Minor League Barometer: Risers & Fallers

The Baseball Gods answered our collective prayers and finally brought Yordan Alvarez up to the big leagues for the Astros.  Alvarez rewarded our faith by slugging a home run in his first career game, a clear sign he will continue to serve his squad for the foreseeable future.  On the flip side, we saw the end of the 2019 campaign for Brent Honeywell of the Tampa Bay Rays, who suffered a fractured elbow while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery.  Once thought to be an impact prospect this season, Honeywell will have to wait until 2020, having not pitched in a live game since 2017.

What else does 2019 have in store for our minor league phenoms?  Will Zac Gallen receive the inevitable call to the big leagues for the Marlins?  Will the Tigers continue to sit by and let their prized neophytes toil below?  Can Kyle Tucker follow the above-mentioned Alvarez's suit after being named Pacific Coast League Player of the Month?  Let's take a deep dive in this week's Minor League Barometer.

UPGRADE

Wander Franco, SS, TB – There should be little doubt as to which player is the No. 1 prospect in all of baseball now that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is in the big leagues.  That honor goes to Franco, an 18-year-old wunderkind who is taking the Midwest League by storm.  Franco is slashing .322/.389/.517 with six home runs, 28 RBI and 12 stolen bases through 49 games.  He has been even better of late, hitting .343 with two home runs, eight RBI and two steals over his last 10 contests.  Franco has more walks (25) than strikeouts (18) this season, and the switch-hitter's ability to make consistent contact against older competition is unparalleled at this point.  Franco appears to be the total package; the only thing that may hold him back is the notoriously conservative approach the Rays use in their farm system.  However, it is clear he is already too advanced for his current level.

Alek Thomas, OF, AZ – Thomas has found little resistance since entering the minors as a second round pick last season.  Assigned to Low-A at 18 to begin the 2019 campaign, Thomas has been nothing short of exceptional.  He is batting .303/.392/.495 with six home runs, 25 RBI and five steals through 53 contests - including .333 with two home runs and seven RBI over his last 10 outings and has received as many walks as strikeouts.  Despite his youth and the fact he does not look like a physically imposing specimen, Thomas possesses the speed, dexterity with the bat and plate discipline to shine.  Add in his surprising power, and the athletic Thomas - who could have played slot receiver at TCU - could instead end up becoming a five-tool player in the big leagues.

Estevan Florial, OF, NYY – Now might be the time to buy low on Florial, before he starts really tearing the cover off the ball.  He fractured his wrist in spring training, where he had been excelling prior to the injury. Florial has returned to health, and does not appear to have missed a beat.  Through six games at High-A Tampa, Florial is 6-for-20 with one home run, three stolen bases and more walks (five) than strikeouts (four) - and that may bump him up to Double-A shortly.  Various outfielders for the Yankees have suffered injuries this season, with Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton still on the Injured List.  Though Florial likely won't see the big leagues until 2020, a fast start could increase the likelihood the Yankees include Clint Frazier in a potential deal to land a starting pitcher before the trade deadline.

Josiah Gray, P, LAD – Gray has lived up to his high draft status from a season ago, making mincemeat of the competition during his limited time in the minors.  The 21-year-old was drafted by the Reds but traded to the Dodgers as part of the monstrous Yasiel Puig/Alex Wood deal.  Gray has three pitches, stellar control while showcasing the ability to keep the ball in the ballpark having only allowed two home runs in 103.1 professional innings.  Coming from Division II Le Moyne, Gray has more than held his own at each jump in levels, and currently sports a 3.58 ERA and 37:7 K:BB in 27.2 innings for High-A Rancho Cucamonga in the hitter-friendly California League.  While many pundits felt Gray could end up in the bullpen, he has so far shown all the makings of a top-flight starter.

CHECK STATUS

Will Craig, 1B/OF, PIT – Craig finally tapped into his power basin and clubbed 20 home runs last season, while knocking in 102 runs in 132 games at Double-A.  He started 2019 at Triple-A, and has continued to mash with 15 home runs in only 58 games.  He is also hitting .279, which would be his highest average recorded in a year in the minors if the season ended today.  It remains to be seen if he will continue to hit for average in the big leagues, but the power development was always the key for Craig.  If he also hits for average, that will be just gravy.  Interestingly, Josh Bell is enjoying a monstrous season in the Majors while manning first base, so Craig will ultimately have to shift to another position on the demand.  He was drafted as a third baseman but has only played first base the last three seasons.  However, he has been working in right field lately to increase his versatility.  The Pirates are deep in the outfield as well, but perhaps it eventually gives Craig a better chance to see regular at-bats.

