Mound Musings: Predicting Future Success

You all know my observations and expectations are based on a combination of what is commonly called the "eye test," or what I see, and analytics, that being performance-based results equated to numeric ratings or rankings. When asked what I expect from a pitcher for the rest of the season, or for future seasons, I use my eye test observations (okay, I'm a bit old school) and I try to provide some thoughts on what to expect and why. What you don't always see is an ongoing process of validating those eye test expectations with analytics. This is the basis of fantasy baseball. It's relatively easy to assign estimated value based on past performance. But, success is predicated on predicting the future, and that objective should always be at the forefront.

That said, I would like to explore a recent analysis I did based on my observations of which statistics can be predictive of success going forward. I first focused on two key numbers for starting pitchers:

• BB/9: This number actually contributes to predicting success in several ways. A lower walk rate obviously means fewer baserunners, and with all the homeruns these days, that equates to fewer runs against your pitcher. However, it should be noted that a low walk rate also helps reduce pitch counts, hopefully helping the pitcher qualify for a win (fewer innings from poor relievers), and, in leagues that count them, more chances for that rare commodity – a quality start.
• K/9: Strikeouts are counted as a statistical category in most fantasy leagues, so that's an obvious benefit, but a high strikeout rate is also indicative of a pitcher's ability to escape trouble. A high strikeout rate equates to better "stuff," including a repertoire with three or more reliable pitches, the ability to change speeds and a consistent release point that makes it difficult for hitters to identify a pitch.

Using those stats as my base, I placed a hard cap on the BB/9 number of 2.0, therefore eliminating any starting pitcher who walks an average of more than two batters per nine innings. I then looked at pitchers who averaged roughly one strikeout per inning. Of note, that is rather common in today's game, as the average strikeout rate has, for the first time in history, surpassed a strikeout per inning (9.1). Combining the hard cap on walk rate and an acceptable strikeout rate, my baseline becomes a 4.5/1 K/BB ratio. To make the list, that base ratio was mandatory, but I also preferred pitchers with a fastball velocity of 94 to 95 mph (indicative of at least a bit better than an average power arm). Overall, 13 starting pitchers made the list, however, only eight qualified in all parameters. Most were completely expected, but there were a handful of surprises.

I don't think anyone will be shocked when I say Jacob deGrom set the standard for our list. He had the highest fastball velocity (99.3), the highest K/9 (14.4) and the second lowest BB/9 (1.2) giving him a K/BB rate of 13.3, which far outdistanced the competition. Conceding the win to deGrom, as he's a pretty safe bet to remain successful as long as he stays healthy, let's analyze the other 12 qualifiers on the list with added focus on the eight who qualified in all parameters:

Seeking a Formula for Success

Milwaukee's Corbin Burnes (8.0 K/BB) and the Yankees' Gerrit Cole (6.8 K/BB) are at the top of the list, and both are generally considered elite starting pitchers. But, they do have potential concerns. Burnes has experienced some shoulder issues – always scary – and Cole's performance has tailed off quite a bit of late, especially since the crackdown on sticky stuff. I also included average fastball spin rate on the chart since the impact of not having access to grip-enhancing substances is a wild card at this time. We simply can't say for certain how it will affect pitchers. For reference, both Burnes (the highest spin rate among qualifiers at 2728 rpm) and Cole pretty easily exceed the average fastball spin rate of just under 2200 rpm.

The next arm I want to look at is Dodgers young southpaw Julio Urias (5.9 K/BB), one of three Dodgers starters to make this list of 13. That's pretty amazing, and Urias might be a bit of a surprise, but he has all the numbers to make him a good bet to enjoy success over the second half of the season. The only real concern is possible workload restrictions. He has a spotty injury history. The Phillies Zack Wheeler (5.6 K/BB) has been nothing short of dominating, and with Philadelphia's arson squad bullpen, for him, getting very deep into games is not only preferred, it's almost mandatory. 

Max Scherzer (5.2 K/BB) is next up. His inclusion certainly isn't shocking. Mad Max is currently attempting to almost single-handedly pitch the Nationals into playoff contention, and, given his fiery tenacity, he might succeed. But, the next name might be the biggest surprise on the list. Mariners' youngster Logan Gilbert (4.9 K/BB) actually compares very similarly to Scherzer. His walk rate, strikeout rate and velocity are all comparable. A word of warning: While Gilbert has been one of the most impressive pitching prospects to debut his year, this is a very small sample size, and his performance could dip as hitters become more familiar. Still, the potential to enjoy more success is there.

