worst in the NFL, and the run defense was no better in allowing 4.7 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Keep in mind, this was with the offenses in Green Bay and Minnesota badly disappointing in 2018. Maybe Patricia will figure it out, but the personnel is not great and it's difficult to see the potential subtraction of both Glover Quin (already cut) and Ezekiel Ansah (free agent) helping on that front. Meanwhile, the replacement of Jim Bob Cooter with Darrell Bevell at offensive coordinator indicates an intention to more of a throwback, run-heavy offense in contrast to JBC's dink-and-dunk philosophy. That could be good for Kerryon Johnson, but the game script will need to cooperate.

Darrell Bevell, OC, DET

Perhaps Bevell would like to open up the offense more than he had the liberty to as offensive coordinator in Seattle from 2011 to 2017, but his most recent cases of offensive coordinating were doubtlessly a grounded, ball-control offense. His Minnesota offenses under Brad Childress before that (2006-2010) were also run-heavy. Views can change over time and Bevell is no exception, but it seems like too much of a coincidence that Patricia would look to replace JBC and his pass-happy tendencies with a guy who has a decade worth of running 1991 offenses. It's probably bad news for Matthew Stafford's volume upside.

Paul Pasqualoni, DC, DET

Pasqualoni is a longtime Parcells-connected operative with experience running both 3-4 and 4-3 fronts, which is helpful for Patricia's ostensible goal of emulating the Belichick defenses of recent years. In practice he's probably not much more than Patricia's top assistant.

Matt LaFleur, HC, GB

LaFleur is the Zac Lee before Zac Lee, but even LaFleur had to do two years of offensive coordinator service before the Packers signed him as head coach. LaFleur technically coordinated Sean McVay's 2017 offense, but he was not the play caller and he struggled with that new role upon his arrival in Tennessee. There's only so much you can tell from press quotes, but LaFleur seems clear-eyed and humble enough as a coach to know his limitations - he expressed the intention of hiring a game management specialist to advise on situational coaching, for instance - and I personally wouldn't be surprised if he improves drastically with experience. Plus, the Tennessee offensive line was a disaster and you can only blame the coordinator so much if his starting quarterback is playing with a bad elbow all year. LaFleur, like McVay, traces to the West Coast Offense under Jay Gruden's specific direction, but his time with McVay should indicate a greater willingness to experiment with tempo and formation that more traditional WCO offenses don't approach. Even if LaFleur isn't particularly good, he should be a safe upgrade over Mike McCarthy, at least for the fantasy value of the Green Bay offense.

Nathaniel Hackett, OC, GB

The Jaguars offense was bad because Blake Bortles is bad, and the people running the Jaguars preferred firing Hackett rather than themselves. Hackett might not be good or anything, but he was on a promising trajectory before last year and the idea that he should be culpable for the Jaguars' collapse is transparent scapegoat logic. Hackett pushed tempo and aggressive passing in Jacksonville, and although he won't initially call plays, it's probably something he can do.

Mike Pettine, DC, GB

Pettine is a holdover from the McCarthy staff, though 2018 was Pettine's only season with the regime, previously out of the league for two years following his dismissal as head coach of the Browns (2014-2015). A time-tested conductor of the 3-4, Pettine mostly worked under Rex Ryan in his career, and while the results in 2018 were middling, they were still an improvement over Dom Capers' prior work, even with the Packers dealing with plenty of injuries. Pettine predicts a breakout for the Packers defense in Year 2 of his scheme, and as long as he has reasonable luck I like his chances.

Bill O'Brien, HC, HOU

I'll first post last year's blurb and then expand on it:

O'Brien was long regarded as one of football's best quarterback coaches, and despite occasionally catching heat as the head coach in Houston, it generally looks like Houston is lucky to have him. Despite dealing with dubious personnel management under the watch of Rick Smith, O'Brien made Houston competitive without a real quarterback... until Deshaun Watson arrived. Even though Watson's skill set is drastically different from anyone O'Brien worked with previously, O'Brien showed the ability to adjust his methods to Watson's skills, and the result was immensely promising. O'Brien once tricked us all into thinking Christian Hackenberg would one day be a No. 1 pick, so it will be interesting to watch what he can do with a truly good quarterback like Watson over the long haul.

One year later, and O'Brien is still on the hot seat after another disappointing end to the season despite some promising peripherals and understandable excuses otherwise. The Texans made the Wildcard Round of the playoffs but got slapped up at home by the division rival Colts, and you can imagine the sting of that outcome leading Houston's fans to choke the leash even more. The injuries to Will Fuller and Keke Coutee deprived Houston's ability to stick with a shootout, a scenario they were overly susceptible to due to Houston's defense again proving a liability against the pass. The offensive line was trash - that's the fault of the front office. It's easy to be sympathetic to both O'Brien and his critics.

In the meantime, though, if we decline to speculate on just how O'Brien's legacy will turn out in Houston, we can still acknowledge that he's likely to lead a strong Houston offense in 2019. Deshaun Watson is absolutely the real deal, and if he has the speed of Fuller and Coutee complementing DeAndre Hopkins' superhuman abilities then this offense could be a real problem for defenses. That would be particularly true if they could scrape together something resembling an offensive line.

