Mound Musings: I Have Faith, Baseball Will Return in 2020

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Published on April 23, 2020

Some of the biggest challenges we face is finding new and useful topics to discuss pertaining to the 2020 baseball season. Easily the No. 1 question I get asked is, when do you think the season will begin? Most of my fellow columnists get the same question, and all of us, unfortunately, have to give the same answer – we really have no idea, but our best guess might be right, but please keep in mind, that is pure speculation. We wish we knew. The MLB brain trust really wishes they knew. But, there are still far too many variables. We'll keep trying, and we'll continue to do all we can to help readers prepare for a season (I do feel strongly that there will be one) that promises many twists and turns. There are so many things to look at, so let's go.

On the mend; stock on the rise: It's unlikely many players would consider this delay to the start of the regular season beneficial by any definition, but there are several pitchers who are heading for an Opening Day on the active roster despite injuries. We don't yet know when the season will commence, but June may be a best-case scenario, and July could be even more realistic, and that is giving some of the pitchers listed below time to get healthy. Not surprisingly, their stock is (and should be) on the rise. Consider these status changes just like you normally would in February and March, moving

Setbacks are always a possibility, but rehab reports suggest most of these pitchers are likely to be fully healthy for a regular season beginning in June or July. We'll get a rust report once preliminary games get underway, but these guys need to be on your list:

Mike Clevinger (Indians, knee, expected return, May) – Clevinger has tagged himself as ready to go after rehabbing following surgery for a partially torn meniscus in February. No contradictions from the club, so we can probably presume he'll be ready when the season begins. He still has big upside.
James Paxton (Yankees, back, expected return, May) – I love everything about Paxton except for his injury history. Back woes tarnished his numbers last season, but his recovery has gone well, and I'll roll the dice (again) hoping for a healthy year. An injury-free season has to be in the cards someday.
Carlos Rodon (White Sox, elbow, expected return, July) – Rodon was expected to miss the first half as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery, returning around the All-Star break. Things have reportedly gone well, so that timeline still looks good, only early July could now be Opening Day instead of the break.
Miles Mikolas (Cardinals, forearm, expected return, May) – He often didn't look quite right over the course of last season, but a forearm injury quite possibly contributed to his apparent mechanical issues. They ruled out surgery (hopefully over the long haul) and he has shown steady progress in his rehab.
Cole Hamels (Braves, shoulder, expected return, May) – Hamels is 36 years old, and the word "shoulder" appears in his current status. That's not a very good combination, but the changes in latitudes angle applies, and he has reportedly been pain-free during his spring throwing program. Hope for no setbacks.
Rich Hill (Twins, elbow, expected return, June) – Hill is a competent starter when he is able to take a turn in the rotation, but he's strictly a bench depth streamer in fantasy circles, having not pitched more than 135 innings in a season since 2007. He could be okay to start the season, but have a Plan B in place.
Michael Fulmer (Tigers, elbow, expected return, July) – I have never been a big Fulmer booster, but he could experience a little bump in performance after he completes his recovery from the Tommy John surgery that cost him the 2019 season. He's throwing off a mound so a July return is a reasonable possibility.
Carlos Carrasco (Indians, elbow, expected return, May) – Carrasco has been teasing fantasy owners for years. Many nagging injuries, most recently elbow inflammation, have led to massive inconsistency. When everything is in sync, he can be dominating, but he's a risk to stumble on any given day it seems.
Griffin Canning (Angels, elbow, expected return, May) – As a modest young prospect, Canning could be useful at the back of a fantasy rotation. He has opted to forego Tommy John surgery, at least for now. He has been throwing and could start mound work at any time now. Keep monitoring his progress.
Michael Kopech (White Sox, elbow, expected return, June) – Unlike Canning, Kopech is pure blue-chip. He's coming back from Tommy John surgery, and all signs point to a smooth recovery. The big question with him is whether the team will bring him up or, if there is a minor league season, continue his development.

