NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

NL FAAB Factor: Waiver Pickups of the Week

This article is part of our NL FAAB Factor series.

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

Thanks to Paul Martinez for filling in the first two weeks. You will – and likely have seen – that my bids are a bit more aggressive than Paul's and Jason Shebliske's mid-week FAAB suggestion. These are just a guide, so use and adjust at your leisure.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Johnny CuetoSFSPC51118
Jose De LeonCINSPD015
Chi Chi GonzalezCOLSPENoNo3
Adrian HouserMILSPD147
Kwang Hyun KimSTLSPD147
Trevor Rogers

We have two goals for this article: 

1. Identify likely free agents and discuss their strengths and weaknesses.

2. Estimate how much of your $100 starting free-agent budget you should bid on them.

Bids in general are best guesstimates. With so much uncertainty at least initially, those values may be even greater estimates than usual. The FAAB chart below lets users easily see at a glance how certain players stack up against others and how much they should command in a variety of formats.

The chart, which is sortable by column (click on the header), include a very basic "player grade" column. This serves as a reflection of a player's skills and role on an A-E scale. An "A" grade is reserved for a high-impact prospect stepping into an everyday role.

If you have questions on players, I'm happy to provide my thoughts in the comments.

Thanks to Paul Martinez for filling in the first two weeks. You will – and likely have seen – that my bids are a bit more aggressive than Paul's and Jason Shebliske's mid-week FAAB suggestion. These are just a guide, so use and adjust at your leisure.

PLAYERTEAMPOSGRADE12-Team Mixed $15-Team Mixed $NL-Only $
Johnny CuetoSFSPC51118
Jose De LeonCINSPD015
Chi Chi GonzalezCOLSPENoNo3
Adrian HouserMILSPD147
Kwang Hyun KimSTLSPD147
Trevor RogersMIASPC816Rostered
Joe RossWASSPD147
Aaron SanchezSFSPD2711
Drew SmylyATLSPD3914
Huascar YnoaATLSPE015
Jose AlvaradoPHIRPD159
Richard BleierMIARPENoNo2
Dylan FloroMIARPD015
Yimi GarciaMIARPC71422 (likely rostered)
Chris DevenskiAZRPD147
Kevin GinkelAZRPD2711
Yoan LopezAZRPE015
Brad BoxbergerMILRPD014
Victor GonzalezLARPC159
Corey KnebelLARPD3914
Blake TreinenLADRPE147
Sean NewcombATLRPE147
Omar NarvaezMILCC511Rostered
Tyler StephensonCINCE159 (up in keeper leagues)
Stephen VogtAZCE015
Edwin RiosLA1BD015
Garrett HampsonCOL2BB2233Rostered
Zach McKinstryLA2BD2711
Jose PerazaNYM2BENoNo3
Jace PetersonMIL2BE015
Brendan RodgersCOL2BD147 (early spec return bid)
Eduardo EscobarAZ3BC1525Rostered
Nick AhmedAZSSD612Rostered
Ha-Seong KimSDSSD147
Alan TrejoCOLSSENoNo3
Jonathan VillarNYMSSD147 (stolen base potential)
Kole CalhounAZOFC1828Rostered
Austin DeanSTLOFE015
Tim LocastroAZOFD2711
Tyler NaquinCINOFD91827

STARTING PITCHER 

Johnny Cueto, Giants: Cueto saw minimal action in 2018 and 2019, but notched almost as many innings last season as those two years combined. His fastball velocity is about the same this season, but his changeup and deception on the mound have been even more of a weapon by generating a major spike in swinging strikes. Cueto has been brilliant his first two starts posting a 2.51 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 14:4 K:BB across 14.1 innings. He's in a good pitcher's park, but the wheels will likely fall off at some point. Regardless, Cueto should be able use his veteran wiles to get by. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $18

Jose De Leon, Reds: De León, a former top-30 prospect before injuries derailed him and profiled last week, made his first MLB start since 2016 on Monday against the Pirates. After making a few adjustments during the spring - including changing his leg kick on the mound - De León claimed a spot in the Reds rotation. He struck out nine over five-plus innings, relying on a sinker that averaged 94 mph. Despite the fine outing, De León could get bumped from the rotation with Sonny Gray returning this week, though it's possible Jeff Hoffman is the odd-man out. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5