Romeo Crennel, DC, HOU

Crennel once parlayed his fine work as New England's defensive coordinator (2001-2004) into less successful head-coaching ventures (Cleveland, 2005-2008 and Kansas City, 2011-2013), but at this point he's struggling to maintain his reputation as just a defensive coordinator. His run defense played well last year, but the Texans were annihilated by air for the second year in a row. The secondary personnel in Houston is maybe below average, but the game might be passing the 71-year-old Crennel by a bit.

Frank Reich, HC, IND

I'm embarrassed to say I was nervous about Reich a year ago, concerned that his background as an 80s player might make him more like Norv Turner than Doug Pederson. The precise opposite was true - Reich was extremely impressive, a worthwhile vote for Coach of the Year, and he did it with a sort of clear-eyed pragmatism that defines someone like Pederson. Reich would have every excuse and even incentive to be dinosaur-minded like so many of the unfit coaches from his era who received head-coaching jobs before he got his turn, but all he did in his first year at the helm was lead a clearly overachieving Colts squad into the divisional round of the playoffs. Andrew Luck threw 39 touchdown passes when his second-leading targets were Eric Ebron and Chester Rogers. Guys like Rogers, Zach Pascal, and Ryan Grant just do not play in good offenses, yet Reich somehow pulled it off. This team will get significantly more talented.

Nick Sirianni, OC, IND

Reich is running the show in Indianapolis, but if things keep up then Sirianni might be the next LaFluer/Taylor sort of prospect. He'll only be 38 in June, and he has experience coaching both quarterbacks and wide receivers.

Matt Erbeflus, DC, IND

As much as Sirianni might get on the head coaching map if the Colts keep rolling, Eberflus is already on the short list of the next potential head coaches. He took over a Colts defense profoundly lacking in talent last year and over the course of the year turned it into one of the league's more stable defenses. Utilizing a heavy dose of zone coverages to conceal the lack of speed and talent generally, Eberflus successfully confused offensive coordinators most of the year, though Andy Reid caught him totally flat footed in the playoffs. It will be interesting to see what Ebeflus can do with this sort of throwback Monte Kiffin defense, or if he implements more man coverage looks as the defense adds talent.

Doug Marrone, HC, JAC

For a team with such an obvious run game + defense model of play, it'd be easy to assume Jacksonville's offense ran the wishbone or some such ancient thing. But Marrone is actually more spread and tempo-minded than the vast majority of coaches, so it would seem likely that he would open up the Jacksonville offense substantially if he had a better quarterback. We'll see about that - the Jaguars so far haven't outlined a vision for replacing Bortles. Marrone otherwise might be on a short leash after firing his offensive coordinator last year to keep his own job - a categorically silly look considering the man he fired was doing what Marrone told him to.

John DeFilippo, OC, JAC

Maybe DeFilippo isn't great, but he also probably wasn't the problem with the Vikings offense last year. It's curious to note that, as a recent scapegoat firing himself, DeFilippo landed at a spot where Nathaniel Hackett was sacrificially fired. Marrone is in any case the chief architect of the Jaguars offense, and there's no reasonable world where he can fire Hackett - a guy with the same ideas as Marrone and executed Marrone's instructions - without firing himself. Apparently Marrone just likes his job or something. Anyway, DeFilippo is unlikely to change the structure of the offense much, because Marrone is an offensive coach by initial trade.

Todd Wash, DC, JAC

Last year's details have not changed with Wash:

Wash accepted the Jacksonville defensive coordinator gig in 2016, and the results of his work need no elaboration. Jacksonville's 2017 defense was one of the best in distant memory, and if he maintains that sort of momentum Wash figures to get on the head coaching radar in a hurry. Initially a defensive line specialist under Jon Gruden and Raheem Morris in Tampa Bay, Wash took direction from Gus Bradley and thus the Pete Carroll coaching tree from 2011 to 2015.

Andy Reid, HC, KC

Reid's entry from last year is an interesting one to reflect on:

The game seems to be passing Reid by a bit, but if he's still observant he'll notice that his former understudy, Matt Nagy, gave him a Get Out of Jail Free blueprint with the playcalling he displayed after Reid surrendered the playcalling duties following Kansas City's 11th game last year. Nagy showed Reid the light - the key was to attack more downfield, especially with Tyreek Hill, instead of attempting a dink-and-dunk offense. If Reid learns the lesson, he'll try to mimic the approach Nagy outlined in that stretch, in which Nagy impressed so much it launched him into a head coaching role with Chicago. Reid still is one of the league's best quarterback coaches and is generally one of the more pass-happy coaches in the league, but the methods that served him so well for most of the last 15 years need to adjust to recent paradigm shifts. If Reid keeps in motion the offense that Nagy helped lift off, it should be a good show with Pat Mahomes at quarterback.

