This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
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Overall: 55-41, +6.62 RWBucks
Pirates vs. Mets, 1:05 p.m. EDT
JT Brubaker vs. Taijuan Walker
For a team that should be in tank mode, someone should tell the Pirates, who are on a 7-3 run in their last 10 games. They are hitting .303 and averaging 4.9 runs per game. The Pirates have scored about one more run per game at home vs. on the road this year (4.1 vs. 3.1). They have also beaten the Mets three in a row and four of six this season, averaging five runs per game (two were seven-inning doubleheaders).
The Mets are a different team on the road (19-28) than at home (28-14). Walker just faced the Pirates at home, going five innings and allowing two earned runs but only getting two strikeouts while issuing three walks for one of his worst starts of the season.
I think we get a little bit of a low total here with the Mets home record and previously poor hitting Pirates influencing the 8 vs. what should be 8.5.
BET: Pirates over 3.5 runs (-105) for 1 RWBuck
Brewers at Reds, 1:10 p.m. EDT
The Reds are a home dog due to Corbin Burnes on the opposite side. This situation does not favor the Reds. They are just 1-6 as home dogs this year and 2-5 to the over. So not only do they lose, but they are losing high-scoring games (avg. 6.0 to 4.1). Most of these games have seen a superior starting pitcher for the visiting team. This includes twice for the Brewers with Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta. (7-4 and 9-4).
I am not looking to lay -1.5 runs or take the Brewers on the money line at -140. I like the value of taking the Brewers team total over, as this total has moved from 8 to 7.5 and the side from -130 to -140.
BET: Brewers over 4 runs (+104 FanDuel)
Orioles at Royals, 2:10 p.m. EDT
Matt Harvey vs. Carlos Hernandez
What do you get when you have two bad teams and two bad starting pitchers? Usually the answer is over the run total.
The Royals are a home favorite with a total of 10 this afternoon. They have been in this scenario nine times this year (home favorite with a total between 9.5-10.5) and are 6-3 to the over. The average runs in these games has been 11.6 runs and both games vs. the Orioles have had 12 and 11 runs. More of the same.
BET: Over 10 runs (-104) for 1 RWBuck
Athletics vs. Indians, 4:07 p.m. EDT
Bassitt and the A's come into Sunday as solid home favorites (-165) and with a low game total of 8. Those are two qualifiers I look for when taking the over on a pitcher strikeout prop.
Bassitt has extremely favorable home splits with 0.92 strikeouts per inning, 6.6 innings per start, 2.55 ERA and 0.92 WHIP. In the eight starts he has pitched at least seven innings, he has a 54:8 K/BB, 1.53 ERA and 0.68 WHIP. The Indians have the eighth-highest strikeout rate (25.3 percent) in this split (vs. RHP/Away) and the second-lowest wRC+ (64) in the last 30 days.
BET: Bassitt over 6.5 strikeouts (+115) for 1 RWBuck
