Farm Futures: Top 30 Draft Prospects

Originally I wanted to make this a two-article week, with an article for the draft's hitters and another for the draft's pitchers, but I felt one big tiered article would be more useful. I know some of you participate in first-year player drafts right after the MLB draft, so hopefully this helps you with those if they take place before I am able to update the post-draft top 400. 

These rankings reflect the order in which I would select these players today. I can already guarantee you that I will not keep this exact order when I add these prospects to the top 400. My opinion on these players is evolving every day, and which team drafts a given player can affect their value. I typically don't care how high a player gets drafted, but I do care a little about what each player signs for, because this confirms their value in the market.

What follows are my tiers for the top 30 fantasy prospects from the 2019 MLB Draft:

TIER ONE

1. Adley Rutschman, C, Oregon State

I've already been told by one of my favorite subscribers that he is not taking "the catcher" so who would be my next pick at No. 2 in a rookie draft (this assumes Andrew Vaughn goes first). I get it. Catching prospects aren't any fun. I recently dropped Ronaldo Hernandez in TDGX for Anthony Kay, and Hernandez was then scooped up the next week for 14 percent of someone's FAAB budget (I had shopped him with no success). I just didn't want to use a roster spot being patient on a catcher who was in a funk at the plate and several years away from the majors. For every Gary Sanchez there seem to be at least a half dozen Chance Sisco's. Again, I get it. However, I think Rutschman is different. I feel confident about him being an excellent big-league hitter. Think how valuable a catcher who performs like peak Paul Goldschmidt and starts 135 games per year would be in any fantasy format. Would that player be worth a third rounder? A late second rounder? That's the type of upside we're talking about with Rutschman. The typical catching prospect languishes in the minors for four-plus years, but I think he could be ready for the big leagues next summer. That doesn't mean the Orioles will bring him up as soon as he is ready, but he would still be one of the first players from this draft to reach the majors even if he doesn't come up until early 2021. 

2. Andrew Vaughn, 1B, California

Vaughn is absolutely the "safe" No. 1 overall pick in first-year player drafts. Plus hit and 70-grade power are realistic grades that headline his scouting report. However, there's something about the 6-foot, R/R college first baseman profile that gives me pause. I think Rutschman has a prettier swing and it will be tough for Vaughn to end up in a more advantageous spot than Rutschman in Baltimore (Vaughn is far from a lock to go to the White Sox at No. 3). We're splitting hairs (in my opinion) between the two, which is why the tiered system is nice. I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of taking Vaughn first overall, but I do strongly believe that Vaughn and Rutschman should go 1-2 in some order in FYPD.

TIER TWO

3. Hunter Bishop, OF, Arizona State

Here is my first deviation from most lists out there. Bishop (the younger brother of Mariners prospect Braden Bishop) has the look of a middle-of-the-order left-handed thumper who could chip in 15 steals annually. His bat speed is elite, and at 6-foot-5, he gets excellent leverage. It all adds up to at least plus power, and some evaluators will throw a 60-grade on his speed as well. There will be some swing-and-miss -- if he doesn't meet expectations, strikeouts will be the reason why. However, I think he could be a 25-28 percent strikeout guy and still be a fantasy monster.

4. JJ Bleday, OF, Vanderbilt

Bleday has a better hit tool than Bishop, and this year he started showcasing similar raw power, although that had not been the case in his first two seasons at Vanderbilt. He could very easily end up being the best hitter in this entire class -- again, we're splitting hairs with all these guys up top. We know Bleday won't be a threat on the bases (he is a well below-average runner), so he needs to hit as expected to be worthy of a top-five pick in FYPD.

5. Riley Greene, OF, Hagerty HS (Florida)

This year's top hit tool on the prep side, Greene could end up as a 60- or 70-grade hitter with plus power. He is essentially the high-school version of Bleday, as it is all about his bat and he won't help with stolen bases. Mickey Moniak and Alex Jackson were each touted as the top prep hitters in their draft classes, so that title does not guarantee success in pro ball, but Royce Lewis, Kyle Tucker and Jarred Kelenic have also held that honor in recent classes.

6. Bobby Witt Jr., SS, Colleyville Heritage HS (Texas)

This one could end up looking bad for me if Witt reaches the high end of outcomes on his hit tool. It's always a little scary when a prep player's hit tool is his "worst" tool, but that is just as much about how good Witt's other four tools are. Evaluators think he could become a 50-grade hitter, but if he is only a 45-grade hitter, we're talking about Trevor Story playing half his games in Kansas City. I wouldn't try to talk anyone out of taking a no-doubt shortstop with plus power and plus speed third in FYPD, but I think the risk of him being a guy who strikes out a lot and hits around .245 is more legitimate than a lot of people are making it out to be.