Reid will always have his issues with situational management - he would be wise to take up LaFleur's plan to add a staff expert specifically to calculate the outcome odds for various decisions - but as a football tactician he's one of the best ever. He's a paradox as a coach - too good to be just an offensive coordinator, but too absent-minded to maintain full composure at all times as a head coach. If he would just outsource his limitations, Reid would be almost perfect as a game planner, play caller, and quarterbacks coach. He in any case seemed to learn the lessons of the 2017 season, where then-understudy Matt Nagy demonstrated a superior approach after Reid handed the playcalling of his struggling offense over to Nagy, the offensive coordinator at the time. Reid was always a forward-thinking, pass-heavy coach, but in 2018 he instituted something pretty close to the Air Raid, or at least the closest you can get to running it in the NFL.

Eric Bieniemy, OC, KC

Bienemy might be weighed down by the presumption that he just follows the orders of Reid rather than truly running the Kansas City offense, but if Pat Mahomes throws 50 touchdowns again then teams in search of a new coach will probably get over their reservations. Even if Bienemy only knows what Reid told him, that's still valuable intelligence, and Reid wouldn't trust him to this degree if he weren't capable. Bienemy is a strong bet to get a head-coaching job after this year.

Steve Spagnuolo, DC, KC

Bob Sutton's approach was not working, so the Chiefs were compelled to fire him. Spagnuolo is the replacement. Spagnuolo is nothing new - basically a journeyman coordinator at this point in his career - but he has head-coaching experience (Rams, 2011-2013), and he has led some strong defenses throughout his uneven career. Primarily a 4-3 guy, the Chiefs evidently figure to run enough nickel defense that the departure from prior coordinator, the 3-4-minded Bob Sutton, isn't a concern.

Anthony Lynn, HC, LAC

While we're primarily drawn toward strategic skill and eye for execution when considering head-coaching prospects, a case like Lynn is a reminder that, intangible as it might be, the idea of leadership is not just a superstitious or sentimental concept. Lynn is a formidable figure who by all accounts easily earns the loyalty or even adoration of his players. They say he manages to straddle the line between military discipline and earnest, understanding relationships with his players, and they fight for him accordingly. In terms of football philosophy Lynn is drawn toward more of an old school mindset, perhaps in no small part because he was a journeyman special teams running back in his own NFL player career, but it's not clear whether he truly has his hands on the Chargers' schemes or if he more so concerns himself with teaching player technique. He in any case has a 21-11 record through two seasons and advanced to the Divisional Round after beating the Ravens in the Wildcard Round of the 2018 playoffs.

Ken Whisenhunt, OC, LAC

If Lynn is more of the CEO of the Chargers than a hands-on schemer, then perhaps Whisenhunt can claim most of the credit for the success of the Chargers offense in the past two years. The Chargers offense is old school like Lynn in the sense that it's low tempo and run-heavy, but that they primarily run the three-WR base offense that Whisenhunt perfected as head coach of the Cardinals gives reason to think Lynn gives Whisenhunt some real autonomy as offensive coordinator. With Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon, and Keenan Allen all back, the Chargers offense should continue as it has the last two years.

Gus Bradley, DC, LAC

Bradley got absolutely embarrassed by Bill Belichick and Josh McDaniels in the playoffs, caught off guard when the Patriots crafted a game plan that differed from what they showed on tape, but Bradley is normally a competent defensive coordinator. You can't get blindsided like that, but it's probably one of those things where it will only work once, and Belichick plays the long game better than anyone. Bradley in any case is one of Pete Carroll's most successful understudies, even after burning out as head coach of Jacksonville (2013-2016). The Chargers defense was feared in 2018 before that Divisional Round beatdown, and as long as Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram are around Bradley should be able to reestablish the basis of that fear.

Sean McVay, HC, LAR

Here's the blurb to McVay last year, since which not a whole lot has changed:

McVay's first season with the Rams couldn't have been much more promising. He set the bar awfully high for himself going forward and generally will struggle to improve on the job he did in 2017, but McVay looks like a potential dynasty builder. Clearly more prescient than the vast majority of NFL coaches, McVay's fresh perspective as a 32-year-old head coach allows him to see things that older NFL coaches, apprenticed under premises that have long since expired, simply aren't capable of imagining. Like Doug Pederson and Sean Payton, McVay's pre-snap scheming is ambitious and fixated on the task of gaining numbers advantages at whatever point of attack the defense might give them. He raises the tempo of the offense when there's blood in the water, then scales it back once he has a lead. The extent of his 2017 success leads you to suspect that McVay will be one of the top coaches for a long time - he seems more an innovator than an imitator. His development is a credit to Jay Gruden, who employed McVay as an assistant from 2010 to 2016.

If McVay looked like a dynasty builder before, then making it to the Super Bowl in your second year as coach won't do anything to temper the expectations. If there is to be another Bill Belichick in the NFL's future, how is McVay not the favorite? He's 33 and has a 24-8 record as an NFL head coach. Preposterous.

Wade Phillips, DC, LAR

If you don't like Wade Phillips then I don't trust you one bit. Besides being one of the few plainly likable people around the sport, Phillips is one of the best defensive coordinators ever. He and his father Bum Phillips laid down the track for so many 3-4 practitioners over the decades, and particularly in terms of blitz design Wade has always been very good. His run defenses have lacked with the Rams, something that has been the case at a few points in his career, but when he has experienced and skilled personnel the stars sometimes align for a tough run defense and killer pass rush at the same time. In the meantime, even if the run defense doesn't improve, opposing quarterbacks still don't like playing against Wade.

