Justin Dunn
24-Year-Old PitcherSP
2019 Fantasy Outlook
The 19th overall pick in the 2016 draft rehabbed his stock in a return trip to High-A. After logging a 4.15 FIP, 1.56 WHIP and 6.2 K-BB% in 95.1 innings there in 2017, he notched a 3.00 FIP, 1.27 WHIP and 18.3 K-BB% in nine starts before a promotion to Double-A. His strikeout rate climbed to an elite 27.7% in the Eastern League, but his walk rate also spiked from 7.6% to 9.8%. Dunn was the secondary piece (after Jarred Kelenic) the Mariners received from the Mets in the Robinson Cano/Edwin Diaz trade. If he had even average command of his mid-90s fastball, the 23-year-old righty would be a high-probability mid-rotation starter, as he also features three quality offspeed pitches that can flash plus. His inability to consistently locate his heater may eventually push him to the bullpen. The Mariners will obviously give him every opportunity to start. He may debut in 2019, but seems unlikely to be a consistent, quality fantasy option until at least 2020. Read Past Outlooks
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#750
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$Signed a contract with the Mets in June of 2016 that includes a $2.38 million signing bonus. Traded to the Mariners in June of 2018.
Strikes out three as opener
PSeattle Mariners
September 29, 2019
Dunn issued one walk and struck out three batters over two shutout innings during Sunday's win over Oakland.
ANALYSIS
Dunn was used as the opener in all four of his MLB appearances this season and tossed two scoreless innings in three of those. He walked eight batters over his first 2.2 MLB innings but issued just one free pass over his last four frames. The 24-year-old ends the season with a 2.70 ERA.
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Pitching Appearances Breakdown
Average Pitch Count
34
Last 10 Games
34
Last 5 Games
34
How many pitches does Justin Dunn generally throw?
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
 
1-10
 
11-20
 
21-30
 
31-40
 
41-50
 
51-60
 
61-70
 
71-80
 
81-90
 
91-100
 
101-110
 
111-120
 
121+
What part of the game does Justin Dunn generally pitch?
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
 
 
 
1st
 
 
 
2nd
 
 
 
3rd
 
 
 
4th
 
 
 
5th
 
 
 
6th
 
 
 
7th
 
 
 
8th
 
 
 
9th
 
Extra
% Games Reaching Innings Threshold
% Games By Number of Innings Pitched
Left/Right Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2019
 
 
-100%
BAA vs LHP
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
BAA Batters K BB H 2B 3B HR
Since 2017vs Left .000 12 1 8 0 0 0 0
Since 2017vs Right .133 18 4 1 2 0 0 0
2019vs Left .000 12 1 8 0 0 0 0
2019vs Right .133 18 4 1 2 0 0 0
2018vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Left 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017vs Right 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Home/Away Pitching Splits
Since 2017
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2019
 
 
-100%
ERA on Road
2018
No Stats
2017
No Stats
ERA WHIP IP W L SV K/9 BB/9 HR/9
Since 2017Home 3.86 1.50 4.2 0 0 0 7.7 11.6 0.0
Since 2017Away 0.00 2.00 2.0 0 0 0 4.5 13.5 0.0
2019Home 3.86 1.50 4.2 0 0 0 7.7 11.6 0.0
2019Away 0.00 2.00 2.0 0 0 0 4.5 13.5 0.0
2018Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2018Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Home 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
2017Away 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
More Splits View More Split Stats
Stat Review
How does Justin Dunn compare to other starting pitchers?
This section compares his stats with all starting pitcher seasons from the previous three seasons (minimum 120 innings)*. The bar represents the player's percentile rank. For example, if the bar is halfway across, then the player falls into the 50th percentile for that stat and it would be considered average.

* Exit Velocity, Barrels/BBE %, Balls Hit 95+ MPH %, and Spin Rate are benchmarked against 2019 data (min 120 IP). See here for more exit velocity/barrels stats plus an explanation of current limitations with that data set.
  • K/BB
    Strikeout to walk ratio.
  • K/9
    Average strikeouts per nine innings.
  • BB/9
    Average walks per nine innings.
  • HR/9
    Average home runs allowed per nine innings.
  • Fastball
    Average fastball velocity.
  • ERA
    Earned run average. The average earned runs allowed per nine innings.
  • WHIP
    Walks plus hits per inning pitched.
  • BABIP
    Batting average on balls in play. Measures how many balls in play against a pitcher go for hits.
  • GB/FB
    Groundball to flyball ratio. The higher the number, the more likely a pitcher is to induce groundballs.
  • Left On Base
    The percentage of base runners that a pitcher strands on base over the course of a season.
  • Exit Velocity
    The speed of the baseball as it comes off the bat, immediately after a batter makes contact.
  • Barrels/BBE
    The percentage of batted ball events resulting in a Barrel. A Barrel is a batted ball with similar exit velocity and launch angle to past ones that led to a minimum .500 batting average and 1.500 slugging percentage.
  • Spin Rate
    Spin Rate is the rate of spin on a baseball after it is released. It is measured in revolutions per minute (rpm).
  • Balls Hit 95+ MPH
    The percentage of batted balls hit that met or exceeded the 95 MPH threshold.
  • Swinging Strike
    The percentage of pitches that result in a swing and a miss.
K/BB
0.56
 
K/9
6.8
 
BB/9
12.2
 
HR/9
0.0
 
Fastball
92.5 mph
 
ERA
2.70
 
WHIP
1.65
 
BABIP
.127
 
GB/FB
0.88
 
Left On Base
81.8%
 
Exit Velocity
88.0 mph
 
Barrels/BBE
0.0%
 
Spin Rate
2304 rpm
 
Balls Hit 95+ MPH
31.3%
 
Swinging Strike
6.6%
 
Advanced Pitching Stats
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Defensive Stats
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Stats Vs Today's Lineup
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2017 Fantasy Outlook
Dunn split time between the bullpen and rotation at Boston College, but he appears to have the stuff to cut it as a starter. Though not the most imposing figure, Dunn possesses a blazing fastball, above-average slider, serviceable curveball and emerging changeup. The development of that last pitch may go a long ways towards determining whether he stays in the starting rotation. While command was thought to be a chief concern, Dunn impressed during his brief time in the minors after being drafted in the first round in 2016. Dunn notched a 35:10 K:BB in 30 innings for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the short-season New York-Penn League. Dunn had a minuscule 1.50 ERA during that span. Opposing batters hit just .227 against the athletic righty. He started eight of his 11 appearances for the Cyclones. Dunn could see Low-A to begin the 2017 campaign as he builds up arm strength and the Mets manage his innings.
More Fantasy News
Gets job done as opener
PSeattle Mariners
September 25, 2019
Dunn tossed two scoreless frames as Seattle's opening pitcher and didn't factor into the decision in Tuesday's 3-0 loss to the Astros. He gave up a base hit and struck out one in the 27-pitch outing.
ANALYSIS
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Filling opener role Tuesday
PSeattle Mariners
September 23, 2019
Dunn is slated to serve as the Mariners' opening pitcher in Tuesday's game against the Astros.
ANALYSIS
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To work in opening role again
PSeattle Mariners
September 13, 2019
Dunn will open Wednesday's game against Pittsburgh, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports.
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Issues five walks in debut
PSeattle Mariners
September 12, 2019
Dunn allowed five walks and two runs in two-thirds of an inning against the the Reds on Thursday. He did not factor into the decision.
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Starting Thursday
PSeattle Mariners
September 11, 2019
Dunn will start Thursday's game against the Reds and is expected to throw a couple innings, Greg Johns of MLB.com reports.
ANALYSIS
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