AL FAAB Factor: Early July Update

Normally on Sundays, I'd be writing and posting the AL FAAB article, highlighting and analyzing players who are worth picking up (or occasionally, trying to talk you out of throwing too much of your budget at a player likely to draw high bids). However, with the MLB season getting a very delayed start, we're probably still a week or two away from even the leagues that drafted back in March holding any FAAB or waiver periods.

That doesn't mean, however, that there aren't players and roster situations worth discussing in the meantime. Each week until the season is finally ready to begin, we'll take a look at players gaining or losing value, to prepare you for that eventual first FAAB period.

Starting Pitcher

Bryan Abreu / Austin Pruitt / Framber Valdez, Astros: With teams back in camp and real news about players doing real baseball things coming down the pipe again, it's important to remember not to overreact to things like early absences. Nonetheless, both Jose Urquidy and Josh James have yet to report for undisclosed reasons, and if both end up being unavailable for 2020, Houston's pitching depth could be tested. Abreu, Pruitt and Valdez are considered the most obvious options to step in to any vacancy (or work as long relievers/swing men/sixth starters), but Pruitt has experience in a variety of roles from his time in Tampa and is probably not the best fit for a regular starting spot. Valdez has had flashes of success in the majors, but his command and control may not be good enough for consistent work, while Abreu's success in short relief last year and lack of a third pitch suggests that's probably where his future lies. The other name to keep in mind if the Astros' rotation depth gets tested, of course, is Forrest Whitley. If he impresses the coaching staff while working with the B-team as part of the 60-man player pool, his time could come in 2020.

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland: Given the additional risk he carries due to a compromised immune system, there was no guarantee Carrasco was going to opt to play this season, but the right-hander apparently wants to make up for a lost 2019. Not only is he in camp, the 33-year-old is in good enough shape that he says he could handle going six innings right now if he had to. With Corey Kluber now a Ranger, Cleveland could use a return to form for Carrasco, and if he's firing on all cylinders from the jump he could prove to be a bargain.

Lance McCullers, Astros: McCullers didn't pitch at all in 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, but the delayed start to the season means he shouldn't be under any kind of restrictions when play finally begins – an important thing to keep in mind for a pitcher who hasn't tossed more than 130 innings in a season since 2015. McCullers has ace-level stuff, but he's never quite been able to put it all together due to somewhat erratic command and control, and that's a profile that makes him especially risky his first year back from surgery. I'd still have no problem targeting him in keeper or dynasty formats, but don't get sucked into a bidding war for him in redraft expecting him to be the next Gerrit Cole.

Jesus Luzardo / A.J. Puk, Athletics: Two guys who could be worth getting into a bidding war over in redraft are Oakland's two young potential studs. Neither Luzardo nor Puk are expected to need any kind of restriction on their workload during the shortened campaign, and both offer significant (if still unproven) upside. Luzardo in particular could win some mixed leagues if he can deliver elite ratios at a less than elite price.

Ryan Weber, Red Sox: Looking deeper into the player pool, Weber is all but guaranteed a rotation spot for the Red Sox. The 29-year-old was outstanding during Grapefruit League action in March, posting an 11:0 K:BB in nine innings, but his biggest asset on the mound is generating weak contact on groundballs, not strikeouts. In AL-only, he could be a source of cheap, useful innings.

Relief Pitcher

Jose Alvarado, Rays: Alvarado struggled through a rough 2019 campaign both on and off the field, but he appears ready to put it behind him. He maintained his focus and routines during the shutdown, and appeared to be one of the most season-ready arms on the first day in camp, pounding the strike zone with his filthy stuff. Nick Anderson remains the primary target for most people in the Tampa bullpen, but if Alvarado returns to his 2018 form, the southpaw will feature heavily in the high-leverage mix for manager Kevin Cash.

Rafael Montero, Rangers: The fact that Jose Leclerc had trouble keeping his mechanics together on the first day of summer camp may not be surprising, but it should be at least a bit concerning. He already lost the closer job once last year, and in a compacted 2020 season his leash could be very short. Montero is considered the next man up after a huge second half in 2019 got his career back on track, but he has yet to report to camp as he deals with an unspecified family situation back in the Dominican Republic. If Leclerc falters and for whatever reason Montero can't step in, the other possible closer candidates in the Texas 'pen include Cody Allen, who has plenty of experience in the role but declining stuff, and young flamethrower Jonathan Hernandez.

Catcher

Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers: IKF was expected to b e a utility player this season, a useful enough for fantasy purposes given that he still qualifies at catcher, but now there's talk he might win the starting third base job outright over Todd Frazier after he tore it up in the Cactus League. Big spring hitting numbers should be taken with extra grains of salt when they happen in Arizona, but it's not like Frazier is an insurmountable obstacle, either. If Kiner-Falefa does wind up starting and has figured out how to make some semi-consistent hard contact, he'll be a must-add in any league that uses two active catcher spots.

