Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

We recently passed Valentine's Day, so now is the perfect time to discuss those three little words that can mean so much when said to the right person.

Pitchers and catchers.

Not what you were expecting?  Don't worry, there are plenty of players for whom I will profess my love. 

The truncated season in 2020 left fewer players exhausting their rookie status, so we will hit on some players prior to the beginning of the season who are still featured on prospect lists yet may have already made their MLB debuts.

This article will operate as it has in the past; each week we will analyze several phenoms helping or hurting their causes.  It will be skewed more toward players closer to the big leagues, but that doesn't mean we won't highlight some neophytes at the lower levels who are making waves either.  This is not a ranking of prospects.  Each week's article is not supposed to be exhaustive in any fashion.  Fantasy impact will also be weighed more heavily over real-life impact.

As you may or may not know, the minor league structure has changed.  I won't comment on the decision, but 40 affiliates were dropped.  The New York-Penn League started in 1939; it doesn't exist anymore.  On the bright side, there is a new team called the Trash Pandas.  Each team has four affiliates now; one each at Triple-A, Double-A, High-A and Low-A.  It will be interesting to see how player allocation decisions are made, on a team-by-team basis.  It may take some time to acquaint yourself with some of the new affiliates and geographic locations.

In the first edition of the 2021 Minor League Barometer, let's focus on some players who will either make the Opening Day rosters for their respective squads, or certainly make their way to the majors later this season.  Don't worry, there's plenty of time before the regular season for me to get to your favorite team or prospect.  Patience, young grasshopper.

UPGRADE

Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, PIT – Hayes has a few factors working to his advantage.  The Pirates are going to be terrible this year.  While that isn't pleasant to hear, the reality is that Pittsburgh will give Hayes all the at-bats he can handle.  He slotted into the No. 2 hole late last season and raked in 24 games for the Pirates.  Hayes slashed .376/.442/.682 with five home runs and 11 RBIs in 85 at-bats.  Since Hayes is an exceptional fielder, he should have no trouble staying on the field for the Pirates.  His power came around in September, too, a truly welcome sign for a player who hit just 25 home runs in more than 450 games in the minors.  Make no mistake about it, though; Hayes will hit enough home runs to be more than relevant at third base.  I always am reminded of Francisco Lindor's minor league resume.  While I do not think Hayes will be quite the caliber of player Lindor is, Lindor did not hit for much power in the minors either — 23 home runs in 419 minor league games.  His season high in the minors was 11 home runs.  Lindor then hit 15 home runs in his first full season with the Indians, then followed that with three consecutive seasons of at least 32 home runs.  Again, I'm not comparing the two skill sets necessarily, only illustrating that Hayes can be more than capable of knocking the ball out of the ballpark even without success at accomplishing the same in the minors.  At 24, Hayes is polished, experienced and ready for his close up.  With the ability to steal double-digit bags as well, Hayes should be among the top impact fantasy prospects in 2021.

Alex Kirilloff, OF, MIN – It's no secret that I've been hard on the young Kirilloff, who is not the greatest fielder and struggled with injuries early during his brief professional career.  He appears ready to blossom, though, as the Twins rather surprisingly let Eddie Rosario walk and instead will give Kirilloff every chance to start in left field to begin the 2021 campaign.  Kirilloff was supposedly a hitting machine at the alternate site in 2020; he also became the first player in MLB history to get his first career hit in the playoffs.  Kirilloff's hit tool is his calling card.  Minnesota also figures home runs will come around as well if the 23-year-old hits as they expect.  With every day at-bats and a lot of protection in the lineup, Kirilloff should hit the ground running for the Twinkies.

Andrew Vaughn, DH/1B, CHW – The White Sox have not been shy about promoting their prospects aggressively, and Vaughn looks to be following in the footsteps of Luis Robert and Eloy Jimenez.  Vaughn has played in just 55 minor league games, but impressed during summer camp in the "lost" campaign of 2020, and the White Sox have an opening at DH.  Vaughn's plate discipline is what separates him, as the slugger has a keen eye at the dish and is not afraid to take a walk.  Although he has not played above High-A, he is a polished collegian from Cal who will be 23 by the time the season starts.  With several high-impact bats in the lineup, the White Sox can afford to give Vaughn an opportunity at DH.  The White Sox led the American League in home runs and slugging in 2020, while placing second in OPS.  Vaughn figures to get a shot to aid those numbers.

