Mound Musings: Checking in on the Bullpens – National League

Earlier this season, we took a look at a few teams struggling to find answers in the bullpen. As the year has progressed, it has become painfully obvious to MLB and fantasy teams that a reliable bullpen, front to back, is critical to success. As many starting pitchers were kept at the trade deadline, the scramble was on for help in the endgame – an "endgame" that has been happening earlier and earlier.

Bullpen acquisitions create a potential shift in playoff chances

The trade deadline moves were generally intended to improve the team's chances of playing in October. A few teams dramatically improved while others were unable (or unwilling) to pull the trigger on potentially useful arms. Very few teams have five reliable starters. In fact, there are teams that are hard-pressed to pencil in more than a couple of regular starting pitchers who can be expected to generate many positive innings on a consistent basis. True quality relievers have become more important, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to "save" that best guy for the ninth inning. Let's take a look at some bullpen assignments in the NL and see how they stack up for a post-season push:

Here are some NL bullpen scenarios to keep an eye on:

• Washington Nationals – The Nationals struggled earlier this season, and their woeful bullpen was a big part of that. At one point they were well under .500, and many questioned their ability to make the playoffs. They had a solid closer in Sean Doolittle, but they frequently failed to get leads to him. It became even more problematic when he began ro wear down from overuse. In July, they began, not just tweaks, but a nearly complete overhaul of the pen. Today, it's a very different look. Veteran Fernando Rodney is the primary set-up guy (and probably the first choice if Doolittle needs a day off), while deadline acquisitions Hunter Strickland and Daniel Hudson are contributing bridge innings. Lefty Roenis Elias was also brought in at the deadline, adding very useful balance, but he suffered a hamstring injury that will hopefully only sideline him until next week. The net impact, the Nats might be the narrow favorites to win the NL East, their starting staff should benefit from more wins, and Doolittle will be more likely to stay fresh while seeing more save chances.
• Atlanta Braves – Just my opinion, but if the Nationals don't win the East, the Braves will. They were just as active as Washington (while the third contender in the division, Philadelphia, was relatively quiet at the deadline, and may have actually slipped behind the Mets in the divisional power ratings) as they went deal for deal with the Nats. They may have actually had bigger needs, with no real closer on the roster. Newly acquired Shane Greene has struggled a bit out of the gate, but I'm pretty confident he'll settle in. Save chances should be even more plentiful for him compared to the number of leads he was protecting for a weak Tigers team. He allows Luke Jackson to move back to a set-up role, but he'll have to share with other acquisitions, Chris Martin, who had some very successful closing experience in Japan, and former top closer Mark Melancon, who might be the first option if Greene needs a break. The Braves and Nationals both got a lot better virtually overnight.
• Arizona Diamondbacks– Arizona was active at the deadline adding a pair of pitchers in Mike Leake and Zac Gallen while subtracting Zack Greinke. However, since the deadline they also designated former closer Greg Holland for assignment (keep an eye on him, as some team will probably see if they can get him back on track), creating a reshuffle in the bullpen. It looks like they will initially see how the closer's jacket fits Archie Bradley. He has always been seen as a possibility to close games, and, after a really rough stretch, he has been very effective over the past month. They do have alternatives if Bradley stumbles. Yoan Lopez has been relatively steady this year but doesn't have much experience, and Yoshihisa Hirano has closing experience, but the team has consistently preferred to employ him in a set-up role. That's where they figure to pitch as long as Bradley gets the job done. An interesting arm to watch is the recently promoted Kevin Ginkel. A mostly unheralded prospect a couple years ago, he revamped his mechanics resulting in a big increase in velocity, and his new longer stride makes the fastback seem even quicker. He'll probably see low leverage work to start, but he was a dominant closer at Triple-A Reno.
