Mound Musings: A Staff Awaiting Action

Readers often ask about my own pitching staffs in the various fantasy leagues in which I compete. Unfortunately, this staff is the only one completed so far as my other drafts were delayed. Hopefully I'll be filling out the others very soon. So, I thought I might take this opportunity to discuss the pitching staff I will go to war with in this 16-team dynasty league. I will add that I typically focus very heavily on a few arms, so many of these guys might pitch on several of my teams by the time the season begins

A little background:

With 16 teams, it is a mixed league keeper/dynasty with deep rosters (41 players per team including 10 minor league slots). Standard scoring categories, five hitting and five pitching, with a lineup consisting of 14 hitters and nine pitchers. We have protections prior to the auction each season, the auction fills the remainder of the starting lineup, followed by a draft (no initial contract price) of unpurchased players as reserves and minor leaguers. Minor league players can be protected indefinitely until they exceed a minimum number of appearances at the major league level.

I could probably say this almost every season regarding almost every fantasy pitching staff I own, but I really am cautiously optimistic about this one. Interestingly, there aren't any true marquee names. However, I do feel there is a ton of potential value. In almost every case, I see realistic opportunity for the pitcher to outperform his price tag. Overall I have $90 of my $260 salary (35 percent) invested in pitching, which is actually slightly lower than normal for me. Hopefully they will return a nice dividend – assuming they get the chance this year. See my commentary about the resumption of play below.

So, let's look at my pitching staff, and discuss my thoughts on who and why:

• SP1 Patrick Corbin ($16) He has been a part of this rotation (and most all of my other teams) for several years, and he has now claimed the "staff ace" title. The 30-year-old southpaw is in the prime of his career, and while he isn't typically regarded as a top rier fantasy arm, his numbers suggest he should be close. He has one of the most devastating sliders in the game, which is both good and a little scary, but his elbow was rebuilt in 2014 so hopefully there are a lot of miles left on his arm. You'll know he's on his game when he buries biting the pitch just above the back foot of right-handed batters leading to huge strikeout totals. Having a staff leader at his price tag is a true luxury.
• SP2 Mike Soroka ($3) – A somewhat lower strikeout rate is the only thing that keeps him a tick behind Corbin. He's not a pure power pitcher so he's not going to ring up overwhelming strikeout totals, but at age 22 he's still finding his way, so I believe his strikeout rate will continue to creep higher. What he does have is pinpoint command of a full arsenal, and the mound savvy to execute the perfect pitch at the ideal time. I invested heavily in him (I own him in every league) before he was a well-known name in fantasy circles, and he has already paid a hefty dividend. If he stays healthy – the shoulder woes before last season did make me a bit nervous – his best is yet to come.
• SP3 Dinelson Lamet ($5) – Okay, I realize naming Lamet as my third starter is ambitiously optimistic to say the least, but his ceiling is actually higher than a three, albeit probably not quite this year. Again he was a "must own" for me long before he hit most fantasy radars, and like Soroka, I own him in every league. However, he is much different. He features an electric fastball/slider combination that can be nearly unhittable, and he is a better changeup and slightly improved command from being a genuine ace. I think those two attributes are coming. I had to be patient when he missed 2018 and the first part of last year recovering from Tommy John surgery, but good things come to those who wait.
• SP4 Miles Mikolas ($14) – When he struggled through a season with nagging injuries that contributed to command inconsistency last year, I thought I might be able to re-acquire Mikolas at a bargain price. I was wrong. I was hoping to get him for about $8 to $10, but other owners apparently saw the same things I saw. Like a Soroka-lite, Mikolas lives on command of his full arsenal, and he just didn't have that every time out last season. Too many pitches up in the zone and out over the plate resulted in more homeruns and fewer groundballs – not a recipe for success. I'm banking on his good health, which could bring something similar to his 2018 peripherals, and that would make him a modest bargain.
• SP5 Masahiro Tanaka ($15) – Having lost my staff leaders Stephen Strasburg (contract expired) and Noah Syndergaard (Tommy John surgery) after last season, I felt I had some young guns moving up the food chain, but I needed a potentially solid starter who could provide innings in the middle of my rotation. Tanaka wasn't my first choice, but he came at a pretty reasonable (hopefully) price, and I do believe he is still capable of better than he showed in 2019. Over the course of a game, every starter misses his spot or hangs an occasional breaking pitch. The lucky ones get a "whew" pop up, while the unlucky ones watch a tape measure three-run homerun sail out of the yard. Tanaka was usually the latter. He's not dominant but he's better than we've seen.
• SP6 Alex Wood ($2) – Now we're getting into pitchers who can make or break a fantasy season. Well, perhaps more accurately, they can either propel your team into contention with a big year or they can simply be the cannon fodder their price tag suggests. Wood has suffered through an injury-plagued career to this point. Last season it was back trouble that derailed him. When right, he's very good, and he has a curveball that is a hitter's worst nightmare, but his mechanics have always limited his consistency. Reports are we'll see new, improved, more efficient mechanics this year, with increased velocity, and hopefully better health. I'm rolling the dice here, but these types of adjustments have been a boon.
• SP7 Kevin Gausman ($2) – Longtime readers know of my affliction known as Gausman. I suppose I am more or less beyond that, but the fact remains, he still has tremendous upside if, and that is admittedly a huge IF, an organization can find the key. I think he has tinkered so much with his mechanics that he may not even remember what worked. Will the Giants unlock the good Gausman? It's hard to say. But, for $2, I guess I'll find out. I have a Plan B so my season is not tethered to his success, but what a windfall he could be if.… Stay tuned.
• RP1 Kenley Jansen ($28) – I probably invested a bit more than I should have in Jansen, but years of exemplary performance on my fantasy teams will convince me to spend a couple more bucks. He's earned it. Jansen has had some physical problems the last couple years. His velocity dipped, and, maybe even more concerning, his bread and butter cutter just hasn't quite had the same bite. There are some who think his best years are now in the past. I'm hoping not. If he returns to form, or even closer to it, he's an elite closer. It still appears to be there in my eyes. Yes, it is a significant risk. Closers can fade quickly.
• RP2 Ian Kennedy ($5) – I was happy to see Kennedy given a shot as a fulltime closer in Kansas City. While they were auditioning candidates, he really looked the part. He's quite capable, but not elite, so there are two major concerns. First, the Royals have a pretty mediocre pitching staff that may not provide a lot of leads to protect, and secondly, if they don't win very many games, Kennedy could be a trading chip in the rebuilding process. If that happens, there is no guarantee he would land in a city with an opening in the ninth inning gig.
• RP3 Zack Britton ($0) – Britton is a former closer who enjoyed relative success in the role. The Yankees have a very deep bullpen, but their regular closer, Aroldis Chapman, isn't the poster child for durability. My staff is usually seven starters and two relievers as opposed to 6/3, so Britton is really more of a flyer for potential saves, or a possible trading chip should he find opportunity knocking.
• RESERVES – these guys could be a SP7 or RP3, or, in some cases, they are simply investments in the future of my franchise – Homer Bailey ($0), Brad Keller ($0), Carlos Rodon ($0) and Jordan Hicks ($0) – Britton actually fits here, too, but Bailey and Keller are the primary insurance policies against injuries to my rotation, which these days is almost inevitable, or the Plan B mentioned above should the Gausman project (or other best laid plans) falter. Bailey is a lot like Gausman actually. He doesn't have the same upside, but he can be a rather competent starter when he has his act together, and I have been watching Keller with some interest for some time. The former Rule-5 pick has modest upside and continues to develop. I'm very high on Hicks and Rodon who are both rehabbing from injuries, making them questionable contributors this year.