Chi Chi Gonzalez, Rockies: Gonzalez, who opened the season in the bullpen, moved into the starting rotation Saturday and gave up one run on four hits and three walks while striking out one in a no-decision against the Giants. He was brutal last year when not sidelined with biceps tendinitis and was non-tendered in December before re-upping with Colorado on a minor-league deal. Gonzalez should get at least one more turn in the rotation, but be careful not to expect much. 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $3 

Adrian Houser, Brewers: Houser claimed the fifth spot in the Brewers' rotation this spring and likely earned a bit more of a hold on the job two starts into the season. He earned his first win of the season Saturday giving up one unearned run on six hits with three strikeouts and four walks over five innings. To keep that spot, Houser will need to see an uptick in his swinging strike rate and improvement in the bite on his slider, each of which fell off last season following his brilliant 2019 campaign. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 

Kwang Hyun Kim, Cardinals: Kim came over before last season from Korea and opened 2020 in the bullpen before shifting to the starting rotation. He finished with a stellar 1.62 ERA in 39 innings, aided by a .217 BABIP and 86.6% strand rate supported by a 50.0% groundball rate and 7.8 BB%. Kim, who looks like a back-of-the-rotation option than a frontline starter given his low 15.6 K%, landed on the IL before the season with a back injury. He is slated to throw 90 pitches in a simulated game at the Cardinals' alternate training site Sunday and could rejoin the rotation. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

Trevor Rogers, Marlins: Rogers, selected with the 13th pick in 2017 by Miami, received a $3.4 million bonus. He was a fastball/slider pitcher when drafted and has improved his curveball and changeup since joining the Marlins. Rogers finished the spring with a 2.84 ERA and dominant 29:5 K:BB through 19 innings to secure a spot in Miami's rotation. He didn't have a great first start, but was brilliant Saturday giving up three hits and two walks while striking out 10 over six scoreless innings to outduel Jacob deGrom and collect the win over the Mets. 12-team Mixed: $8, 15-team Mixed: $16; 12-team NL: Rostered

Joe Ross, Nationals: Ross looked to be on the upside after his 2015-16 campaigns, but tore his UCL in 2017 and was sidelined for most of the past three seasons. And when he did pitch, the results were a minimum 5.00 ERA. After sitting out all of 2020, Ross hurled five shutout innings Friday against the Dodgers allowing two hits while striking out four. LA was without Cody Bellinger, and Mookie Betts, but the start was still impressive. Ross is lined up to serve as the Nationals' fourth or fifth starter. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

Aaron Sanchez, Giants: Since 2016, Sanchez's career has been plagued by injuries and inconsistency. A shoulder issue sidelined Sanchez all of last season, but he's fully healthy and filling the Giants' fifth starter role. He allowed one run over five innings in his first start of the season while heavily using his curveball. In his prime, Sanchez was a quasi-elite pitcher, but that was half-a-decade ago. He's in the right place for a revival and is worth a look as San Francisco has done a decent job rejuvenating pitchers. 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Drew Smyly, Braves: Smyly partially resurrected his career last year in San Francisco with 26.1 innings backed by a 2.6-mph jump in fastball velocity, which was enough to convince the Braves to give him a one-year, $11-million deal. As the team's fourth starter with Mike Soroka (Achilles/shoulder) out, Smyly enjoyed a great first start by tossing six innings and only allowing two earned runs while striking out eight. He has become mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher while sparingly using his cutter. If Smyly can keep the Braves in games, their offense should enable him to post a solid win total. 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14

Huascar Ynoa, Braves: Ynoa was far from impressive last season, but he broke camp as the fifth starter with Mike Soroka (Achilles/shoulder) sidelined. His fastball sits in the upper 90s and he also features a slider as his No. 2 pitch to go along with a changeup that he doesn't throw nearly as often. Ynoa was solid in his first start by not allowing a run over five innings while striking out five and allowing two hits plus a walk. Bryse Wilson was the presumed No. 5 starter, but the Braves are likely to give Ynoa at least another start or two, especially if he displays the improved control he showed during that first appearance. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

RELIEF PITCHER

Jose Alvarado, Phillies: Alvarado may be next in line behind Hector Neris in the Philly bullpen. Archie Bradley is there, but Alvarado's stuff could give him an edge. He looked to be the next big thing in 2018, but injuries, inconsistency and family issues derailed that effort. Alvarado looks to be back, showing improved control since arriving in Philly and notching the save this past Monday. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9 