First Base

Spencer Torkelson, Tigers: Unlike the elite outfield prospects listed below, I'd put the chances of Torkelson making his big-league debut in 2020 at somewhere around non-zero. However, this will be a kooky campaign, and this year's first overall pick has some incredibly loud tools. If somehow the Tigers are in playoff contention, and that success isn't because Miguel Cabrera turned back the clock and C.J. Cron was raking, there could be a window for Detroit to say, "Ah, to heck with service time" and add him to the roster for the stretch run. In redrafts leagues with deep benches, Torkelson's upside might just make him worth stashing.

Second Base

Shed Long, Mariners: Seattle is committed to giving the 24-year-old a Long look this year... sorry, sorry, I'm trying to delete it. Even with Dee Gordon still on the roster, Long will be the starter at the keystone after a solid 2019 debut. I'm still skeptical about his true upside, but he did hit 15 homers across three levels last year and swiped 19 bags in 2018 at Double-A, so he could make an impact. In a short sprint of a season like this, all you need is a couple of relatively unheralded guys to get hot, and Long's multi-category skill set is certainly intriguing.

Vimael Machin, Athletics: With Jorge Mateo sent packing to the Padres, Machin's roster spot seems secure even after teams have pared down from 30 players to 26. Franklin Barreto and Tony Kemp are still the favorites to get most of the playing time at second base, but Machin's status as a Rule 5 pick should ensure he's on the bench behind them waiting for a chance.

Outfield

Jo Adell, Angels: OK, here's where speculating about possible 2020 scenarios can get fun. Adell wasn't necessarily expected to make any kind of splash this season with Brian Goodwin holding down the fort in right field, but now there's suddenly a possibility that Mike Trout could leave the team in August for the birth of his first child and simply not come back, or maybe even just opt out of the campaign entirely. In the event the Angels are Trout-less but still harboring playoff aspirations, Adell is the most logical candidate to plug into the lineup. The 21-year-old may not be ready for the majors, of course, but his upside is legit and he did post strong numbers at Double-A in 2019. If you have room on your bench for a stash with a sky-high ceiling, Adell might be your best target.

Jake Fraley / Kyle Lewis, Mariners: Mitch Haniger is now back on the IL and could be headed for another lost season, which all but locks Fraley and Lewis into the starting corner outfield spots. The 25-year-old Fraley struggled in his big-league debut but posted strong numbers in the upper minors last year, and his 19 homers and 22 steals in only 99 games between Double-A and Triple-A looks very juicy. Lewis' strikeouts are a major red flag, but his power potential shouldn't be overlooked if he figures out how to make semi-consistent contact. The M's have better prospects in the system behind them (see below), but the duo should still get a chance to establish themselves as regulars before they face real competition.

Clint Frazier / Mike Tauchman, Yankees: The layoff has given the Yankees' big bats, like Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge, a chance to heal up, so Frazier and Tauchman will both likely wind up on the bench to start the campaign. The team seems intent on keeping guys as healthy as possible though, and when you have quality depth during a compacted schedule, you should probably use it. Frazier and Tauchman will likely be ignored in shallower mixed formats, but in deeper leagues they could easily get more playing time, and thus have more value, than expected.

Jarred Kelenic, Mariners: So, here's the other scenario that could be exciting. Between its reasonable pitching depth and Tampa-like stash of utility players, Seattle is actually set up pretty well for the shortened season. Kelenic, meanwhile, apparently used the break to become ripped, and he's one of a handful of elite prospects who could so impress during workouts that he forces his way onto the big-league roster at some point, regardless of the initial plans for him. Think about the way Juan Soto rocketed through the Nats' system two years ago – a prospect at a similar stage of their development won't be able to prove themselves in minor-league games in 2020, but the major-league coaching staff will be getting a much better look at them. The team won't want to waste a year of his service time, but if the M's are somehow competitive and Kelenic seems ready, there really isn't anyone in the team's outfield right now that should be seen as a big obstacle for him to overcome.

Designated Hitter

Nick Solak, Rangers: In addition to toying with the idea of Kiner-Falefa at third base, the Rangers are going to give Solak a look at first base during summer camp. There's a lot of moving pieces on this roster defensively, but finding a consistent home for the 25-year-old would help lock everything into place, as well as improving his playing-time outlook. Texas will want to give Solak as many reps as they can when games start to count, but that's easier to do if he shows he can handle at least one real position adequately, rather than being stuck at DH. His dynasty value would also get a small bump if he's able to qualify at a real position for 2021 as well.