Luis Garcia, SS, WAS – Garcia has been aggressively promoted and still owns plenty of upside, but the production has been less than stellar thus far at Double-A.  Garcia is slashing just .234/.269/.270 with three stolen bases in 57 contests.  Garcia has been completely devoid of power this season after hitting seven home runs in 2018, but it's his struggles to make contact that are eye-opening.  Garcia just turned 19, but never hit below .297 at any level prior to this season.  However, on the positive side, he is batting .317 over his last 10 contests and is so young for this level that perhaps he just needed some time to adjust to the bump in competition.  Garcia remains a left-handed teenager who could develop some power and also steal 10-plus bases.  He continues to be worth monitoring long-term, but the Nats may have to be a little less aggressive with him than they were with players like Juan Soto and Bryce Harper.

Willi Castro, SS, DET – The switch-hitting middle-infielder boasts double-digit potential in power and speed, but it's his sudden increased ability to handle the bat and strike zone that has vaulted him up the prospect rankings.  Castro is hitting .320/.396/.475 with four home runs, 27 RBI and nine steals through 56 games for Triple-A Toledo.  He's on pace to shatter his previous career best of 34 walks in a single season, and entered the season with a career .270 average in the minors.  The Tigers are struggling mightily with production up the middle of the infield, so Castro presents an enticing option for the big club.  Nevertheless, with little to play for in 2019, the organization may choose to simply let Castro bide his time in the minors until a cup of coffee in September.  In other words, he may not have much of an impact this season despite the continued success at Triple-A through the first two months of the year.

Abraham Toro, 3B, HOU – Another fast riser this season, Toro is slashing .302/.402/.498 with 10 home runs, 48 RBI and three steals through 58 games for Double-A Corpus Christi.  Of course, the big question will be where Toro ends up in the field, as Alex Bregman should be entrenched at the hot corner for the Astros for years to come - assuming Carlos Correa returns to health, of course.  The Astros seem to wield too many hitting options and not enough places to play them, but obviously that is a good problem to have.  For now, Toro will bide his time in the minors, but could end up at first base, in the outfield or even used as trade bait.

DOWNGRADE

Tyler Nevin, 1B, COL – Nevin won the batting title in the Arizona Fall League but failed to hit a single home run, and the 22-year-old has hit just three home runs in 56 games at Double-A Hartford.  Even worse, Nevin has seen his batting average take a nosedive, hitting only .228 in 2019.  Playing his future home games in the thin air in Colorado should ease power concerns a bit, but things become an issue if Nevin cannot hit for average either.  He isn't afraid to walk and does not strike out much, but a first baseman without power is not a very desirable commodity.  Nevin is hitting .282 over his last 10 games and does have a home run during that span, but it will take far more than that for him to regain some prospect lustre.

Yusniel Diaz, OF, BAL – Diaz spent over a month on the Injured List with a hamstring injury, but has hit just .200 with 12 strikeouts in 10 games since returning to active duty.  At one time considered the top prospect in the Orioles organization, an argument could be made that Ryan Mountcastle and pitcher DL Hall have passed him for that honor.  The 22-year-old is batting .215/..293/.323 in 25 games at Double-A Bowie with one home run and zero steals.  Diaz has a good eye at the dish, but has experienced trouble making contact in a small 2019 sample size.  In addition, he does not project for a ton of power or thefts.  As a result, Diaz may be lacking in crucial fantasy categories that could diminish his value.

Andres Gimenez, SS, NYM – A few developments have knocked Gimenez down a peg or two recently.  Firstly, he just landed on the Injured List with a hand/wrist injury.  Unfortunately, he had not been playing particularly well even before the injury, hitting just .232/.305/.333 through 45 games for Double-A Binghamton.  Gimenez has fanned 50 times over that span while drawing just 13 walks.  While he has produced 10 stolen bases, the inability to get on base consistently has decreased his chances on the basepaths.  In addition, Amed Rosario is having a breakout season with the bat at the big-league level, while teenaged prospect Ronny Mauricio is hitting .293 through 53 games at Low-A, and at 6-foot-3 has much more room to fill out than the smaller Gimenez.  As a result, Gimenez may end up getting lost in the shuffle.

Luis Oviedo, P, CLE – It's safe to say the Cleveland Indians have not had a stellar start to the season in terms of starting pitching, both in the big leagues as well as the minors.  Carlos Carrasco, Mike Clevinger and Corey Kluber remain sidelined while supposed ace Trevor Bauer has not lived up to last season's numbers and has been bombed of late.  Meanwhile, Triston McKenzie - arguably the top pitching prospect for the Tribe - has yet to appear in a minor league game this season due to injury and his checkered injury history becomes more disturbing by the day.  Oviedo is a promising young hurler with four potential pitches who has been mediocre at best thus far in 2019.  The peripheral statistics are disconcerting, as the usually controlled Oviedo has walked 28 batters in 61.1 innings for Low-A Lake County.  Curiously, his strikeouts have also fallen, as he has fanned just 42 batters during that time period.  Oviedo is 6-foot-4 and still largely projection, though it appears he is having difficulty hitting his spots.  Opposing batters are hitting just .225 against him, yet somehow his ERA is still hovering around 4.00.  Oviedo will continue to be brought along slowly and tinker with his mechanics.