TIER THREE

7. Corbin Carroll, OF, Lakeside HS (Washington)

Carroll is only 5-foot-10, but he might have the second-best hit tool among prep hitters in this class, and is a plus runner who will stick in center field. His size will scare some people off, but I think he can develop 20-homer pop in time. In earlier versions of this piece I had him in the second tier.

8. CJ Abrams, SS, Blessed Trinity Catholic (Georgia)

If everything goes well with Abrams' development, I think he will be Amed Rosario with a bit more speed. He will stick at shortstop and is easily the fastest player (70-grade speed) and best athlete ranked in the top three tiers of this article. Most evaluators think he'll be a 50- or 55-grade hitter, but if he were to fall short of that, we'd be left with a one-category guy, as he doesn't project to develop much better than 15-homer pop.

9. Will Wilson, 2B/SS, North Carolina State

Wilson won't be coming off the board in the actual draft until at least the mid first round, as he will probably move to second base, and may only be an average defender there. However, he has one of the best hit tools in the entire class, and in fantasy we're fine with bat-first second basemen. He hit 16 home runs as a junior, and if he maxes out I think he could be a top-10 fantasy second baseman.

10. Keoni Cavaco, 3B, Eastlake HS (California)

Here is the helium guy, not just for dynasty leagues but also in real life. While these top three tiers are littered with guys with the potential for above-average or plus hit tools and above-average or plus power, Cavaco checks both those boxes while also projecting to steal double-digit bases. He is a good athlete who will stick at third base.

11. Josh Jung, 3B, Texas Tech

Jung reminds me of Indians prospect Nolan Jones, in that he has significant raw power but his all-fields approach mutes that power production to some extent. For those who really value track record, Jung gets a big check mark there, as he has always been a high-level performer. I just think he's more floor than ceiling in fantasy.

12. Brett Baty, 1B/3B/DH, Lake Travis HS (Texas)

Unfortunately his last name is pronounced "bayty" so the bat-first puns don't work as well as they could, but that's the gist, it's all about Baty's bat. He could tumble all the way to the bottom of the defensive spectrum, but could provide an above-average hit tool with 70-grade power from the left side if he maxes out.

TIER FOUR

13. George Kirby, RHP, Elon

You could ask five different analysts who their favorite pitcher from this class is for fantasy purposes and get five different answers. I watched about 10 seconds of Kirby and fell in love with his delivery and stuff. He could be Kyle Hendricks with a plus fastball -- his command is elite for an amateur pitcher and all three of his secondary pitches can flash plus.

14. Jackson Rutledge, RHP, San Jacinto JC (Texas)

The Nate Pearson comparisons are easy and apt, given that Rutledge is a JUCO product with a monster fastball and wipeout slider. He has the more traditional upside, compared to Kirby, but as with hit tools and hitting prospects, I think command is often underrated when evaluating pitching prospects.

15. Bryson Stott, SS, UNLV

Stott scares me because so much of his fantasy value hinges on his hit tool being as good as advertised. He probably won't be much of a power threat, despite standing 6-foot-3, and while he has some speed, he doesn't have enough to be valuable in fantasy if he is only hitting .260. His defense at shortstop should at least get him to the majors.

16. Matthew Allan, RHP, Seminole HS (Florida)

Allan is this year's top high-school arm. There would be some signability risk with him in most drafts (he is committed to Florida), but the lack of quality pitching in this class should lead to some team giving him the big signing bonus he is seeking. His fastball and curveball could each develop into 70-grade offerings, but prep righties are extremely risky.

17. Mike Toglia, 1B/OF, UCLA

Toglia, who is 6-foot-5, 200 pounds, will strike out quite a bit in pro ball, but in this range, we have to still try to chase ceiling, and Toglia could develop into a switch-hitting middle-of-the-order masher. He already has plus game power to all fields, and if he can keep the strikeouts in check, he has the upside to be a top-10 fantasy first baseman (he is athletic enough to move to the outfield).

18. Michael Busch, 1B, North Carolina

I've grown pretty wary of college first basemen whose ceiling is 6-hit, 6-power over the years. All it takes is for them to fall short in one of those two categories and you can be left with a Quadruple-A hitter. Busch fits this prototype, but he is a good defender at first base and really impressed with a wood bat in the Cape Cod League last year, so he should go in the first round.