Ian Anderson, P, ATL – I never really understood why Anderson did not receive more publicity.  Sure, he's always been a top-100 prospect in baseball since he was drafted, but the Braves always talked up other prospects.  "Sean Newcomb is a strikeout machine, Kolby Allard is the next great southpaw, Kyle Wright is much more MLB-ready, this will be the year for Lucas Sims."  Sure, they hit on Max Fried in the Justin Upton trade, and Mike Soroka looked like a burgeoning star prior to his Achilles injury.  But the other names haven't, or didn't, work out.  Meanwhile, Anderson quietly mowed down the competition.  He never posted a season ERA higher than 3.50 in the minors, and he averaged far more than a strikeout per inning and held opposing batters to a .214 BAA.  He could stand to walk fewer batters, but the issue never plagued him like it did the aforementioned Newcomb.  Then in six starts for the big club in 2020, Anderson shined.  He notched a 1.95 ERA and 41:14 K:BB in 32.1 innings.  He's gone from a luxury to a vital portion of the Braves rotation heading into the 2021 campaign, especially with Soroka likely to begin the year on the injured list.

CHECK STATUS

Nate Pearson, P, TOR – Pearson has an electric arm, and if he can stay healthy, there is little doubt he would find elite success on the mound.  That has proven to be a big "if," though, as unfairly or not, he has been unable to stay on the mound with consistency.  The 24-year-old has pitched just 141.1 innings as a professional since being drafted in 2017.  By way of comparison, 21-year-old MacKenzie Gore has hurled 183 innings since being taken in the same draft and  25-year-old Kyle Wright, also selected from the same draft, has pitched more than 300 innings.  The Jays added even more firepower to their offense in the offseason, but starting pitching remains their biggest weakness, with the signing of Robbie Ray and the trade for Steven Matz hardly viewed as game changers.  As a result, Pearson will get every chance to prove he can stay healthy entering the 2021 campaign, sliding in behind Hyun Jin Ryu.

Dane Dunning, P, TEX – You know the teams that have done well developing pitching prospects?  Well, the Rangers are not one of them.  They'll take their shot with Dunning in 2021, though, who was actually a White Sox farmhand who was acquired in the Lance Lynn deal.  He lost all 2019 due to Tommy John but performed well for the ChiSox in 2020.  In seven starts, Dunning had a 3.97 ERA and 35:13 K:BB.  Dunning isn't a flamethrower but pounds the strike zone and still managed more than one strikeout per inning during his minor league career.  The Rangers are betting big on Dunning, 26, who has the frame to withstand the rigors of the starting rotation.

Ha-seong Kim, 2B, SD – The Padres and Dodgers engaged in something of an arms race during the offseason, with the Padres in particular going the extra mile to beef up their squad to make a run at the defending champs.  While the deals for Yu Darvish and Blake Snell grabbed the headlines, the Padres also gained the services of Kim, a 25-year-old Korean superstar who will shift from shortstop to second base (most likely).  While Jake Cronenworth had a fine rookie season, it seems unlikely the Padres would spend $28 million on Kim to have him ride the pine.  Kim has excellent plate discipline, hit 30 home runs last year in the KBO while stealing 23 bases.  He's shown remarkable consistency during his last six years, making it all the more likely that he has the chops to make an impact for the Padres.  That said, the transition to the MLB can be brutal, and an adjustment period is likely.  Nevertheless, Kim has the chance to really pop.

