Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Some notable hurlers are making big moves through the first month or so of the minor league campaign. Washington's Cade Cavalli has mowed down the competition at High-A by fanning a staggering 71 batters in 40.2 innings. His last outing proved to be a virtuoso performance punching out 15 hitters over seven no-hit innings.  Cavalli has produced four double-digit strikeout games across his last five contests and should shortly move up to Double-A.

Meanwhile, Grayson Rodriguez's promotion to Double-A hasn't affected his overall production allowing only one earned run while striking out 14 hitters in his first two starts. He and fellow Double-A rotation mate DL Hall should give the Orioles some excitement for their pitching future.

And when is the Reds duo of Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo going to get their due? Greene has posted a 1.98 ERA and 60:14 K:BB in 41 innings at Double-A, while Lodolo's ERA is a minuscule 0.90 while recording 45:6 K:BB in just 30 innings. While Greene gets it done with his triple-digit heater, Lodolo hits his spots with superior command. Both pitchers have improved their stock tremendously thus far in 2021.

Let's take a look at some other movers and shakers in this edition of the Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Nolan Gorman, 3B, STL – Gorman had an absurd last seven days blasting seven homers in a five-game span for Double-A Springfield. Over his last 10 contests, he's batting .409 with a ridiculous .909 slugging percentage. The presence of Nolan Arenado at the hot corner may make Gorman's future position on the diamond murky. But if he continues to show this type of power production, the Cardinals will have little choice but to find a spot for his bat in the lineup.

Spencer Torkelson, 3B, DET – Torkelson has been white-hot of late hitting .420 with four home runs and 17 RBI over the last 21 days at High-A, which resulted in a much-deserved promotion to Double-A. The Tigers have a mismatched infield right now with a hodgepodge of players covering the hot corner so far this season. While it does not appear Torkelson will get meaningful at-bats at the big league level in 2021, he could become a cornerstone for the Tigers infield as early as next year.

Shane Baz, P, TB – Baz has tossed 10 scoreless innings over two starts for Double-A Montgomery  while fanning 14 batters and failing to issue a single free pass. His control has been stupendous with an outrageous 49:2 K:BB this season in addition to batters hitting .190 against while registering a 2.48 ERA. The emergence of Baz's changeup as a weapon in addition to his blazing fastball and stellar slider have only made him even more successful. If this newfound command/control is for real, then the Rays could have yet another elite prospect to add to their stash.

Diego Cartaya, C, LAD – Unlike Tyler Soderstrom, Cartaya should stick at catcher as he makes his way through the Dodgers organization. Cartaya missed the first couple of weeks of the minor league season due to injury, but is tearing the cover off the ball since his return hitting .370/.455/.8848 with six home runs and 18 RBI across 12 games at Low-A. The learning curve is steep for catchers (just ask fellow Dodgers prospect Keibert Ruiz) and a lot can change between now and when Cartaya eventually makes his way to the big leagues. Still, it's a strong start and his upside is certainly worth noting.

CHECK STATUS

Tyler Soderstrom, C, OAK – Soderstrom's bat was never really questioned during the 2020 Draft process, so perhaps it should come as no surprise he's raking at Low-A to begin his professional career. Only 19, he's slashing .299/.398/.511 with five home runs, 26 RBI and two steals through 35 contests. Although Soderstrom has fanned 42 times over that stretch, he's also displayed patienced by drawing 19 walks. The only issue is whether he will remain at catcher, though his bat should be able to carry him even with a move out to third base or the outfield.

Joe Gray, OF, MIL – Gray's numbers jump off the page at Low-A coming from virtual anonymity to post eye-popping numbers to start 2021. He was actually a second-round pick in 2018 and failed to hit over .185 during short stints in the Pioneer and Arizona Rookie Leagues. Fast forward to this year and Gray is suddenly posting .292/.388/.699 with 10 home runs, 40 RBI and eight steals in 34 contests. At 21, perhaps he's a bit old for this league, but it's difficult to ignore the production.  We'll get a better idea of Gray's future path once he gets promoted to High-A and beyond.

Zac Veen, OF, COL – On the plus side, Veen has racked up 20 steals in 34 games at Low-A. He's also managed 26 walks, an impressively high number especially considering he's still a teenager.  On the downside, Veen has already fanned 42 times while batting just .227 and has yet to hit a home run. He was viewed as having elite raw power and bat speed at draft time, so the lack of power is a bit curious. In addition, compare Veen's numbers to Robert Hassell - also 19 and at Low-A - who was taken one pick before Veen in 2020 and is slashing .300/.387/.514 with four home runs, 30 RBI and 12 steals. The sample sizes are small and the careers of these two players are just beginning, but Veen is struggling to make consistent (and powerful) contact, while Hassell does not appear to be experiencing the same issues.

Evan Carter, OF, TEX – Only 18, Carter has shown incredible plate discipline to begin his young career. Currently at Low-A, he's recorded more walks (34) than strikeouts (28) en route to a .438 OBP. Carter is only batting .236, though he does have two homers, 12 RBI and 12 steals. A second-round selection in the 2020 Draft and the valedictorian of his high-school class, he can generate ample bat speed and projects to hit for more power as he matures. In a Texas system starving for young talent, Carter could be gaining steam as a prospect to watch.

MJ Melendez, C, KC – Melendez has yo-yoed back and forth between top prospect to afterthought and now back to the prospect charts. At 19 in 2018, Melendez cracked 19 home runs and became one of the more highly touted backstop prospects in baseball. However, 2019 was a bust hitting a putrid .163 at High-A while striking out 165 times in 110 games and only managing nine long balls.  Now 22 and at Double-A, Melendez appears to have found his power stroke again with 10 home runs in 29 appearances. Perhaps more importantly, he's being more selective at the dish as his walks are up and his strikeouts are down. Melendez may never hit for average, but he'll offer value at a thin position like catcher if he can continue to draw walks and hit some homers. Salvador Perez is still performing at a high level, but is also not getting any younger.

DOWNGRADE

Benyamin Bailey, OF, CHW –  Bailey was one of the prospects most hurt by the layoff due to the pandemic. He boasts the size, athleticism and raw talent, but simple lack of reps may have stunted his growth. Bailey started the season in Low-A, but hit just .156/.226//195 with one home run and zero stolen bases in 21 contests - a far cry from his domination of the Dominican Summer League in 2019. He was still considered several years away from making the big leagues even before the season started, but his rough beginning has only amplified the fact he remains mostly a projection at this point.

Kameron Misner, OF, MIA – The No. 35 overall selection in 2019, Misner has struggled a bit so far at High-A slashing just .195/.321/.354 with three home runs, 12 RBI and 10 steals through 31 outings. He offers an intriguing combination of speed and size, though the latter has not translated to many homers yet. Misner is also behind JJ Bleday on the depth chart and the Marlins have a plethora of outfield prospects spread out among the other levels, including Jesus Sanchez and Peyton Burdick. As a result, Misner may be blocked as he ascends to the higher levels.

Josiah Gray, P, LAD – Gray recently missed a golden opportunity while he was injured, as the Dodgers needed a spot starter prior to Tony Gonsolin coming back from the Injured List.  Unfortunately, Gray was shelved at the time due to shoulder impingement and still isn't back to full health. The Dodgers have kept quiet on the severity of his injury with very little news after a full month on the IL. Prior to getting hurt, Gray was viewed as a surefire bet to debut as a starter this season based on three pitches and exceptional athleticism. Unfortunately, that may have to wait.