This article is part of our AL FAAB Factor series.
12 games are included in Wednesday's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Jacob deGrom ($12,000) leads six arms priced north of 10k Wednesday against the Marlins. It's an obvious plus matchup against a lineup he's 4-1 against this year, striking out 39 over 31.0 innings while allowing 28 hits and 11 runs. There's no indication deGrom's pitch count will be limited in what should be his final start, making cost the only hindrance.
Shane Bieber follows ($11,800) and is a bit of a wild card. The Indians need a good start as they chase a postseason bid, and the White Sox have only a .299 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and strike out 26.3 percent of the time against righties. But Bieber has allowed 10 runs and 21 hits over 19.2 innings against them to date. He's a little more of a GPP pivot than a cash game anchor as such. Charlie Morton ($11,100) is in a similar spot. The Rays need a quality outing to continue their postseason aspirations, but he's allowed four homers and 14 runs across 15.1 innings against the Yankees while fanning 20. The risk-reward here isn't for cash lineups.
Zack Greinke ($10,400), Frankie Montas ($10,100) and Dinelson Lamet ($10,000) round out the top tier. Greinke hasn't been as dominant as you'd like for this price, but the win probability against the Mariners (+300) should keep the floor stable. Montas is an intriguing GPP flier. He was borderline dominant prior to suspension, is well rested and stretched out, and gets
12 games are included in Wednesday's main slate.
Pitching Breakdown
Jacob deGrom ($12,000) leads six arms priced north of 10k Wednesday against the Marlins. It's an obvious plus matchup against a lineup he's 4-1 against this year, striking out 39 over 31.0 innings while allowing 28 hits and 11 runs. There's no indication deGrom's pitch count will be limited in what should be his final start, making cost the only hindrance.
Shane Bieber follows ($11,800) and is a bit of a wild card. The Indians need a good start as they chase a postseason bid, and the White Sox have only a .299 wOBA, 86 wRC+ and strike out 26.3 percent of the time against righties. But Bieber has allowed 10 runs and 21 hits over 19.2 innings against them to date. He's a little more of a GPP pivot than a cash game anchor as such. Charlie Morton ($11,100) is in a similar spot. The Rays need a quality outing to continue their postseason aspirations, but he's allowed four homers and 14 runs across 15.1 innings against the Yankees while fanning 20. The risk-reward here isn't for cash lineups.
Zack Greinke ($10,400), Frankie Montas ($10,100) and Dinelson Lamet ($10,000) round out the top tier. Greinke hasn't been as dominant as you'd like for this price, but the win probability against the Mariners (+300) should keep the floor stable. Montas is an intriguing GPP flier. He was borderline dominant prior to suspension, is well rested and stretched out, and gets an Angels lineup void of most/all of their big bats. He's auditioning for a potential postseason role, and I personally like the upside, though not the price. Lamet is always about the strikeout upside. He's fanned seven Dodgers across five innings, while allowing three runs. It's never fun targeting an arm against this offense, but the K upside usually offsets the damage Lamet allows, making him a low-owned viable choice.
J.A. Happ ($8,700) is in an interesting spot. He's going to come in in long relief as the Yankees prep him for a bullpen role in the postseason, so his workload is certainly questionable. But he's impressed in September (1.61 ERA, 3.49 FIP, .250 wOBA allowed) and has faired well against the Rays (three runs, 10 hits across 10.1 innings).
The bottom tier of arms is littered with question marks. Jon Lester ($8,300) is in a favorable spot against a Pirates offense that has slumped throughout the second half, but the Cubs have little to nothing to play for, and Lester's form is poor, including an 11-hit, seven run showing against the Pirates just two starts ago. Truthfully, there isn't an arm below 7k that we can feel confident will work 5+ innings. As such, if we're punting on a second arm, Mike Montgomery ($4,400) makes some sense for GPPers. The Braves are trotting out a makeshift lineup as the allow their starters to rest prior to the NLDS, and are striking out at a 26.3 percent clip in September. It won't take a lot for Montgomery to return 2x value.