19. Tyler Callihan, 2B/3B/C, Providence HS (Florida)

Callihan is as bat-first as they come, unless he can handle moving behind the plate full time. For our purposes, it would probably be best if he takes a Michael Chavis path, and just masquerades all over the infield. He is a well below-average runner, but could be a four-category beast.

20. Brennan Malone, RHP, IMG Academy (Florida)

Malone has the prettiest, most athletic delivery of the prep pitchers in this year's class. The results haven't always matched the stuff, but he has a projectable 6-foot-4 frame and already has a 70-grade fastball, so his ultimate ceiling is through the roof. His plus slider is his best secondary offering.

21. Alek Manoah, RHP, West Virginia

Manoah has improved his strike throwing enough this year that he will go in the first round, but his track record coming into the year screamed bullpen. He has a big fastball and a plus hard slider, so there is plenty of upside to dream on if his control gains hold in pro ball. An added element of risk is that he is 6-foot-6, 260 pounds -- measurements that are very rare for successful big-league starters.

22. Daniel Espino, RHP, Georgia Premier Academy

If all you care about is upside, the case could be made that Espino, who has an 80-grade fastball and could end up with a couple plus breaking balls, should be the first pitcher taken in FYPD. However, the upside-or-die approach should only be taken so far. I would throw an 80-grade on his risk profile. Pretty much any risk-associated trait you can think of with regards to pitchers applies to Espino -- poor mechanics, huge velocity at a young age, poor command, etc... It could all work for him, but that should not be the expectation.

23. Quinn Priester, RHP, Cary-Grove HS (Illinois)

Priester is extremely projectable, and is a player-development staff's dream. He has an easy, athletic delivery, and some evaluators think he will add velocity to his low-90s fastball once he receives pro instruction. His curveball could be a plus pitch and he has shown some feel for a changeup.

TIER FIVE

24. Rece Hinds, 3B/OF, IMG Academy (Florida)

We lead off tier five with three position players that have high-end tools and major questions about their ability to hit. Hinds has the most impressive raw power of any player in this class, reminding me a little of Yankees prospect Dermis Garcia with how quickly his rockets to left field reach the seats. However, he really needs to improve his pitch recognition. The strikeout numbers early on could be pretty scary.

25. Maurice Hampton, OF, Memphis University HS (Tennessee)

Hampton is the top two-sport guy in this year's draft. If he doesn't sign, he will go to LSU to play center field and cornerback on the gridiron. As you would expect, he has plus-plus speed and a compact, musclebound 6-foot frame. There is power to unlock, but he is very raw at the plate.

26. Greg Jones, SS/OF, UNC Wilmington

Of the players expected to come off the board on day one, Jones is the fastest. He has true 80-grade speed and has above-average raw power. Unfortunately, he has not succeeded at getting that power to show up consistently in games, and there are concerns that a subpar hit tool will prevent him from doing so in pro ball.

27. Jack Leiter, RHP, Delbarton HS (New Jersey)

While his fastball only sits in the low 90s, Leiter has a really nice pitch mix and excellent command, which makes sense given his bloodlines. His curveball is one of the best pitches in this entire class. However, I have him ranked here because I doubt he signs unless a team gets really aggressive on him. He comes from money and is committed to Vanderbilt -- if he goes to school and stays healthy he will still get paid in three years.

28. Nick Lodolo, LHP, TCU

There are always a few pitchers in each draft who are seen as easy first-round picks from a real-life perspective, but lack the upside to get us excited in dynasty leagues. Lodolo, a 6-foot-6 southpaw, is the best of that crop this year. He shouldn't have any problem sticking as a starter, but barring a legitimate velocity bump, his ceiling is capped as a sum-of-the-parts No. 3 starter.

29. Matt Wallner, OF, Southern Mississippi

Wallner has a lingering forearm injury that put an end to his two-way career, but he still put up monster offensive numbers as a junior. He has huge raw power and has had no trouble getting to it in games, dating back to his freshman year. It's possible he doesn't hit enough to be a regular, but I think he's a good flyer late in the second round of FYPD.

30. Aaron Schunk, 3B, Georgia

Schunk's hit tool and defense at the hot corner stand out as his top traits. He worked as a two-way player at Georgia but will be a position player in pro ball, and I think there is some untapped offensive upside once he is solely focused on hitting.