Richard Bleier/Dylan Floro/Yimi Garcia, Marlins: Garcia tossed a perfect ninth to lock down the save Saturday for the Marlins after Anthony Bass - who blew two straight save opportunities to start the season - was removed from the closer role. Garcia looked to be the favorite to close before Bass was signed after a strong 2020 where he posted an 0.60 ERA (1.65 FIP, 3.20 xFIP) and 11.40 K:9 across 15.0 IP. Bass's struggles have resulted in the change with Garcia the primary beneficiary. Floro and Bleier, who worked the seventh and eighth innings Saturday, could also factor into Miami's closing equation, but Garcia is the clear favorite and made a strong initial statement to prove the job should be his. Bleier - 12-team Mixed: No, 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team NL: $2; Floro - 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5: Garcia - 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: $16 (though likely rostered)

Brad Boxberger, Brewers: Boxberger's velocity, up over two MPH last year, has increased another 1.6 MPH. He's down the bullpen packing order in Milwaukee, but notched a save Wednesday. If Boxberger's velo remains up, he should continue to be a key part of the Brewers' setup crew in front of Josh Hader. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $4

Chris Devenski/Kevin Ginkel/Yoan Lopez, Diamondbacks: The Arizona bullpen is unsettled in general, but even more so with Joakim Soria landing on the IL with a strained calf. Devenski notched a save before blowing his next chance and then landing on the restricted list due to a family issue. Ginkel missed time with an illness, but hasn't been scored on in four appearances. If his control is like it was in 2019 rather than 2020, he will see his fair share of save chances. Lopez was brilliant in 2019, but regressed mightily last year and was a longshot to break camp. He earned a roster spot with a strong spring and also could be in the saves mix. I still think Stefan Crichton - profiled last week - and Soria are the favorites to earn the lion's share of the saves, but nothing is set in stone.  Devenski - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7; Ginkel - 12-team Mixed: $2, 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11: Lopez - 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 

Victor Gonzalez/Corey Knebel/Blake Treinen, Dodgers: Evil Knebel struggled early in 2020 after missing 2019 due to Tommy John surgery. But late in the season, there were signs he was back as he hit 96 mph on the radar gun and only allowed two earned runs over his final 6.2 innings. The Dodgers signed Knebel to a one-year, $5.25 million contract in January. And with manager Dave Roberts monitoring Kenley Jansen's workload early this season, Knebel has already notched a pair of saves. Given the issues Jansen endured last year, Roberts may turn to Knebel more often as the new grip on his curveball has resulted in a higher spin rate and movement. Treinen - who rebounded a bit last year following a nightmarish 2019 - and Gonzalez - who already has three holds and is LA's top lefty reliever - are also in the mix. Gonzalez - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9; Knebel - 12-team Mixed: $3, 15-team Mixed: $9; 12-team NL: $14: Treinen - 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

Sean Newcomb, Braves: Newcomb has been solid out of the bullpen early this season and is being used in more high-leverage situations. He tossed 1.2 scoreless innings to notch the win Saturday after notching his first save Wednesday. With Chris Martin landing on the injured list with right shoulder inflammation, Newcomb should move up the bullpen pecking order. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7

CATCHER 

Omar Narvaez, Brewers: Milwaukee acquired Narvaez from Seattle in a trade before the 2020 season to replace the loss of Yasmani Grandal in free agency. That deal proved to be a bust for the Brewers as Narvaez looked overmatched most of the short season and struck out at an alarmingly high rate, with just about every offensive measure in the bottom 10th percentile of the league and regressing even greater than anticipated. His hot start to 2021 has seen him homer as many times as he did all of last season while posting strong across-the-board ratios aided by a spike in line drive percentage. 12-team Mixed: $5, 15-team Mixed: $11; 12-team NL: Rostered

Tyler Stephenson, Reds: Stephenson, selected in the first round in 2015, is starting one-third of the games behind the plate for the Reds. Cinci designated Curt Casali for assignment after the 2020 season, opening the door for Stephenson to see a spike in action. Tucker Barnhart is the better defensive catcher, but Stephenson could work himself into more playing time as the season progresses and the Reds face more left-handed starters. 12-team Mixed: $1, 15-team Mixed: $5; 12-team NL: $9 (future spec playing time) 