Key Chalk/Value
Boston and Texas combined for 22 runs and 29 hits Tuesday, and I see no reason to think the offenses will cool off with Rick Porcello opposing Koby Allard. J.D. Martinez ($5,000) is in a great spot for Boston against the lefty, and comes at a slight discount to Mookie Betts ($5,600), Rafael Devers ($5,300) and Xander Bogaerts ($5,200). The Ranger options may depend on how the lineup card reads, but if Nick Solak ($4,500) lands in the cleanup spot again, he's a little more of a value play than Danny Santana ($5,300) or Shin-Soo Choo ($4,700)
Baltimore has scored 21 runs in their first two games in Toronto, while the Blue Jays have added 15, and both sides seem likely to stay hot with Gabriel Ynoa facing Jacob Waguespack Wednesday. Trey Mancini ($4,800) was a perfect 5-for-5 Tuesday, has am 11-game hitting streak and has hit safely in all but two games in September, and with Waguespack being more vulnerable to same-handed bats, this looks like an okay spot for Austin Hays ($4,300) and his surging power. Injuries and a lack of lefties don't leave many Blue Jays' left to target, but with Ynoa allowing a .391 wOBA and .961 OPS to opposite-handed bats, taking a gamble on power from Rowdy Tellez ($3,700) or Justin Smoak ($3,700) may be the only exposure needed.
I'm not sure I trust the Atlanta lineup against the aforementioned Montgomery, as they won't have Ronald Acuna Jr. ($5,400) or Freddie Freeman ($4,900). But with a lefty on the mound, Ozzie Albies ($4,900) should be in many lineups. Not only does he have a .464 wOBA, 189 wRC+ and .306 ISO against southpaws, he has 28 hits, including five homers and 12 for extra bases, in 20 September games. The Royals' side of this game is worth looking into too with Josh Tomlin opening and the bullpen piecing things together; we could even see rookies Kyle Wright and/or Bryse Wilson. The Royals put up nine last night and the game has a double-digit run total, and the Kansas City bats are very cheap, led by Jorge Soler ($4,300), with Hunter Dozier ($3,800) and Alex Gordon ($3,600) also standing out.
Stacks
Nationals vs. Drew Smyly (Phillies)
Anthony Rendon (3B - $5,400), Asdrubel Cabrera (2B/3B - $4,100), Ryan Zimmerman (1B - $3,800)
I don't expect the Nationals will rest many regulars after locking up a postseason birth Tuesday with home field still to be determined. They're a hot lineup facing a pitcher who has allowed eight runs in his last six innings, and at least four in six of his last 10 starts. Rendon leads the way with a .304 ISO against lefties, adding a .416 wOBA and 156 wRC+. The matchup has pushed prices sky high here, making a top-tier stack challenging, so targeting Cabrera and his .445 wOBA and 176 wRC+ against lefties since joining the Nats provides salary relief. Zimmerman further does so, and while his power is evaporating as he ages, he still carries a .409 wOBA and 152 wRC+ in this spot.
Indians vs. Ross Detwiler (White Sox)
Jose Ramirez (3B - $5,000), Oscar Mercado (OF - $5,200), Yasiel Puig (OF - $4,500)
Detwiler has allowed 17 runs over his last four starts, including four in 2.2 innings to Cleveland two turns ago. He's been victimized by same-handed bats more frequently, which lands us on Mercado and Puig over switch-hitting Francisco Lindor ($5,300) and/or Carlos Santana ($5,000). Avoiding lefty bats doesn't make full sense either, and I'll jump on Ramirez at a slightly lower number than Lindor following his two-homer, seven RBI return to action Tuesday. Bradley Zimmer ($3,900) would offer some salary relief if he finds his way into the lineup.
Mets vs. Robert Dugger (Marlins)
Jeff McNeil (2B/OF - $4,700), Michael Conforto (OF - $4,400), Brandon Nimmo (OF- $4,100)
Dugger has a 5.19 road ERA and 7.07 road xFIP, where he's allowing a .423 wOBA and 1.010 OPS to lefties, something the Mets' lineup has plenty of. No further explanation needed, though it's worth noting Conforto has three homers and seven RBI in his last three. Robinson Cano ($3,700) is in play if you need to save.
