Mound Musings: Is a Deep Bullpen a Ticket to the Playoffs?

We fantasy baseball players always need to be aware of evolving trends in the game as we try to out-hustle the competition. MLB General Managers and field managers face similar challenges to a far greater extent. So, as we look at the makeup of some of the favorites to make the 2019 playoffs, today's question focuses on the impact of a deep and effective bullpen on those playoff aspirations, and of course, how those better bullpens can affect your fantasy team.

I think most would agree that a top-shelf MLB team needs a wide variety of players contributing to their overall success. Solid hitting is obvious – if you don't score at least one run, you can't win a game. However, pitching has to allow fewer runs than you score, and that's problematic, especially for teams with shallow bullpens. Even the elite pitchers are suffering this season. Did you know that the Nationals and Red Sox are a combined 8-20 in games started by Max Scherzer and Chris Sale? The bullpens haven't been responsible for all of those losses, but they have done their parts. It was even worse until recently as Scherzer has won his last two starts.

That strongly underscores the glaring weakness of several otherwise good teams. The Nationals have one of the worst bullpens in baseball. Quite simply, unless they can pile up a large number of runs in support of starters like Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, there is no guarantee they can get the game to closer Sean Doolittle. The result is fewer wins for their fantasy owners and even fewer saves for Doolittle. The best news for Washington is their NL East opponents, the Braves, Phillies and Mets, have bullpens that are nearly as unreliable.

As a result, I am compelled to downgrade the starting pitchers toiling for teams with inept bullpens. They may still provide strikeouts, and they might still post useful ERA and WHIP peripherals (albeit they need to hope they leave the games with no runners on base for the arson squads to let in), but they won't pile up the wins you might expect. Naturally, save totals for closers on these teams also suffer. Wins tend to come in games with big leads or not at all. Conversely, teams with deeper, quality bullpens tend to reward their starting pitchers (and closers) with more counting stats, so it just stands to reason, they should probably be bumped up a bit. Let's take a look at a couple of deeper bullpens, including one that just got potentially a whole lot deeper.

Despite some question marks at the back of their rotation, I consider the Astros to be one of, if not the best team in baseball. The explosive young sticks are a huge part of that. I mean, how many teams can fill in for George Springer with someone the caliber of Jake Marisnick? But, I would include their bullpen, top to bottom, as a potentially equal factor. Justin Verlander and Gerrit Cole usually give them a lot of quality innings, giving their extraordinarily deep bullpen enough rest to pitch as needed in other games. Roberto Osuna is a top tier closer as the pen's anchor, but using Hector Rondon and Ryan Pressly in the seventh and eighth innings bridges the gap from starter to closer. Add in the electric Josh James and wily veteran Will Harris, plus the anticipated return of Collin McHugh, and the team just doesn't have any chinks in their bullpen armor. It all adds up to a bump in value for their starters, more save chances for Osuna and consistent holds for the late-inning set-up guys.

In the National League, the Cubs recently made a move to bolster their chances for a playoff spot coming out of the highly competitive NL Central. Following the conclusion of the first year player draft (removing draft pick compensation for the signing) they inked Craig Kimbrel to a multiyear contract. The repercussions of an addition like Kimbrel are fairly obvious, but don't overlook the impact this signing can have on the entire pitching staff. It's a domino effect. Kimbrel takes the ninth, but that allows Pedro Strop to return to his ideal role of primary set-up man, while Steve Cishek now can help share late-inning duties in bridging to the ninth. This frees up Carl Edwards Jr. and Brad Brach to pitch in less critical innings and doesn't even take into consideration the hoped for (but not guaranteed) eventual return of former closer Brandon Morrow. Like the Astros, this bullpen blueprint should increase the value of their starting pitchers, provide plenty of save opportunities for Kimbrel once he is up to speed, and generate consistent holds from their primary set-up arms.

There you have it – a few thoughts on what to watch for, who to watch and sometimes overlooked factors when evaluating bullpen choices for your fantasy teams.

Some Notable Rotation Ramblings:

• Ineffective relief pitching was evident in the Boston-Texas game last Monday. Both bullpens squandered excellent starts by Mike Minor and Chris Sale, resulting in two blown saves and no-decisions for the starters. Texas eventually won the game in 11 innings, but fantasy production was again compromised.
• Earlier this week, the Diamondbacks and Phillies combined for a MLB-record 13 home runs in a game, including five served up by Jerad Eickhoff in three-plus innings. I have been watching, and I really feel the strike zone is still shrinking, forcing pitchers to put the ball up higher and in the middle of the plate.
• The injury-riddled Cleveland pitching staff will welcome back Mike Clevinger early next week. He was dominating at the beginning of the year before a back injury sidelined him for two months. It's probably too little too late for the Indians this season, but if 100 percent healthy, he could be a huge boost for fantasy teams.
• I watched some of Peter Lambert's start in Coors Field and came away with mixed reviews. He had a little more zip than I anticipated on his fastball and showed a pretty nice curve and change, but his overall command wasn't what I expected. That needs to improve or he's high risk, especially in Colorado.
• With Alex Cobb requiring season-ending hip surgery, John Means, David Hess and even Gabriel Ynoa will likely stick in the Orioles rotation, at least for a while. Means has been somewhat surprisingly effective, but I question whether he has the stuff to keep it up. None are likely fantasy assets over the long haul.
• Dallas Keuchel is now a member of the Atlanta Braves, and he looked sharp in his first outing as he tossed 77 pitches, allowing just one hit, for Low-A Rome as he works to get back into game shape. He walked one and struck out nine. He should be in Atlanta soon based on this performance.

Endgame Odyssey:

The Ranges' bullpen continues to be a work in progress. I'm still completely convinced Jose Leclerc has the best skillset to close, and I think that will happen once they are certain he will be able to take occasional poor outings in stride. The learning sessions also continue to allow Texas to showcase Shawn Kelley prior to the trade deadline. It appears the Brewers would like to continue using Josh Hader as their closer. That's certainly understandable. They are trying very hard to avoid overworking him, and if they can accomplish that, they benefit greatly. They may look to add a strong set-up man in the coming weeks to help manage Hader's innings. The Red Sox continue to suffer from inconsistency at the back of their bullpen. Ryan Brasier has not been the answer, and Matt Barnes remains miscast in the closer's role, so an outside acquisition is imminent if they want to keep the Yankees and Rays in sight. The Braves didn't land Kimbrel, so the need to find a reliable closer has to be a priority right now. Luke Jackson has been a reasonably competent placeholder, but getting him back into a set-up role is their best bet. The Twins are riding pretty good starting pitching and a very powerful offense, but Blake Parker's vulnerability is beginning to show, and Taylor Rogers is experiencing minor (hopefully) back issues. I look for Trevor May to work later in games for the foreseeable future. The Blue Jays have placed closer Ken Giles on the injured list with elbow inflammation and named Joe Biagini interim closer. They are indicating the injury is minor so Biagini's tenure may be brief, and save chances are fairly rare these days in Toronto, so the fantasy impact is probably limited. Actually, I think Daniel Hudson might be a slightly better option. I wouldn't expect saves in bunches, but Ian Kennedy has quietly established himself as the closer in Kansas City.