MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Players might be back in camp, but that doesn't remotely mean that everything has gone back to normal. Scroll through the list of recent news on this website, and you'll see a long list of players testing positive for COVID-19 and players absent from camp, potentially due to COVID-19, interspersed with reports on Masahiro Tanaka's health after he got struck in the head by a Giancarlo Stanton liner. Thankfully, he's been discharged from the hospital and is no longer experiencing concussion symptoms, but altogether it's hardly been the celebratory atmosphere we might have expected with players returning to camp.

Every indication seems to be that this round of negative news and positive tests was to be expected, however, and that the season will forge on with players and teams taking as many precautions as reasonably possible to remain as safe as they can at a time in which nothing is fundamentally safe in this country. And as long as there's an MLB season, there will be an MLB Barometer.

I love sports in large part due to their ability to help us escape the concerns of the rest of the world, but that's unfortunately not going to be possible for the next few months, as leagues attempt to return mid-pandemic rather than effectively post-pandemic as has been the case elsewhere in the world. An uncomfortably large number of risers and fallers this week and presumably for quite some time will be coronavirus-related, because that's unfortunately what the majority of news has been about lately. It doesn't feel great to write about a player "benefitting" from his teammate testing positive for the virus, but I suppose that's not too dissimilar from discussing who benefits from a player undergoing Tommy John surgery or suffering a serious knee injury.

Properly assessing the COVID-related fallout isn't the most pleasant way to gain an advantage over your fellow fantasy owners, but it's the opportunity that will present itself to us most frequently the next couple weeks. This will (hopefully) be the strangest draft season and fantasy season of our lifetimes, and unpredictable virus-related changes to depth charts will just be one portion of a large number of unexpected changes to players' values. Rankings and predictions are likely to be less accurate than ever due both to those factors and the randomness that comes with a 60-game schedule, but I'll do my best to keep up with the most significant changes in value in this column.

RISERS

Aaron Judge, OF, Yankees: While the delayed season allowed several players to recover from injuries without missing any time, it wasn't initially clear whether Judge would be part of that group. His recovery from a fractured right rib didn't seem to be progressing too quickly for most of the spring. Reports over the last week have been far more optimistic, however, and it now sounds as though the team expects Judge to be ready to play on Opening Day. He's been able to face live pitching in recent days and is reportedly swinging pain-free. While it's still not quite guaranteed that he'll avoid missing any time, he certainly seems to have far more optimistic outlook than he had just a week or two ago.

Yoenis Cespedes, OF, Mets: Cespedes had seemed like a riser for several months, as he benefited from the delayed season in multiple ways: the late start bought him extra time for his right ankle to heal from multiple fractures suffered in an incident with a wild boar last May, while the introduction of the universal designated hitter provided him with a place to play even if he wasn't yet fully healthy. That logic was contingent on him looking good when he arrived at camp, of course, but reports have been quite positive in that regard over the last week. Cespedes has been able to reach sprint speed during workouts and played an inning in left field during a simulated game. While he's reportedly still not quite up to full speed, the odds look pretty good that he'll be able to play a significant role from the start of the year.

Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies: Hilliard's .273/.356/.649 slash line with seven homers in a brief 27-game sample last season got many fantasy owners quite excited about his potential. His path to playing time in a crowded Rockies outfield was initially unclear, however. That group has thinned out over the last week, though, with Ian Desmond electing to sit out the season and with Charlie Blackmon still yet to report to camp due to his positive coronavirus test. Hilliard still doesn't have a clear hold on a starting job, as he's competing with Raimel Tapia and potentially new signing Matt Kemp, while Garrett Hampson could also spend some time in the outfield. Still, he path looks much easier than it did just a week ago, giving him a greater chance to make good on the big upside that comes with a regular role in Coors Field.

Carter Kieboom, SS, Nationals: Kieboom certainly didn't impress in his 11-game MLB debut last year, hitting .128/.209/.282. The Nationals apparently have faith in his prospect pedigree, however, as he's been named the team's starting third baseman despite his complete lack of an MLB track record. The 22-year-old hit a solid .303/.409/.493 with 16 homers in 109 games for Triple-A Fresno last season and projects for above-average contact and power when fully developed. How close he gets to that level this year remains to be seen, and the Nationals do have Asdrubal Cabrera ready to take over if he falters, but the news is undoubtedly still a boost to Kieboom's value.