Brian Flores, HC, MIA

Head coaching hires from the Bill Belichick coaching tree haven't turned out great so far. Romeo Crennel, Eric Mangini, and Josh McDaniels were all duds for their respective employers, while Bill O'Brien has shown up-and-down results in Houston and Matt Patricia mostly disappointed in his debut with Detroit. Flores may be unique from all of them, though, if only for his improbable tenure in New England for his age. He's only 38 but has been with the team in either a scouting capacity (2004-2007) or a coaching one (2008-2018) since he was 23, and as its play caller he by all accounts had a crucial role in the management of the 2018 New England defense. He seems tremendously respected by Patriots players, as Elandon Roberts, Matthew Slater, and Jason McCourty were all quoted with convincingly sincere praise for Flores.

Before coaching the Patriots linebackers the last three years, Flores coached the New England safeties from 2012 to 2015. He also has three years of experience as a special teams assistant. As previously noted, Flores called the plays for the New England defense in 2018, though the Patriots curiously did not give him the title of defensive coordinator for some reason.

Chad O'Shea, OC, MIA

O'Shea played quarterback as a college player at Marshall and Houston, but he quickly took up route runners as a coach at Houston, spending his time between receivers and tight ends for three years before spending three years as a special teams coach with Southern Mississippi. He was a low-level assistant with the Chiefs for three years after that, then in 2006 joined Brad Childress' Vikings as an offensive assistant for three years before joining the Patriots as wide receiver coach in 2009. It's anyone's guess what sort of schematic tendencies O'Shea might lean toward with his offense, but if he attempts to imitate the Belichick/McDaniels approach it would probably entail a somewhat uptempo offense, or at least an offense more uptempo and aggressive than the Adam Gase one before it.

Patrick Graham, DC, MIA

Graham joins Flores and O'Shea from Green Bay, where he coached linebackers last year, and he coached defensive line with the Giants the two years before. It was prior to that point that Graham's connection to Flores occurred, as Graham bounced between linebackers coach and defensive line coach for the Patriots between 2011 and 2015. Particularly with Flores' defensive background, Graham figures to be more like a driver of the Miami defense than the designer of it.

Mike Zimmer, HC, MIN

Zimmer's limitations as a coach really showed up last year. He'll be one of the league's most respected defensive coaches until the day he retires, but in the meantime he's staring down a scenario similar to Todd Bowles with the Jets before last year. Bowles, too, was an accomplished defensive coach, but he was helpless to fix the Jets' primary issue, which was its offense. Minnesota's defense was fine last year, but it disappointed relative to its earned high expectations, and the Minnesota offense regressed to a degree that knocked them out of playoff contention. Minnesota's offensive line needs to improve if the offense is to improve, and in the meantime last year showed Zimmer he and his defense can't do it himself. With a still super talented defense at his disposal, his 4-3, press- and blitz-heavy approach could bounce back in 2019. The offense remains the more significant variable by far, though, and he can do little but fire people about it.

Kevin Stefanski, OC, MIN

John DeFilippo began last year as Minnesota's offensive coordinator - a hiring that carried some substantial amount of optimism with it - yet DeFilippo got scapegoated in early December as the Vikings embarrassingly slid out of playoff contention. Whatever limitations DeFilippo had, it's not convincing to suggest that he was the cause of Minnesota's issues. Minnesota's biggest issue was its destabilizing offensive line, and beyond that they merely had an implausibly ill-timed home upset loss to Buffalo in a division where they quite simply couldn't afford it. The good news for Stefanski is he's back in 2019, and he'll have Gary Kubiak available as a consultant. Stefanski is in any case an interesting coaching prospect but one with minimal details regarding him. He's only 36, and last year marked his second as Minnesota's quarterbacks coach before he was thrown into the offensive coordinator role. It generally seems unlikely that Zimmer would let him air it out or be too aggressive with tempo.

George Johnson, DC, MIN

With Zimmer more or less running the defense, Edwards is more of a caretaker than a designer of the Minnesota defense. Zimmer values him, so perhaps he's a right-hand man, but Minnesota probably won't do much on defense that Zimmer didn't come up with himself.

Bill Belichick, HC, NE

Belichick is the best football coach ever, and he somehow only seems to be improving. Other than tempo on offense, there simply isn't anything that can be assumed with his schemes over any long haul. He's always shown a willingness and ability to execute adjustments on whatever time basis, but in the 2018 season he seemed to really take it to an extreme, to the dismay of his playoff opponents. Based on New England's current personnel, a greater run emphasis may be the new norm following an extended era of hyper-productivity from Tom Brady. But we really can't take it for granted, especially if defenses adjust to the looks New England showed toward the end of 2018.

Josh McDaniels, OC, NE

McDaniels may need to give much or most of the credit to Belichick and Tom Brady for New England's strong offenses over the years, but it also seems safe to say that Belichick values him tremendously anyway, perhaps identifying him as his most indispensable understudy. McDaniels' time as head coach in Denver was too short and turbulent to be an insightful sample, so at this point we might want to assume he has his hands in most outcomes for the New England offense. If this vision is his own, then McDaniels would seem to value tempo at the least, but in recent years New England has shown an increasing lack of predictable tendency, seemingly shedding scheme on a weekly basis, especially the more competitive the scenario. If Belichick has an heir in mind, it would seem to be McDaniels.

