Rounding Third: Friends & Family Review

Despite the suspension of spring training and the delay to the start of the season, we pressed on with the Yahoo! Friends & Family draft last night. It was actually a welcome diversion on an otherwise dreary day and turned out to be a lot of fun. With the indefinite timetable to the start of the season, and the lack of drafts between MLB's announcement and our draft, we had the added element of the unknown in this draft — it was tantamount to drafting December or January in some ways, at least when handicapping some injuries. 

After spending spring training discounting players who weren't going to be able to play on Opening Day, we had to undo much of that thought process last night. With one notable exception, I personally didn't do much of that, to be honest. I think we're left trying to handicap two (really, three) variables: When do you think the season will start? When will that player be able to return? And finally, will they be able to continue/complete their rehab during this absence, or will their ability to rehab also be compromised? To answer the first question, my (very, extremely rough) estimate is between May 15 and June 1. Others in the room guessed as early as April 15.

Here's a list of noteworthy injured players, their ADP in NFBC since their injuries, and where they went last night. I realize that this isn't a perfect comparison — we are playing with Yahoo's rules, not the NFBC's, but the NFBC has the ability to search ADP by date. One big rule change? We're using only one catcher in this league, not two — so Gary Sanchez's draft slot wasn't (relatively) improved by the time off.

To be honest, I thought I'd see more chances taken in this draft with regards to injuries, and for the gaps to be more dramatic in favor of earlier picks. But that wasn't case. For instance, I expected Chris Sale to go much earlier than the NFBC ADP, but the opposite happened. A few obvious players did go earlier — Justin Verlander, Mike Clevinger and Aaron Judge stand out — there were plenty of counterexamples, too.

As I alluded, there are particular rules that are different than your standard NFBC format in Yahoo! Friends & Family. The most important of these is that it's a daily moves league — you can pick up a player on Tuesday and use him Wednesday, and you can shuffle your active/reserves every day, so it makes for an ideal league to stream players — both starting pitchers and hitters with good matchups. You have to be on your toes to grab emerging closers, hitters on a hot streak or new call-ups. The rosters are different, too — only one catcher, four outfielders instead of five, and two UTs instead of one. Not every roster slot has to be filled, either — if you want to own 15 pitchers to be better able to stream, and as a consequence leave one of your OF slots open, knock yourself out. There is a limit to streaming however — 162 games per hitting slot and 1,400 innings cap for pitchers. Finally, the position qualifications are more liberal — 10 games played or five games started last year to qualify.

There are 16 teams in the league, and I drew Lucky Number 16. Wait, that's not a thing? No, it didn't feel lucky at all. I prefer to be toward the middle in deep drafts and certainly didn't want to be at the back in this one. I made getting an ace and a power/speed combo guy with my first two picks a priority. I've also been caught on the wrong end of some wicked closer runs in this league in the past, and with it being an innings cap league, I wanted to prioritize getting two closers, something I wouldn't necessarily do in other leagues.

Here's a link to the full results and then here's my team, out of the 16-slot:

So about that exception to not bumping up injured players, due to the delayed start date? How about with my first pick? When you pick on the wheel, you have to anticipate certain runs, and make some tough calls early to get out ahead of those runs. For example, how did I want to handle starting pitching? How important was it to get an ace on the 1-2 turn, or wait to see what was available to me at 48-49 (or later)? I decided that I wanted an ace, at least if one of the top five starters was there. I wouldn't push Justin Verlander, as I think his injury situation is more ominous than Max Scherzer's, no matter when we return to action. Without an overall contest, I thought I had a chance of that working for me, even though it's a 16-team league. 

Sure enough, this league did discount starting pitchers — and yet I still was left with an uncomfortable choice. Gerrit Cole dropped to 10th and Jacob deGrom to 12th, and I thought I might even have a choice on the wheel. Alas, my preferred options of Walker Buehler and Jack Flaherty went 14/15 respectively, leaving me to Mad Max or bust. I chose Scherzer and went with Jose Ramirez over J.D. Martinez on the comeback, to make sure I didn't get fully left out of the established power/speed players. It did set me on a path where my batting average is on shakier foundation than most.

