Justin Nicolino

Nicolino posted an uninspiring 4.99 ERA while going 3-6 in 13 starts for the Marlins in 2016, which prompted a demotion to Triple-A New Orleans in July. He pitched somewhat better upon returning to the Marlins in a bullpen role late in the season, allowing just one run in 8.2 September innings. With a fastball that rarely breaks 90 mph, Nicolino is an extreme contact pitcher who put up a paltry 4.2 K/9 in 2016. Unfortunately, hitters also hit .317 on balls in play against him, which along with a 1.46 WHIP helps explains the high ERA. Nicolino hasn't struck out hitters at a rate of even 6.5 K/9 since High-A, so it would be shocking if he posts average strikeout numbers going forward. Even if he returns to the rotation in 2017, Nicolino's complete lack of strikeouts and inability to keep runners off base makes him someone to largely avoid in fantasy.

Baseball Reference lists Nicolino’s nickname as "Big Bird," and if pictures were used in these player outlooks the nickname's origin would be obvious. Nicolino's 7.6-percent K rate in 74 IP is the lowest in that many innings since Aaron Cook's 4.9 percent in 94 IP in 2012. Unfortunately, this fits Nicolino’s upper minors work. In 285 IP at Double-A and Triple-A since 2014, he combined for just a 12-percent rate (4.5 K/9). At least Cook had an elite groundball rate to go with his strikeout ineptitude. Nicolino picked the worst era in which to have a strikeout deficiency. It’s hard to find a league type where you would want to bet on this profile.

Nicolino improved his stock in the Marlins' packed farm system, making 25 starts for Double-A Jacksonville in which he hurled 170.1 innings and registered a 2.85 and 1.07 WHIP. Nicolino collected a modest 4.3 K/9 and though his low strikeout totals are a cooler to his long-term fantasy outlook, the Marlins are surely pleased with the 23-year-old’s plus command as he totaled a 4.05 K/BB ratio during his fourth season in the minors. Of course, luck was also a contributor, as Nicolino benefitted from the lowest BABIP of his professional career (.276) during the 2014 campaign. Nicolino is likely to break camp with Triple-A New Orleans after proving his mastery of Double-A competition during a very successful season last year and he’s got an outside shot at making starts for the Marlins this summer as well.

Nicolino struggled to get going following a promotion to Double-A last season, posting a 4.96 ERA and 1.66 WHIP in nine starts (45.1 innings ) compared to the sparkling 2.23 ERA and 1.11 WHIP he posted over 18 starts (96.2 innings) at High-A Jupiter. The blame cannot entirely be placed on the pitcher as he suffered an unfortunate 97-point spike in his BABIP to .388 during his time at Double-A. Lacking elite strikeout ability, Nicolino leans on steady command (3.16 K/BB in 2013) and an advanced approach, frequently mixing location and velocity, to get by. Another trip through Double-A is the likely course of action for Nicolino in 2014 with the chance for a second-half promotion if he pitches well down on the farm.

A former second-round pick, Nicolino was included in the blockbuster deal between the Jays and Marlins in November. As a 21-year-old left-hander with control, Nicolino should progress somewhat quickly through the Marlins' system after carrying a 5.7 K/BB in the Midwest League last season. By most accounts, he has the ceiling to be a good big league starter, but the upside appears to be limited to that of a mid-rotation option as the strikeout rate could tumble a bit as he faces more advanced hitters at higher levels.

The 2nd round pick from 2010 had a very fine season at Low-A and Single-A in 2011, posting a 1.33 ERA across 15 appearances (12 starts) and striking out 73 batters in 61 innings with just 13 walks. His low-90s fastball is complemented with some nice secondary offerings so he should continue to dominate at the lower levels.