Greg Schiano, DC, NE

With Brian Flores off to Miami, Schiano was brought in to run the New England defense instead. Bill Belichick is very hands-on with all aspects of managing the Patriots, but it's easy to forget that Belichick was initially a defensive coach. It's therefore difficult to imagine him deferring to Schiano here - a more likely arrangement is that Belichick merely trusts and values Schiano for his positional coaching and similar football worldview. With that said, Flores was reportedly calling the plays for the Patriots defense, so perhaps this role will come with meaningful responsibility.

Sean Payton, HC, NO

From last year:

Not many are likely to remember, but Payton was once a briefly disgraced offensive coordinator way back in the 2000 season when his then team, the Giants, made a Super Bowl run after head coach Jim Fassel very visibly took away Payton's playcalling duties following a 3-4 start to the season. ... Payton's tenure has crossed different paradigms, and he as much as anyone has shown an ability to adapt to changing times. An uptempo, aggressive playcaller who's always looking for ways to dictate personnel advantages, it'd probably be fair to attribute Payton as a trail blazer for the new generation of innovative coaches like Doug Pederson, Sean McVay, and Kyle Shanahan.

Defenses seemed to clamp down a bit on the Saints offense in the second half of 2018, which exceeded 30 points only once in the final seven weeks, including the playoffs. Payton seemed a wizard for making an offense that entailed basically just two threats - Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas - that teams just could not slow despite the predictability. Perhaps that late-season swoon marked the beginning of an adjustment to whatever tricks Payton initially conceived. He's been through several stages of adjustment over the years, so it's reasonable to think he'll devise some new methods. With basically no draft picks, it's less easy to see how the Saints will add firepower.

Pete Carmichael, OC, NO

Carmichael may very well be a distinguished quarterbacks coach, but his title of offensive coordinator in New Orleans is largely ceremonial with Payton detailing the scheme and then calling its plays.

Dennis Allen, DC, NO

Allen failed as head coach in Oakland from 2012 to 2014, but for roughly the last two years in New Orleans his work has been legitimately impressive. The Saints were ruthless to opposing running backs, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry and 6.0 yards per target to the position, and the shutdown corners can deal with the rest. As a blitz-heavy 4-3 guy who favors man coverage, Allen's approach might be schematically similar to Mike Zimmer or something like that.

Pat Shurmur, HC, NYG

Here is last year's blurb on Shurmur. I'll update the situation following its quotation:

Shurmur's first stint as a head coach didn't go so well in 2011 and 2012, when he finished with a 9-23 record, but that's a small sample in a setting where basically no one succeeds. Primarily an apprentice of Andy Reid's, Shurmur's positional coaching background specialized in coaching quarterbacks, and Reid is among the best in league history as far as that one skill goes. ... Shurmur's arrival should at least stabilize the value of Odell Beckham, Sterling Shepard, and Evan Engram, but upside scenarios seem quite plausible too.

So much for the upside scenario. The Giants had their explosive moments, but not when adjusting for skill position talent, and at no point in 2018 were they meaningfully competitive. I personally believe Eli Manning is the problem, but if Shurmur agrees he evidently lacks the institutional suction to force the front office to accommodate his vision. The front office is run by David Gettleman, who is totally lost if we're being charitable, and if his stated persisting faith in Eli is anything but a smokescreen then Shurmur's in trouble. You can't win with that guy, so unless something changes Shurmur might end up being little more than a scapegoat, especially if ownership doesn't turn against Gettleman before then.

Mike Shula, OC, NYG

Pat Shurmur is a former offensive coordinator and called the plays for the Giants in 2018. It's difficult to imagine that Shula has influence beyond helping conduct practices and offer input on brainstorming sessions.

James Bettcher, DC, NYG

Bettcher was one of the top prospects under Todd Bowles in Arizona, and when Bruce Arians retired he caught on with Shurmur in New York. Despite taking over a defense lacking talent and specifically lacking the talent for Bettcher's preferred 3-4 scheming, the Giants defense probably overachieved in 2018. Bettcher did a great job in Arizona, too, so he generally looks like one of the league's top defensive coaches. The results from New York last year might not look great but, rest assured, 23.1 points allowed per game is a victory for a defense with as little talent as this one. If Bettcher gets this show running the way he wants to, then the Giants will become a pressure-heavy 3-4 scheme with some amorphous tendencies.

Adam Gase, HC, NYJ

When you wallow in garbage long enough you can learn to not only live with it, but actively feel fondness toward it. There's an entire It's Always Sunny In Philadelphia episode about this. I don't know any other explanation for the Jets' attraction to Gase, who seemed to legitimately hate his job with the Dolphins. Gase is anti-tempo on offense but, to his credit, at least used a lot of trips formations and such last year in Miami. So perhaps he'll help prop up the snap count for Robby Anderson, Quincy Enunwa, and Deontay Burnett, ensuring weapon availability for Sam Darnold in the process. But Gase showed a damning inability to evaluate talent in addition to his lopsided strategic sensibilities.