• Chicago Cubs – The Cubs thought they had cured a problem when they added Craig Kimbrel to their bullpen. The signing allowed Pedro Strop to return to a set-up role, something he is better suited to fill, and left the ninth inning to an experienced closer. The results have been mixed with injuries, and, in Kimbrel's case, rust playing a part, and the saga is still unfolding. After sitting out the first half of the season, Kimbrel sometimes struggled with his command (1.66 WHIP) but he managed to log nine saves in 11 chances. Strop, however, also struggled, probably partially due to neck stiffness that landed him on the injured list. Just as Strop returned, Kimbrel went down with knee inflammation, and set-up man Brandon Kintzler went down with a minor pectoral strain. Right now, fill-in closer Steve Cishek, and newcomers Derek Holland and David Phelps, are carrying much of the load, but the Cubs need everyone healthy and contributing soon. One other name to consider, relief ace Brandon Morrow hasn't thrown an MLB pitch this season after elbow surgery last November and numerous setbacks in his rehab. He might return this month, but it's hard to count on that, and, even if he does make it back, he may not see a lot of high-leverage innings.
• New York Mets – It's somewhat surprising to even consider the Mets as a bullpen to watch. During the offseason they brought in Edwin Diaz who logged 57 saves in a memorable season in Seattle. On paper, their bullpen looks pretty stable, but paper doesn't always equate with wins and losses. Diaz may be wrestling with the heat of the media spotlight – not uncommon for players in New York – and there have been rumors that he would be dealt at the deadline or pulled from the closer's role. Neither happened, and I don't think he'll lose the closer's gig. His arm appears sound, but he has struggled on and off with command (1.45 WHIP), has had some serious bad luck (.417 BABIP) and he pitches in front of a dreadful defense. The Mets didn't deal Noah Syndergaard or Zack Wheeler and added Marcus Stroman. They have played better and are actually in a position to challenge for a wildcard spot. They need Diaz to pitch the ninth inning with Seth Lugo setting him up, while Jeurys Familia and Justin Wilson contribute as the bridge to the late innings. They may or may not make the playoffs this year – they are still a long shot – but with some tweaking they have a team that can compete next year … at least on paper.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Johnny Cueto has embarked on a rehab assignment. Quickly working his way back from Tommy John surgery just over a year ago, I don't think he'll have time to make a fantasy contribution this season, but it's great to see the colorful hurler back on the mound. He'll likely be on my 2020 consideration list.
• Houston added Aaron Sanchez in a last minute deal with Toronto, and it paid immediate dividends. He and three relievers tossed a no-hitter, highlighted by a significant change in his pitch mix. He used his nasty breaking pitches and changeup far more often. He might be on track for a homestretch flourish.
• I'm sure the Reds view Kevin Gausman as a reclamation project after claiming him off waivers earlier this week. I truly hope they find the answers, but even with the occasional flash of dominance this year, he will probably need to completely reinvent himself if he is to ever again be a plug-and-play starting pitcher.
• The Rays are still in the playoff hunt despite injuries to a couple of their best starting pitchers. Blake Snell is hoping to return around the end of the month after undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery. They really need him back to full health, and his rehab progress should be monitored closely by fantasy owners.
• One start does not a turnaround make, but Mike Foltynewicz looked a lot more like the 2018 version in his return from a few weeks at Triple-A Gwinnett. More life on his fastball and a crisp slider, but most of all he displayed more consistent command of all his pitches. Hopefully he'll build on this outing moving forward.
• Minnesota's Michael Pineda was just getting into a good rhythm when a triceps injury landed him on the injured list. The Twins are expecting the stay to be short, so hopefully the time off won't disrupt his progression back to the performance levels he displayed earlier in his career. I like his chances to finish strong.

Endgame Odyssey:

I'll be interested to see how things go in Texas over the coming days/weeks. Their closer for much of the season, Shawn Kelley, was hurt and is expected to return as a set-up man, and they traded away Chris Martin. That puts the ball back in Jose Leclerc's court. I'm at a bit of a loss to explain his usage this year. He has incredible stuff, but he has struggled in the ninth inning. Hopefully he'll seize the opportunity. Liam Hendriks has had some ups and downs since taking over the closer's gig in Oakland, but I have never seen him throwing the kind of stuff he has apparently discovered. Probably the only reason Toronto's Ken Giles is still in town, the elbow inflammation that sidelined him right before the deadline is still causing him to not pitch on back-to-back days. He'll still work the ninth on most nights when needed and available. I continue to be intrigued with the possibility of Nick Anderson eventually taking over the closing gig in Tampa Bay. Lefty Jose Alvarado is progressing in his rehab from an oblique injury, so maybe he and Anderson could work the ninth in a timeshare. He's worth a flyer.