MLB Barometer: Risers & Fallers

Last week's column began with a look at my Too Early Mock draft, an exercise designed to show how fantasy analysts across the industry are viewing players before the 2020 draft season kicks off. We'll continue that this week,  looking at some of the names I've been drawn to in the middle rounds. Deciding between players who have minimal or no experience and established but boring veterans continues to be a perplexing problem with no ADP or projections to guide us. I've wound up leaning toward the veterans, as you'll see below, though not necessarily by design.

Here are my thoughts for next year on the guys I grabbed in rounds 9 to 18:

Round 9, pick 132: Carlos Santana, 1B, Indians. Paired with Jose Abreu in the previous round, I now have the sixth- and seventh-best first basemen according to our earned auction values. Yes, he's 33, but he's posted career highs in homers (34), runs (102), RBI (89) and batting average (.280).

Round 10, pick 139: [EDIT] The player selected is involved in a legal matter and no longer warrants a mention.

Round 11, pick 162: Matthew Boyd, SP, Tigers. His ADP will be one to watch, as he's gone as high as 134 and as low as 200. I'll take his 30.7 percent strikeout rate and hope that his ERA next season looks more like his 3.82 xFIP and 3.56 SIERA this year than his homer-inflated 4.54 actual ERA.

Round 12, pick 169: Jake Odorizzi, SP, Twins. I've never been particularly interested in Odorizzi before, but a jump in strikeout rate to 26.4 percent this season piques my interest. I'm apparently higher on him than the pack in general, as he has a 196.3 ADP, though he's been grabbed as high as 121 in one draft.

Round 13, pick 192: Ken Giles, RP, Blue Jays. Giles is potentially a trade or injury risk, but he's been lights-out when available, ranking fourth among qualified relievers in strikeout rate (39.6 percent) and sixth in ERA (1.88).

Round 14, pick 199: Luke Weaver, SP, Diamondbacks. A stock worth watching this winter. Can we trust his recovery from an elbow injury? And how much faith do we put in his dramatically improved 2019 in what has only been 11 starts? He's gone as high as 149 and as low as 266.

Round 15, pick 222: Andrew McCutchen, OF, Phillies. Another injury gamble. Looked quite good leading off an improved Phillies lineup in the best park of his career, scoring 45 runs in 59 games, but he'll turn 33 in October and will be coming back from a torn ACL.

Round 16, pick 229: Cole Hamels, SP, Cubs. Very much in boring veteran territory, Hamels has continued to produce ERAs below 4.00 while striking out batters at a roughly average rate. His home park and team context next season could have a significant effect on his value.

Round 17, pick 252: Adam Eaton, OF, Nationals. I still needed two more outfielders, and Eaton was the most reliable one I could find (assuming he stays healthy). He won't be flashy but should contribute across the board while scoring a lot of runs in a good offense.

Round 18, pick 259: Chris Archer, SP, Pirates. I was in on Archer to a certain extent this season as his price had finally fallen low enough, but it turns out it didn't fall nearly enough. He's still striking people out, though, and if you can get him this late, he won't have to bounce back far to wind up as a good value.

It's a group that skews old, but Weaver and Boyd are a pair that I feel could particularly outperform their ADP next season if things break right. What do you think? Any sleepers or reaches in that group? Feel free to share thoughts in the comments. For now, we'll move on to the players making waves in recent weeks.

RISERS

Austin Meadows, OF, Rays: Meadows' rise seems to mirror Chris Archer's fall in a way that must be quite cruel for Pirates fans. (Cold take of the week: Tampa Bay has a good front office.) While Archer battles injuries on his way to an ERA north of 5.00, Meadows has been breaking out in a big way. His .289/.357/.563 season slash line with 31 homers and 11 steals is impressive enough, but he's only been getting better down the stretch. He's hit an incredible .340/.393/.757 over his last 26 games and an even better .423/.492/.923 in 14 games since the start of September. He leads the AL in slugging and OPS this month and is tied for the AL lead with seven homers. If Meadows hadn't lost time to a thumb injury early in the season, he'd likely rank higher than 15th in earned value among outfielders. He'll have a chance to beat that number next season if his breakout continues.

Yoan Moncada, 2B/3B, White Sox: Moncada has had something of an up-and-down season, but he certainly seems to be ending it the right way. After stumbling to a .189/.211/.405 line (good for a 55 wRC+) in August, he's rebounded to record a .436/.492/.636 line (good for a wRC+ of 201) in September. He's hit for both power and contact this month, striking out just 15.9 percent of the time, far below his career average of 31.3 percent. He's shown growth in that number all season, posting a 27.3 percent mark on the year, definitely a movement in the right direction. Moncada's .393 BABIP does cast some doubt on his .308/.363/.537 slash line, but Statcast loves his quality of contact and doesn't foresee a ton of regression, giving him an expected batting average of .289 and an expected slugging percentage of .513. Still just 24 and with the pedigree of a former first-overall prospect, it's easy to see Moncada continuing to build on those numbers next season.

Josh Hader, RP, Brewers: Hader appeared to be wearing down a bit as the summer dragged on, but he's back on track in September. Look at his K%-BB% and FIP by month this season:

That 53.3 K%-BB% is just absurd and has required striking out 60 percent of batters since the start of September. It's safe to say Hader is back on track. His 129 strikeouts on the season are 14 more than any other reliever and would be tied for 73rd among starters, tied with Rick Porcello and just one behind J.A. Happ and Mike Soroka, all of whom have thrown more than double Hader's 70 innings. Now that he's also getting nearly all the saves in Milwaukee, it's tough to envision taking anyone else as the top reliever off the board this offseason.