Dowell Loggains, OC, NYJ

Seeing Loggains hired as your team's offensive coordinator is like the NFL team equivalent of a downsizing announcement. He is, at best, there to execute the orders of a wildly incompetent superior. Loggains served two years as John Fox's offensive coordinator prior to helping with whatever weird stuff Gase was up to in Miami last year, and this was all allegedly done by his own free will. Gase will call the plays with the Jets, so Loggains' actual work might be limited to quarterbacks coaching.

Gregg Williams, DC, NYJ

Forget retreads, between Gase and Williams the Jets coaching staff is more like a collection of heels. Williams did do a better job in 2018 than he did in the prior seasons, to be fair, but it was still an uneven effort. While the Browns allowed only 21 passing touchdowns compared to 17 interceptions, they also got butchered all year by opposing running backs. Williams is normally a 4-3 guy, so he'll either switch the Jets to that scheme or coach outside of his preferred approach. The Jets have some talent here and there but it's generally difficult to imagine Williams is a better defensive coach than Todd Bowles.

Jon Gruden, HC, OAK

Gruden was one of the league's most accomplished practitioners of the West Coast Offense in the early-to-mid 2000s, but he couldn't advance beyond the Wild Card round in his final six seasons with Tampa Bay. That he went 4-12 in his 2018 return to Oakland wasn't terribly surprising - especially after the Khalil Mack trade - but with Mack and Amari Cooper gone Gruden did have a fairly legitimate excuse that the personnel in Oakland was impossible to win with. There's no evidence at this point that Jon deserves greater recognition than his brother Jay, but the younger Gruden's staying power in Washington might bode well for Jon. Their methods are similar - they have a strong grip on the strategic strengths of the WCO, yet both appear skeptical of the tempo trends otherwise seen with coaches like Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay. But even if Gruden's method can work with better talent, the talent problem isn't guaranteed to solve itself. Regardless of whether it's Gruden or Mark Davis who's responsible, trades like the Mack, Cooper, and Martavis Bryant deals are not encouraging for Oakland's future.

Greg Olson, OC, OAK

Olson is a longtime representative of the Mike Holmgren coaching tree, and mostly to nondescript results. He's a journeyman offensive coordinator, serving five different teams, including in his current second stint with the Raiders. Gruden probably trusts Olson, but Olson probably defers to Gruden in all meaningful senses.

Paul Guenther, DC, OAK

The Raiders defense was of course a trainwreck in 2018, but anyone could have told you that based on its poor personnel. Guenther will nonetheless need to do better than 29.2 points allowed per game if he wants to hold on to his job. He was defensive coordinator under Marvin Lewis in Cincinnati from 2014-2017.

Doug Pederson, HC, PHI

I think last year's entry for Pederson still stands up, so I'm going to cite that blurb again here:

Pederson was for a long time known as the humble backup to Brett Favre in Green Bay, but Pederson's impressive work as a coach shows he's a great deal more curious than his famous former teammate. He played under Andy Reid in Philadelphia for one year in 1999, and ten years later Reid would hire him as his offensive coordinator. Despite schooling extensively under Reid, Pederson's perspective is clearly fresher, and the work he's done running the Eagles offense since 2016 indicates an astute ability to pragmatically exploit a status quo. Basically, Pederson's ideas don't seem owed to anyone in particular, or at least not Reid alone. Some of Pederson's concepts seem more similar to someone like Chip Kelly or Rich Rodriguez. He wasn't taught to buy into such spread systems by his previous coaches, who likely regard such things the same way they would black magic. So that means Pederson gravitated toward them on his own correct suspicion that they'd give him an upper hand against NFL defenses as they're currently run. Pederson seeks to spread a defense thin by stressing the weakest spot, then preempting the defense's adjustment attempt by attacking the new vulnerability even more aggressively. Thus far, it seems like his one true tendency is taking what the defense gives him, however he has to.

Mike Groh, OC, PHI

Groh may be a fine coaching prospect to one degree or another, but in the meantime it's difficult to tell what can be attributed to him. Doug Pederson will always be rightfully credited as the person in charge of this offense, even if Groh is capable of running it himself.

Jim Schwartz, DC, PHI

Schwartz's Eagles defense suffered in 2018 as the Eagles played through an improbable number of injuries in the secondary, and the secondary is admittedly not Schwartz's area of expertise. His strength primarily pertains to the pass rush, where he's one of the league's most respected coaches. His wide-nine approach on defense emphasizes pressure on the edge by spacing the ends beyond the offensive tackles, but in Philadelphia it's generally been at no expense to the gap containment. Indeed, the Eagles' 2018 defense was memorably strong against the run. Schwartz might be on a leash after last year's disappointment, but he's a good bet to bounce back if his young cornerback group stays healthier than it did in 2018.