Tarik Skubal, P, DET – Long term, I like Casey Mize and Matt Manning more.  However, with the Tigers in full rebuilding mode, there is absolutely no reason to push them.  Meanwhile, Skubal already made several starts in the big leagues, is the oldest of the trio and is also a southpaw.  He also had much less of a pedigree coming out of Seattle University, so there is less of a penchant to handle him with kid gloves.  Skubal has massive strikeout potential; he fanned 179 batters in just 122.2 innings in the minors in 2019.  Skubal allowed too many home runs in 2020 en route to a 5.63 ERA in eight outings in 2020, but the peripheral stats were promising.  The 24-year-old fanned 37 batters in 32 innings, walking just 11.  If you take an even closer look at his numbers, he basically had two rough outings.  He allowed four earned runs in his MLB debut and six earned runs versus the Cardinals in September.  Otherwise, Skubal allowed two runs or fewer in his other six outings.  The current Detroit rotation looks like a ragtag collection of has-beens and afterthoughts, so Skubal will have an excellent chance of starting out of the gate.

DOWNGRADE

Luis Patino, P, TB – We have seen the Rays aversion to starting pitchers.  Let me rephrase.  It has been well documented that the Rays do not let their starters go deep into games.  Patino's inclusion here actually has less to do with skills and more to do with situation.  Patino pitched out of the bullpen for the Padres last season, but he will start for the Rays after being the key piece in the Blake Snell deal.  Patino has never pitched more than 94.2 innings in a single season, though, only furthering the notion that he will not be tasked with pitching deep into games.  While the back end of the Rays rotation looks pretty shaky, they will almost certainly use openers, or only ask their starters to pitch three or four innings at a time.  Add in that Patino is unlikely to begin the season in the big-league rotation, and expectations should be tempered.

Bobby Dalbec, 1B, BOS – Just because a player is going to get at-bats, does not necessarily mean he is going to be successful.  Sure, opportunity is a hallmark of prospecting; who has a clear path, who is blocked, etc.  But the player also needs to seize that opportunity with production.  Only time will tell if Dalbec is the answer at first base for the Red Sox, but he has a few things working against him.  First, he is a third baseman by trade but is blocked by Rafael Devers.  Boston has a gaping hole at first, though, so Dalbec likely will get first crack at that starting job.  The 25-year-old masher hit eight home runs in 23 games for Boston down the stretch in 2020, though also struck out 39 times in that span.  Dalbec is essentially a three-outcome hitter; he walked, homered or struck out more than 63 percent of his plate appearances for the Red Sox.  Strikeouts have been a consistent theme for Dalbec, and he hasn't hit higher than .263 at any level since 2017.  Playing home games at Fenway should help, as in an ideal world he could pepper the Green Monster with lasers or simply carry the ball straight over.  His hit tool may not be quite polished enough to make him anything more than a platoon hitter, though.  In addition, he could just be a placeholder for Triston Casas, a more highly touted prospect who plays the same position.

Nolan Gorman, 3B, STL – And just like that, I'm going to (partially) contradict myself.  Gorman is a case of being completely blocked at the big-league level, thereby hampering his ability to see consistent, every day at-bats with the big club.  Sure, the National league may end up with the DH when all is said and done, and the Cards have also said they want Gorman to get reps at second base as well as in the outfield.  But the Cardinals pulled off a huge deal to get Nolan Arenado from the Rockies, and if all goes according to plan, Arenado will not use his opt outs and be the Cardinals starting third baseman for the better part of the next decade.  That leaves the powerful Gorman in flux.  Add in that he strikes out a ton, does not draw nearly enough walks and might not hit for average, and Gorman's big-league path suddenly becomes much murkier.  He is still just 20, but there is little doubt that the acquisition of Arenado stunts his growth.

Brandon Marsh, OF, LAA – Marsh has the presence of a power hitter, but he just hasn't been able to access that power yet.  He's also battled injuries during his brief time in the minors.  Marsh is not afraid to take a walk, though, he can swipe a bag when needed and has a solid hit tool.  Unfortunately for him, the Halos have one of the best hitters ever holding down his position for the foreseeable future in Mike Trout, and former top prospect Jo Adell also figures to get his share of playing time in the outfield this year.  The Angels still have Justin Upton, too, and their trade for Dexter Fowler makes it seem all the more likely that they are not planning on having Marsh in the big leagues this season.  And that's without even mentioning Shohei Ohtani and Albert Pujols at DH.  Marsh need to tap into that power, and soon, because his future appears as a corner outfielder or DH if he is ever to play for the Halos at the big-league level.