Chris Paddack, SP, Padres: Paddack was supposed to fade down the stretch in his first big-league season as he blew past his 90 innings from last season. That did appear to be happening throughout most of August, as he recorded a 10.06 ERA over his first four starts of the month. He's turned things around dramatically over his last three outings, however, posting a 23:3 K:BB while allowing just a single run in 18.1 innings. It's not clear how many more starts the Padres will allow Paddack to make, but he clearly wants to keep pitching and has been making his case to do so. The rookie has been the 26th-most valuable starting pitcher according to our earned auction values and could certainly beat that number next season with a heavier workload and another season of experience. His ADP is 24th among starters in the Too Early Mocks, a number  I could see rising this winter.

Sean Murphy, C, Athletics: Murphy might have been an established catcher for much of this season if not for wrist surgery in July last year and knee surgery this May. He finally earned a call-up at the start of September after playing just 34 career games at the Triple-A level, but he's looked more than ready, hitting .423/.464/1.038 with four homers in his first nine games. Sure, it's taken a .467 BABIP to get to that batting average, but it's hard to argue with the power, and it's not as if regressing to his .368 expected batting average and .750 expected slugging percentage according to Statcast would be anything close to a disappointment. While Murphy won't continue to hit better than Babe Ruth in the future, there's plenty reason to believe in him as a quality fantasy option at the catcher position. He hit .308/.386/.625 with 10 homers in 31 games for Triple-A Las Vegas this season, and scouts like both his ability to hit for average and power, not to mention his strong defense, which should keep him in the lineup through offensive slumps.

Rougned Odor, 2B, Rangers: Odor is playing for his future as a starter, as the Rangers have finally gotten fed up with his poor approach at the plate. It's had to blame them, as it's now been three seasons since he's recorded an above-average batting line. As of Aug. 29, he'd gone hitless in nine consecutive games and owned an awful .192/.270/.396 slash line with a 31.4 percent strikeout rate. He seems to be responding quite well to threats to his playing time from manager Chris Woodard, though, hitting .304/.371/.732 with six homers and a respectable 22.6 percent strikeout rate in his last 15 games. The talent is seemingly still there, and Odor is still just 25, so it may be worth tentatively buying back in after he's given plenty of reasons to be out the last few seasons.

FALLERS

Andrew Benintendi, OF, Red Sox: Benintendi is limping across the finish line along with the rest of the Red Sox, posting a poor .152/.256/.227 slash line over his last 20 games. The slump has dragged his season slash line down to .272/.349/.444, good for a mediocre 104 wRC+, a significant step down from the 120 wRC+ he recorded last season. His strikeout rate has jumped from 16.0 percent last year to 23.2 percent this year. After being taken as the 11th outfielder off the board in the NFBC this season, surrounded by Charlie Blackmon, Whit Merrifield, Kris Bryant and Juan Soto, he is the 46th-best outfielder by earned auction value, near names like Domingo Santana, Jason Heyward, Mallex Smith and Randal Grichuk. While Benintendi is still just 25 and comes with considerable prospect pedigree, it's fair to worry about his stock. He entered the season seen as a cross-category contributor who could hit .290 in a 20-20 season, but he'll finish it having performed capably enough but not at all impressively in any category, hitting just 13 homers and stealing just 10 bases.

Aristides Aquino, OF, Reds: Aquino entered the year with minimal hype but put himself on the map with a remarkable 27-game stretch after getting called up in August, hitting .330/.393/.804 with 14 homers. In his last 17 games, however, he's been nearly as cold as he was previously hot, hitting .169/.219/.254 with just a single homer. That's not nearly enough to dispel the considerable excitement that surrounds the young outfielder, as he still owns a .269/.327/.596 slash line on the season in 44 games, but it does serve as a useful reminder to not anoint someone as a surefire future star too quickly. Statcast adds a further layer of skepticism to his profile, giving him an expected batting average of .248 and an expected slugging percentage of .488. He's still an interesting young player who should provide a fair amount of power next season (especially in his hitter-friendly home park), but those who took him in the sixth round of the Too Early Mocks may not have done so had the drafts started today.

Scott Kingery, 2B/3B/SS/OF, Phillies: Regardless of how Kingery's season ends, his 2019 campaign will be a very important step in his development, as he's taken a significant leap forward from his poor .226/.267/.338 line as a rookie. His year may no longer qualify as the breakout it looked to be early in the season, though, as he's been on an extended slump stretching back to the All-Star break. He's failed to build off his .292/.344/.545 first-half line, hitting just .229/.296/.427 in the second half. Kingery has been particularly poor over his last 11 games, hitting just .100/.143/.250. The 25-year-old is still hitting .260 on the season and is just one homer away from a respectable 20-10 season, so he's definitely a useful enough player, but he may not be a whole lot more than that.

Pablo Lopez, SP, Marlins: I liked Lopez as a deep sleeper over the winter, as his age, control, home park and reports of increased velocity all seemed to point toward a quality arm for the back end of a fantasy rotation. His velocity has indeed gone up by over a tick, bringing an increase in strikeouts with it, but his 4.97 ERA on the season is rather poor, and his 21.3 percent strikeout rate remains below league average. He's had a rough time in four starts since returning from a shoulder injury that cost him over two months, recording a 7.91 ERA while striking out just 14.0 percent of opposing batters. There's not a lot of reason to be interested in Lopez for the rest of the season, but he's still just 23 years old, so if he starts showing encouraging signs early next year I may jump right back in.