Mike Tomlin, HC, PIT

The high expectations of coaching in Pittsburgh provide enough pressure, and the heat is even higher now with all the truly bizarre drama with the Steelers the past two years. It's probably not fair, especially since the drama with Le'Veon Bell and Antonio Brown can largely be attributed to the Pittsburgh front office, but it seems like the seat is officially hot at this point anyway. That seems particularly unreasonable when you consider Tomlin's strong 125-66-1 record, but the Steelers haven't been to a Super Bowl since 2010 and have only advanced past the divisional round in the same span. When you have an impatient fanbase with pride wounded as badly as this one, details like that tend to drown out Tomlin's otherwise staggering accomplishments. Despite Terry Bradshaw's annual objections, Tomlin has yet to finish a season with a losing record in 12 seasons.

Randy Fichtner, OC, PIT

Fichtner is a loyal favorite of Ben Roethlisberger's as his longtime quarterbacks coach since 2010. The offense has mostly displayed the same principles since it was run under Bruce Arians, and last year's results were mostly good for the Pittsburgh offense despite its various turbulent events. Roethlisberger has always been one to take shots downfield, and Fichtner appears both willing and able to arrange further opportunities on that front.

Keith Butler, DC, PIT

Butler has coordinated the Steelers defense since 2015, and the results were very good in 2018. The Steelers pass rush might be the most feared in the league at this point, and that disruptiveness helped them limit opponents to just 5.3 yards per play, tied for sixth-fewest in the league. Their 52 sacks tied for most of the league. The Steelers defense has mostly been the same 3-4 tradition for decades now, but it seems like it has been years since it was in hands this good.

Pete Carroll, HC, SEA

Carroll appeared on the ropes prior to the 2018 season, but he bounced back after missing the playoffs to lead Seattle to a 10-6 wildcard berth. Despite the quick exit, it marked his seventh season with a playoff appearance in Seattle. If he was truly on the ropes a year ago, then he better hope his gains weren't just the result of Arizona's collapse in the NFC West.

Brian Schottenheimer, OC, SEA

Schottenheimer took all of the frustrating run-heavy tendencies of Darrell Bevell and somehow took it to a new extreme, leading Seattle to run on 52.8 percent of their plays from scrimmage after finishing 2017 with a figure of 40.6 percent. The approach largely worked, perhaps in most part due to the fact that the Seattle offensive line improved wildly over its prior efforts, but Seattle still got zapped in the playoffs against a quarterback clearly inferior to Russell Wilson. Schottenheimer and Carroll may incorrectly attribute their success last year to the increased run emphasis, but the Seahawks are only voluntarily holding themselves back with their refusal to throw early in games. Russell Wilson attempted 49.9 percent of his passes while trailing. This approach needlessly invites Too Little Too late scenarios even though they have an elite quarterback capable of establishing early leads. Take Jared Goff for contrast - probably not even half the player Wilson is - yet Sean McVay imagined things differently than Schottenheimer, with Goff throwing just 41.4 percent of his passes while trailing. That gap could very well be the margin of error, voluntarily conceded in Seattle's case. Schottenheimer knows how to run the ball well, but he and Carroll should stop wasting Wilson's prime years.

Ken Norton Jr., DC, SEA

Right or wrong, Norton's work as a defensive coordinator will be understood as an extension of Pete Carroll's work, which probably makes it more so right because Carroll is its architect. The verdict is out on Norton's grade as the conductor of the scheme, as Seattle's defense mostly lost ground last year, allowing 4.6 yards per carry to running backs and 7.5 YPA after respectively allowing 4.0 yards per carry to running backs and 6.5 YPA in 2017.

Kyle Shanahan, HC, SF

Shanahan might yet have less name recognition than his father, but the younger Shanahan is his own coach and might be even more intellectually gifted than Mike, who himself was a precocious offensive trailblazer in the 80s. You might wonder why a head coach with a 10-22 record is nowhere near the hot seat, and it's because Shanahan's skills as an adaptable tactician are so convincing. He was raised as a coach through mostly unremarkable West Coast Offense methods, initially tutored under Jon Gruden, but Shanahan isn't dogmatic as much as an unconventional pragmatist, showing a Belichickian eye to the details of play sequencing, adjusting based on the behaviors of the opponent in question. He favors a more aggressive tempo than the Grudens do in their version of the West Coast Offense, and with all the speed he's assembled he seemingly aims to move away from the power emphases of the 80s and 90s offenses his tutors forged.

Robert Saleh, DC, SF

Gus Bradley hired Saleh as linebackers coach in 2014 when Bradley took over as head coach in Jacksonville, then Shanahan hired Saleh as defensive coordinator in San Francisco before the 2017 season. Saleh has ostensibly orchestrated a similar scheme with the 49ers - a lopsided 4-3 with long-armed corners for press-heavy man coverage - but the results haven't been there yet. This might be his last year of leash.

Bruce Arians, HC, TB

Arians is back after one year of retirement, perhaps feeling lucky he got out of Arizona when he did. The Buccaneers face their own challenges as an organization, and Arizona has its own promising details in the meantime, but going to Tampa Bay gives Arians an opportunity to hit the ground running in his return to head coaching. Arians appears sold on Jameis Winston who, despite his various issues to this point, gives Arians a former top prospect heading into the prime of his career. Winston struggled to throw deep as well as Ryan Fitzpatrick did in 2018, but Arians prefers to establish downfield threats - perhaps his knowledge will help Winston develop that ability. Since prior offensive coordinator Todd Monken is very much a downfield, passing-oriented playcaller himself, the Buccaneers offense might not look meaningfully different in 2019 at a glance.