Stephen Vogt, Diamondbacks: Vogt received a reprieve when Daulton Varsho was optioned back to the alternate site late in the spring. He has made the most of his opportunities by driving in six runs while basically splitting time behind the plate with Carson Kelly. The batting and on-base averages are still weak, but Vogt should continue to see consistent playing time if he remains productive at the plate. 12-team Mixed: $0, 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5

FIRST BASE

Edwin Rios, Dodgers: Rios can play first and third, but is blocked by Max Muncy and Justin Turner at the two slots. He is line for at-bats when LA plays in AL parks when he or the aforementioned two can slot in as the DH. Rios's value is minimal in mixed-leagues, but in NL-only formats is worth a bench spot due to the potential to receive at-bats. 12-team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team NL: $5 

SECOND BASE 

Garrett Hampson, Rockies: Hampson is still only rostered by slightly over 60 percent of CBS Sports leagues, al though that number should continue to rise. He notched a three-steal game Wednesday and is seeing time at second base with Brendan Rodgers out and center field where he should see most of his playing time in the future. Hampson entered 2019 hot and carried that performance into 2020 before slumping the final month of the season. He needs to prove he can remain consistent, but the stolen base and run potential out of the leadoff spot and home park playing time warrant a spot in your starting lineup. 12-team Mixed: $18; 15-team Mixed: $33; 12-team NL: Rostered

Zach McKinstry, Dodgers: McKinstry burst on the scene a few years ago with a strong minor-league season. He carried that forward into a good spring last year and earned a cup of coffee with the parent club. McKinstry broke camp with the Dodgers and has received consistent playing time due to a variety of injuries along with his solid performance at the plate. Even when LA finally gets healthy, look for him to see semi-consistent playing time. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team NL: $11

Jose Peraza/Jace Peterson: The Mets and Brewers called up backup middle infielders this week. Peraza was added to the 40-man roster to serve as infield depth after J.D. Davis (hand) was placed on the 10-day injured list. Peraza hit .130 with two RBI in 17 preseason games this year and failed to earn a roster spot. Peterson served as a non-roster invitee this spring, but aggravated a thumb injury late in camp. While he spent the start of the regular season recovering, he'll join the major-league roster after Kolten Wong (oblique) was placed on the 10-day injured list Saturday. Peterson, who slashed .200/.393/.356 with two home runs and five RBI in 30 games with the Brewers in 2020, started at second base Saturday although Daniel Robertson should see increased playing time at the keystone. Peraza - 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team-NL: $3; Peterson - 12-team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team-NL: $5 

Brendan Rodgers, Rockies: Rodgers, who suffered a right hamstring strain in mid-March, is progressing faster than expected and did light running, batting practice and fielding Saturday. Manager Bud Black said Rodgers is getting close to a return, but declined to give a specific timetable for the second baseman to make his season debut. In his absence, Ryan McMahon has manned the position, but could switch to third base and displace Josh Fuentes when Rodgers returns. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team NL: $7 (early spec return bid) 

THIRD BASE

Eduardo Escobar, Diamondbacks: Escobar's slow start may have resulted in him joining the waiver list in many leagues. He entered Thursday's contest game hitting .048 (1-21) with eight strikeouts through his first five games. That performance came off a nightmarish 2020 where he hit .212 with just four dingers after blasting 35 and driving in 118 the prior season. If there was a silver lining, Escobar's advanced stats weren't quite as bad as his numbered showed although down from the prior year. From Thursday to Saturday, Escobar went 5-for-11 with three home runs and six runs driven in to show he's not quite done yet. Saturday was his seventh game played at second base, so he should qualify at the position in many leagues by mid-week to add to his value. 12-team Mixed: $15; 15-team Mixed: $25; 12-team-NL: Rostered (bid based on second base eligibility)

SHORTSTOP

Nick Ahmed, Diamondbacks: Ahmed was activated Saturday after being sidelined since late in the spring with right knee inflammation that forced him to miss the start of the regular season. Formerly known as a glove-only shortstop. Ahmed broke through at the plate in 2018 and built off that success the following season. Last year, the 31-year-old slashed .266/.327/.402 with five home runs, 29 RBI and four stolen bases in 57 games and should serve as the everyday shortstop for Arizona going forward. 12-team Mixed: $6; 15-team Mixed: $12; 12-team-NL: Rostered 