Alec Mills, SP, Cubs: Mills has a clear path to the Cubs' fifth starter job at the start of the season, as Jose Quintana required thumb surgery after injuring himself while washing dishes. It's not clear exactly how much time Quintana will miss, but he's expected to be shut down from throwing for at least two weeks, which should give Mills time to make at least a handful of starts. The 28-year-old has thrown just 57.1 career MLB innings, but he looked good in 36 frames as a swingman last year. It took an unsustainable 90.5 percent strand rate to get him to his 2.75 ERA, but his combination of a 27.6 percent strikeout rate and a 7.2 percent walk rate was quite respectable. He's an interesting late-round target, especially as it's not out of the question for him to outpitch Tyler Chatwood and hold onto a rotation spot even after Quintana returns.

Carlos Rodon, SP, White Sox: The delayed start had long seemed like a positive for players like Rodon, who underwent Tommy John surgery in May 2019. He would have been forced to miss a large portion of the year during a normal season, but it looks like he might not wind up missing any time due to the delay. He reportedly feels as though he's close to 100 percent healthy and threw a 45-pitch live batting practice session Sunday. It's unclear if he'll have a rotation spot right away, but there's a good chance he makes a fair number of starts this season at some point. The 27-year-old southpaw had been generating some excitement prior to undergoing surgery last year, as his career-high 5.19 ERA through seven starts came with a career-high 29.1 percent strikeout rate. There's certainly some upside as a late-round flyer.

FALLERS

Mike Trout, OF, Angels: You know things are strange when Trout is listed as the top faller two weeks in a row. Trout was listed here last week as he'd fallen from second to third in our latest Roundtable Rankings, due in part to the uncertainty surrounding how much time he'd miss in August, when his wife is due to give birth to the couple's first child. It now appears that our previous assessment underestimated the risk surrounding him, as he said Friday that he hasn't even fully decided to play this season. If he tests positive for the virus within two weeks of his child's birth, he wouldn't be able to be present for the event, so it's possible he plays for a bit and then heads home to be with his wife for a few weeks. That's purely speculation, but the speculation is the point, as we simply don't know with any level of confidence how many games he'll play. Expect him to plummet down draft boards as owners won't want to take that sort of risk in the first round, though that, of course, brings with it the potential for a massive profit if Trout does wind up missing nothing more than a small handful of games.

Zack Wheeler, SP, Phillies: Wheeler's situation is similar to Trout's, as he's expected to miss time when his wife gives birth early in the season. She's due with the couple's first child right around Opening Day, which Wheeler expects will cost him at least two starts, considering the intake process required to return to the team. He could wind up missing the entire season, however, as he's reportedly considering opting out and remaining with his wife and newborn baby rather than getting back on the field. If he does indeed elect to go that route, Spencer Howard could be forced into a rotation role right away, though the Phillies may simply elect to give spots to both Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta, neither of whom has been particularly convincing thus far in their careers.

David Price, SP, Dodgers: Price can be taken off all draft boards after he announced his decision to opt out of the upcoming season. His inclusion in the offseason blockbuster that sent Mookie Betts from Boston to Los Angeles was in large part a salary dump, though the Dodgers  likely still were expecting to get a decent performance from the veteran lefty, whose unimpressive 4.28 ERA in 22 starts last season came with a solid 3.62 FIP. In his absence, Dustin May, Ross Stripling and Tony Gonsolin all see their values rise, but it's not yet clear who has the lead in the battle for the team's final rotation spot.

Freddie Freeman, 1B, Braves: Freeman is listed here as a stand-in for the long list of players whose positive COVID-19 test results have been made public, a group far too numerous to list out individually in this column. It's going to be rather difficult to assess exactly how we should adjust our expectations for all of these players, especially as the details of each situation are generally being closely safeguarded due to privacy concerns. Some players could simply see their preseason preparation slightly delayed, while others may feel the lasting impact of the virus for a considerably longer period. In Freeman's specific case, manager Briant Snitker said that it's "going to be a while" before the first baseman is able to report to camp, so some lost time at the start of the season appears fairly likely. Adam Duvall could potentially move in from left field to first base in his absence.