The Baseball Return Watch: I still feel fairly certain there will be baseball this year. I just hope it's not a case of unrealistic optimism. It seems the coronavirus is gradually being brought under control, but my biggest concerns now center more on greed – both players and owners – rather than safety. I find it hard to believe people who make more money in one year than the average hard-working person makes in a lifetime will refuse to play/conduct the kid's game we all love for a little bit less than they normally make. C'mon Dorn, get in front of the ball.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• From 2018: My "I should have been more aggressive on draft day" nominee early in 2018 goes to the Cardinals' Jack Flaherty. I loved the raw stuff last year, and I bid on him wherever I could this year, but I didn't get him on a roster. I just wanted to reiterate that thought for drafts yet to be conducted this year.
• I am going to watch the progress of Taijuan Walker in Seattle if things get moving toward a 2020 season. Prior to missing practically all of 2018 and 2019 due to Tommy John surgery, he had a noteworthy electric fastball, but lacked consistency with his secondary stuff. He'll clearly need to step things up.
• The Braves' Mike Foltynewicz recently told reporters he would probably need about two weeks of spring training 2.0 to be fully prepared for a regular season. I think that might be a bit optimistic, but it's good to hear pitchers talking positively regarding a fairly quick return to game action for this year.
• Tampa Bay's Brent Honeywell recently underwent yet another elbow surgery, this one to remove scar tissue. Once considered a decent pitching prospect, he hasn't thrown a pitch in a game since 2017. He may get beyond these elbow injuries, but he has a lot to prove to get himself back on the radar.

Endgame Odyssey:

There remains little to report regarding bullpen roles once baseball returns ,although that could change soon as teams are just now gathering to continue preparation for an anticipated resumption of play. Some teams have already begun workouts on a limited basis, and pitchers could see mound work fairly soon. We are close.