The last, (but not the least IMHO) of the full qualifiers is Walker Buehler (4.6 K/BB). He has the velocity to go with a low BB/9, but his strikeout rate has been a bit disappointing. He has the stuff/command combo to improve his peripherals, so I include him with fellow Dodger Urias as a couple pitchers with the potential to perform even better.

I'm sure you have noticed I skipped over a few pitchers on the overall list. These are guys who had the base qualifiers but came up just a bit short in one or more of the others. Clayton Kershaw was slightly below the preferred fastball velocity, but the veteran ace has such good command of all his pitches that he should probably be an honorary full qualifier. Zach Eflin is a pitcher who might actually throw too many strikes. He had the lowest walk rate (1.1/9), but his average stuff makes quite a few of those strikes hittable. To a lesser extent, Baltimore's John Means is similar. Conversely, Nathan Eovaldi has the big arm, but his secondary stuff is a bit too inconsistent and suppresses his strikeout rate. And finally, another fairly surprising member of our list, a former highly regarded young lefty, Kolby Allard just snuck in with a 4.5/1 K/BB ratio. Like Gilbert, his numbers are based on a small sample, but he might be a sleeper for second half contribution.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• As mentioned above, the Dodgers have an abundance of high-quality starting pitching, but recent events may have an impact on that depth. Trevor Bauer was involved in an off-field altercation, and he is currently on administrative leave pending the outcome of the league's investigation of the situation.
• I have watched the last couple starts of the Angels' Patrick Sandoval, as he hints he could be close to becoming a viable back-of-the-rotation fantasy option. He just needs to get ahead in the count more consistently, as his off-speed stuff, particularly his changeup, offers substantial swing-and-miss potential.
• Miami has lost its top pitching prospect, Sixto Sanchez, for the rest of the 2021 season. He has long been considered a high reward prospect with a high injury risk attached. He has gone through on again, off again rehab for his balky shoulder, but surgery will take him out until, hopefully, next spring.
• One outing does not a turnaround make, but it is a good start. Kenta Maeda has struggled with his command all season, but in his last start, he was consistently hitting his spots with his full repertoire. He went six shutout innings, allowing just two hits and one walk while striking out 10. He could be poised to go on a roll.
• The Giants Kevin Gausman continues to be dominant while being virtually a two pitch pitcher – his signature splitter and a fastball. He just narrowly missed making our test list, because his walk rate (2.1/9) was slightly above the hard cap. Still, very good command certainly seems to be a growing predictor of success.
• A high strikeout rate certainly has its benefits, but some pitchers, for example Seattle's Chris Flexen, have enjoyed some success with a low walk rate (1.8/9) despite a very low strikeout rate (6.0/9). There are some who feel command and a more finesse style of pitching – at least some semblance of it – could return.

Endgame Odyssey:

Finding saves continues to be a major problem in fantasy circles. A huge percentage of teams are now deploying something between a committee and a musical chairs scenario at the back of their bullpens. One exception has been the Yankees, which may not be the case right now. Aroldis Chapman has been money in the bank until recently, but he has allowed nine runs over his last four appearances. Even though Zach Britton is still trying to get everything together following an injury-riddled first half, the Yankees have to be hoping he can come to the rescue. A benefit the Red Sox have taken advantage of is not having to rotate closers. Adam Ottavino has collected a few saves, but it's generally when Matt Barnes is unavailable. Barnes has really stepped it up in 2021. In Miami, Yimi Garcia has been a bit shaky of late, and Anthony Bender actually picked up a recent save, but Garcia remains their best option and should have a relatively long leash, assuming he is with the Marlins past the trade deadline. The Reds have fought their way into the hunt, but they are missing the injured Tejay Antone and Lucas Sims. Earlier this week, they took a three-run lead into the ninth. An error hurt, but Brad Brach, Heath Hembree and Amir Garrett all took a turn without finishing it. It looks like Hembree might currently be sharing closing duties with Garrett depending on matchups. I think Kendall Graveman is probably the primary closer in Seattle, but a dark horse is quietly putting himself in position to get into the mix. I've watched Drew Steckenrider a couple times, and he has impressed. The M's could potentially opt to free up Graveman for work other than the ninth inning. The A's Trevor Rosenthal was working his way back from thoracic outlet surgery last April, but he tore a labrum in his hip, also requiring surgery, so he is done for 2021.

This coming weekend includes two highlights of the season for me. So, for the next couple weeks we will look at the First Year Player Draft and the Futures Game. You won't want to miss those upcoming editions of Mound Musings!