I'll write brief comments on my remaining picks:

3.16 (48) Keston Hiura — Again, I found another player to provide both speed and power, and from a middle infield slot.

4.1 (49) Nelson Cruz — In a league with two UT spots, a DH-only player shouldn't get discounted. And Cruz did not get discounted. However, I have some regrets about not taking Bo Bichette yet again, as my other SS targets were frequent misses. But I simply went highest-rated player on the board with this one.

5.16 (80) Roberto Osuna — I rarely take closers this early, but in this league it makes sense, especially knowing how unlikely it would be that I get one I like with the next pair of picks.

6.1 (81) Eddie Rosario — Does something of everything, should have massive counting stats in the Twins lineup. I have many, many Twins.

7.16 (112) Zac Gallen — Overjoyed with this pick — I have been missing Gallen lately (he's going in the 90s overall recently in the NFBC), and I needed an SP2.

8.1 (113) Miguel Sano — It helps that Sano already qualifies at 1B in this league.

9.16 (144) Jean Segura — Remember when I said that I kept missing SS targets? In this round alone Amed Rosario, Elvis Andrus and Jorge Polanco went before me, to my chagrin. I wasn't willing to wait to see what 30 more picks would bring me.

10.1 (145) Nick Anderson — Not guaranteed to be the full-time closer, but even as an ace reliever with elite skills he'd play in this league. It didn't hurt that he was having a great spring prior to everything getting shut down.

11.16 (176) Ryan McMahon — Eligible at 1B/2B/3B here, and manager Bud Black committed to giving him full playing time.

12.1 (177) Paul DeJong — Having waited so long to get a shortstop, I wanted to make sure I got another one in full order, and I like DeJong's power potential and spot in the order.

13.16 (208) Sandy Alcantara — The consequence of the DeJong pick was letting a number of good SPs go by in the ensuing 30 picks, but I still found two that I liked with this turn.

14.1 (209) Masahiro Tanaka — Tanaka talked about how the ball was easier to grip this spring, and that bodes well for him and his ability to induce whiffs.

15.16 (240) Brett Gardner — I purposefully waited to fill my outfield slots, given we only need four and there's plenty in this grouping that I like. Gardner, even with the delayed start to the season, is going to play a ton this year and should benefit from a strong lineup. Even when Judge and Stanton return, I still think Gardner plays a lot — and I still think either/both Judge or Stanton could spring another flat.

16.1 (241) Ryan Yarbrough — I could have taken another OF here, but Yarbrough was too good to pass up.

17.16 (272) Jo Adell — Having missed on outfielder targets (Shogo Akiyama, Mike Yastrzemski, Sam Hilliard, Corey Dickerson among others), I took a gamble on Adell that he'll get called up sooner rather later.

18.1 (273) Mike Tauchman — Tauchman is the Yankees' best defensive outfielder outside of Aaron Hicks, who will still be out whenever play resumes, and that's a plus in favor of him getting more playing time. I like that he's a left-handed hitter in Yankee Stadium, too.

19.16 (304) Mauricio Dubon — Dubon is an upside gamble in terms of speed, and he should add OF-eligiblity early in the season.

20.1 (305) Scott Oberg — I actually took Oberg ahead of Wade Davis; he's clearly been the better pitcher the last two years.

21.16 (336) Jon Gray — I like that we can spot Gray for just road starts, plus there's a slim hope that he can get traded to greener pastures.

22.1 (337) Adam Ottavino — Again, this league rewards primary setup guys. But ... I spaced out and missed taking a shot on Corbin Burnes or Josh Lindblom — they both went within the next five picks, and I like both better. FAIL.

23.16 (368) Tom Murphy — I love waiting on catchers in one-catcher leagues.

24.1 (369) Marco Gonzales — Hopefully I can stream him properly.

25.16 (400) Anibal Sanchez — That makes seven leagues for me.

26.1 (401) Austin Riley — Pure upside play. Passed up teammate Nick Markakis to get him.

I'm a little weak in SP depth and outfield depth, but both positions are the two easiest places to find free loot on the waiver wire. I'll just have to be proactive in finding it. A league like this really is a grind in waiting between picks and making trade-offs with each decision. Here's hoping our wait to see how it plays out isn't too long!