Home is where you find your uniform in a locker: Things change, or at least plans change, on a daily basis. Just recently, it was announced baseball could return with all games being played in Arizona and Florida. Just the other day, that prospective plan was altered to possibly include Texas as a play state. Of note, those three states are home to five MLB franchises, all with domed stadiums or stadiums with retractable roofs, deemed important in allowing multiple games to be played there each day without concerns regarding hot summer days or inclement weather cancellations.

Presumably, games would be played in these five stadiums, along with spring training sites, and various minor league parks. Certainly accommodations would be made for television coverage, since the possibility of fans being in the stands is even more up in the air than the actual scheduled date of return. And. Interestingly, while not a direct result of this pandemic event, it looks like the number of minor league clubs will be significantly reduced in coming years. It will coincide with a reduction in rounds for the amateur draft, all with an eye to long term financial stability. The overall impact of these changes on fantasy baseball should be minimal. The best players will always surface.

THIS JUST IN: In what has to be regarded as a huge step forward, reports are the NHL plans to resume play in July. Scant details so far, but games would be played in five or six neutral sites, one from each division. Initially, there would be no fans as they work to complete their 82-game regular season, but they hope fans would again be able to attend as the regular season progresses, or during the playoffs to follow.

Please make sure your response is in the form of a question: I truly enjoy writing the Mound Musings column each week, even during this unprecedented period of wait and see when we play speculation. That said, my greatest enjoyment is interacting with you, the readers. It's difficult – okay, it's virtually impossible – to cover all of the key topics of interest to all the pitching junkies. Therefore, the questions posed by you are an integral part of the column. I certainly don't have all the answers. That wouldn't be any fun, now would it? However, I will always respond, and hopefully the responses will help, or at least breed some ideas to contemplate. So, always remember, you will never be put in "Jeopardy" if you make sure your comments are in the form of a question!

The one thing we know for certain is that unprecedented events will give us a season with no template to follow – assuming the season happens. I think it will, in some yet to be fully determined format. Baseball is our national game. Rotations and bullpens could be in a state of flux all year. We'll just need to be ready to adjust, so go ahead, and ask those questions.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

I recently watched some video of Milwaukee's Josh Lindblom pitching in South Korea, and I have moved him a bit higher on my rankings. Improved command, and better pitch sequencing would seem to prove that an old dog can learn new tricks. I think he could be a pretty good flier in the later rounds of a draft.
Hardcore sinkerball pitchers don't usually rank especially high on my watch list, but the Mariners' Kendall Graveman, like many others following Tommy John surgery, has experienced a significant bump in velocity. There is a chance a livelier fastball could serve as a change-of-pace from his normal sinker.
The Blue Jays' Ryan Borucki probably should have been on the above injured returnees list. He caught my eye back in 2018, not as a future ace, but rather as an often over-looked starter with potential to contribute to a fantasy staff. Injuries have been problematic, but, if healthy (reports are good), he's worth a look.
Here's a dynasty name to watch. The Reds' Hunter Greene – the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 draft – has immense upside. He's also coming back from Tommy John surgery, and hasn't pitched above Low-A ball, so whether there is or is not a minor league season, he won't be in Cincinnati this year.

Endgame Odyssey:

There has been considerable buzz about one Rangers' reliever. Rafael Montero was once a promising prospect, but he fell off the radar after failing to develop command of his repertoire, and then undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2018. He put it all together last year, albeit in a small sample of 29 innings. I still think Jose Leclerc is the first choice for closing duties – he has the physical tools but may still need to prove he has the mindset – but Montero might be a very good insurance policy. And, continuing the theme of injured pitchers progressing in rehab during the shutdown, there are a few relievers who should be closely monitored. Corey Knebel should be ready to pitch for the Brewers when the season begins. Then, both Emmanuel Clase in Cleveland and Austin Adams in Seattle are expected to be ready in June, and both figure to see high-leverage work, including the possibility of saves. The Cardinals' Jordan Hicks won't be back until July, and Reyes Moronta isn't expected back in San Francisco until August, at the earliest, but the delay should still give them time to contribute this season. With improved control, Moronta is probably the Giant's best in-house option to eventually close games.