Ha-Seong Kim, Padres: Kim, a star in the KBO, joined the Padres this offseason after hitting .306 with 30 home runs and 23 steals in Korea last year. He entered the campaign without a starting role as Jake Cronenworth retained his starting spot. Fernando Tatis landed on the injured list due to a partially dislocated shoulder, resulting in Kim starting at shortstop. Tatis could return from the 10-day injured list as early as next week, meaning that Kim's hold on the job is short-term at best - although he did blast his first MLB homer Saturday. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team-NL: $7 

Alan Trejo, Rockies: Trejo joined the Rockies for the first time after Chris Owings (thumb) was placed on the 10-day injured list. The 24-year-old will serve as infield depth with Owings and Brendan Rodgers (hamstring) sidelined. Trejo spent the 2019 campaign with Double-A Hartford and slashed .243/.290/.391 with 15 home runs, 49 RBI and five stolen bases across 125 games. 12-team Mixed: No; 15-team Mixed: No; 12-team-NL: $3

Jonathan Villar, Mets: J.D. Davis was hit by a pitch Apr. 7 and landed on the IL Saturday. Villar, coming off a brutal 2020 in both Miami and Toronto, signed with the Mets in February. He is filling at third with Davis out while also seeing time at second base. When Davis is back, Villar will resume his role as super-utility player with stolen base potential off the bench. 12-team Mixed: $1; 15-team Mixed: $4; 12-team-NL: $7 (stolen base potential) 

OUTFIELD

Kole Calhoun, Diamondbacks: Calhoun, who underwent surgery to repair a meniscus tear in early March, replaced Ketel Marte on the D-Backs' active roster. After spending his whole career in Anaheim, Calhoun joined Arizona and benefitted from the livelier baseball with only six hitters in baseball producing more homers than Calhoun's 16 last season. He started in right field and batted second while driving in a pair of runs Friday and should be in the lineup almost daily. 12-team Mixed: $18; 15-team Mixed: $28; 12-team-NL: $33 (though likely rostered)

Austin Dean, Cardinals: Dean replaced Tyler O'Neill - who left the game with right groin tightness - and blasted his first home run of the season Saturday. He showed a nice little combination of bat-to-ball, pop and patience at Triple-A in the Marlins organization in 2019, although he was old for the level and has been unable to translate that performance to the major leagues. If O'Neill is sidelined, Dean should see an uptick of playing time especially with Harrison Bader out a few more weeks with strained forearm. 12-team Mixed: $0; 15-team Mixed: $1; 12-team-NL: $5

Tim Locastro, Diamondbacks: Locastro broke Tim Raines' major-league record for the most consecutive successful steals to begin a career (28-for-28) with his swipe Saturday. Ketel Marte's hamstring injury created a huge hole in center field for Arizona, which is being ably filled so far by Locastro. If he can keep his OBA up, he should be able to see consistent playing time – both in the outfield and infield – even when Marte returns from the injured list. 12-team Mixed: $2; 15-team Mixed: $7; 12-team-NL: $11 (based on steals possibility)

Tyler Naquin, Reds: Our preseason outlook said all you needed to know about Naquin's career through 2019: "Naquin came to the big leagues with aplomb with an impressive rookie season, showing an ability to hit for average and power, albeit with an excessive strikeout rate. It has all been mostly downhill from there with injury and ineffectiveness save a decent run of platoon production in 2019." Shogo Akiyama's hamstring injury allowed Naquin to break camp while Jesse Winker's illness opened the door for him to see more playing time and all he has done is bust the door down. He already has five longballs, surpassing the four homers he hit across 40 contests in 2020. As long as Naquin remains hot - though regression will eventually set in - the Reds will have no choice but to pencil his name in the lineup almost daily. 12-team Mixed: $9, 15-team Mixed: $18; 12-team NL: $27

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jan Levine
Levine covers baseball and hockey for RotoWire. He is responsible for the weekly NL FAAB column for baseball and the Barometer for hockey. In addition to his column writing, he is master of the NHL cheat sheets. In his spare time, he roots for the Mets and Rangers.
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