Byron Leftwich, OC, TB

Leftwich took over for Mike McCoy in Week 8 of Arizona's doomed 2018 season, but Leftwich - a holdover from Arians' prior regime (quarterbacks coach) - had to work within the conservative parameters set by coach Steve Wilks, and therefore his work following the promotion to offensive coordinator might not reflect on his own philosophy or tendencies. Indeed, that Arians brought Leftwich to apprentice under him further in Tampa would make it appear Leftwich is similarly inclined as Arians' philosophy.

Todd Bowles, DC, TB

Bowles tanked as the head coach of the Jets, but prior to that he was one of the league's most respected defensive coaches, especially among defensive backs coaches. With a 3-4 background going back to Bill Parcells' time overseeing the Jets in 2000, Bowles is more old-school than anything else, but it's worth noting that he was on the cutting edge of NFL defensive coaches when he served as Arians' defensive coordinator in Arizona in 2013 and 2014. Bowles also gets some credit for the development of James Bettcher, the promising defensive coordinator who joined the Giants after Arians' brief retirement prior to last year.

Mike Vrabel, HC, TEN

Vrabel's exact nature as a coach remains an unsettled question. It's safe to say he's relatively bold, and the Titans' willingness to ignore convention in its playcalling (remember the Kevin Byard touchdown pass?) is generally a nice thing to see. The Titans struggled to establish a coherent identity under his watch, though, and were improbably inconsistent from week to week. We know Vrabel has served extensively under Bill O'Brien and played extensively under Bill Belichick, so we can imagine he would like to emulate their practices after seeing the rewards reaped by its prior practitioners. We still don't know if he knows how to do it on his own, though. After bringing in Matt LaFleur to ostensibly be his own Sean McVay, the Titans' initial vision cracked early in the year and eventually committed to an extremely run-heavy, Derrick Henry-centered offense late in the year, out of desperation more than pragmatism.

Arthur Smith, OC, TEN

Smith is an unusual case because he's been with the Titans since 2011, serving under four different coaching staffs, which makes it difficult to discern what his personal tendencies might be. It might be a moot question - perhaps Smith's offense will work within parameters set by Vrabel rather than his own inclinations. It seems somewhat likely that's the case, in fact, because Vrabel specifically expressed hope that Smith could provide continuity the Titans otherwise lost with one-off offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur heading to Green Bay. Marcus Mariota's career has stagnated perhaps in part due to the constant coaching turnover, so it makes sense to direct Smith to work with the same concepts LaFleur did. The LaFleur offense was ostensibly exotic, featuring option plays and other novel approaches meant to take advantage of the run possibilities afforded by Marcus Mariota and Derrick Henry, but it's probably fair to figure Smith and his trench-coaching background might be more conservative than LaFleur and his quarterback-coaching background.

Dean Pees, DC, TEN

Vrabel badgered Pees out of retirement last year, and the former Baltimore defensive coordinator showed strong results in his first year with the Titans. One of the league's foremost 3-4 experts, Pees led a Titans defense with some talent but one that probably overachieved also, allowing only 18.9 points per game (third best), 7.0 yards per pass (tied for sixth-best), and 4.3 yards per carry (tied for 11th-best). Pees' next challenge will be to develop a greater pass rush - something he was rather good at in Baltimore.

Jay Gruden, HC, WAS

Gruden has a potentially doomed task ahead with Alex Smith likely out for 2019, but he's shown an ability to get decent results with patchwork personnel in the past. Note that Mark Sanchez falls well short of this definition of 'patchwork.' Whether it's Josh Johnson or someone else, Gruden is probably one of the most qualified NFL coaches to take on the lose/lose situation. He coaxed two 30-touchdown seasons out of a young Andy Dalton, and there probably aren't many other coaches who could do the same. Despite his consistently standout results, Gruden's offensive philosophy doesn't contain the tempo or exotic personnel utilized by the league's new wave of offensive coaches, instead using traditional methods of the West Coast Offense and simply doing a better job with it than most others who have tried.

Kevin O'Connell, OC, WAS

O'Connell technically replaces Matt Cavanaugh as Washington's offensive coordinator, but that Cavanaugh was technically promoted to "Senior Offensive Assistant," whatever that means, might mark O'Connell's appointment as more of an apprenticeship than a true takeover. With that said, Jay Gruden is clearly a fan of O'Connell and means to groom him for some substantial purpose.

Greg Manusky, DC, WAS

The Washington defense was precisely average in terms of yards allowed per play in 2018, tying with seven teams from 16th-thhu-22nd at 5.7 yards per play, and at 22.4 points allowed per game it ranked 15th. 'Average' would seem like a fair description of Manusky to this point, but beyond that he's otherwise a nondescript 3-4 guy who might be best known as the enemy of D.J. Swearinger, who criticized Manusky's playcalling and even questioned his work ethic. To be fair, without taking a side, it's not clear what the specific contents of Swearinger's disagreement might have been, and the team cut Swearinger rather than throw Manusky under the bus.