Collette Calls: Fowler Goes Nowhere

Normally this column is topic-specific, but this week's column will be a potpourri of sorts because I have a lot on my mind from readers' requests to transactions to observations. Let's start with a request first.

Rule 5 Help in 2016

In last week's column, someone asked for an update on Rule 5 picks that might make an impact in 2016. In short, 2016 has a tough act to follow as 2015 was one of the best, if not the best, Rule 5 draft class. The Phillies cashed in with Odubel Herrera and found themselves an everyday center fielder and leadoff man. The Rangers did not have to lick their wounds too long for losing Herrera because Delino DeShields Jr. paid off very well overall and filled a big need. Mark Canha was exposed by the Marlins, who decided to not even fill their 40-man roster and left a spot open to claim a lefty reliever from the Cubs whom the Marlins ended up releasing. Meanwhile, Canha batted .254/.315/.426 with 16 homers and drove in 70 runs for Oakland. This season, there are really two options to focus on.

Philly is looking to strike gold for a second consecutive season in outfielder Tyler Goeddel. Goeddel was drafted as a third baseman by Tampa Bay but was converted to the outfield last season while he spent all year in Double-A. Last season was a career year of sorts for him as he finally showed some power to go with his speed. He has a good approach at the plate and has the athleticism to play all three outfield spots. That's a good thing for Goeddel and the Phillies because right field is anything but locked up. Philly will obviously give Herrera his job back and would like to see Aaron Altherr hold down the left-field job, but right field is currently occupied by Peter Bourjos hitting eighth. Goeddel has shown the ability to accept his walks throughout his minor-league career, which is ideal when you're hitting in front of the pitcher in the National League. The Phillies will be terrible, which will allow them to give Goeddel all the time he needs to show if he can make the leap from Double-A to the majors and potentially have a double-double season.

Baltimore also hopes a former Rays outfielder can make the jump as they grabbed Joey Rickard in the Rule 5 draft. The deal and then no-deal with Dexter Fowler means Rickard has a fighting chance of making the Opening Day roster. The Orioles have certainly been nice to their Rule 5 guys in recent years allowing Ryan Flaherty, T.J. McFarland and Jason Garcia to stay on the roster. Rickard played at three levels with the Rays last season as the team was constantly moving personnel around to cover injuries at a variety of levels. He ended up with a .321/.427/.447 slash line in 480 plate appearances walking 69 times, striking out 75 times and going 23 for 29 on the basepaths. There's no power, but the ability to take walks, make contact and run well is what opened opportunities for Herrera last season in Philly. Rickard's main competition is the perennially fragile Nolan Reimold on the depth chart to serve as the primary backup to unproven corner outfield options in Baltimore.

Ian Desmond Takes His Talents to Arlington

It was announced Sunday that Ian Desmond has taken a pillow deal with the Texas Rangers for one-year/$8M. He is hoping he can do what Asdrubal Cabrera did last year and turn his 2016 performance into a multi-year deal. He may be motivated by the fact his new contract is roughly half what he declined when turning down the qualifying offer from the Nationals, but the Rangers added him to play both left field while Josh Hamilton is out as well as offer help in the infield.

For fantasy purposes, we need Desmond to get 20 games at shortstop because the skills do not stack up well in the outfield. Desmond has had a .311 wOBA, which ranks eighth among shortstops over the last two seasons but just 38th among outfielders. After three 20-20 seasons, Desmond picked a terrible time to struggle as he batted .233/.290/.384 with 19 homers and 13 steals last season. More troubling is that his strikeout rate worsened for a fourth straight season (21, 22, 28, 29 percent) and his batting average has fallen 59 points over that same span as it too has declined each season. Let's not forget that Texas is no longer the offensive haven it once was, so the fix for Desmond is simple: make more contact and stop chasing pitches out of the zone. Whereas he used to make contact on those pitches at a mid-60s rate in his prime, that's now down to the mid-50s.

New Pitches Are On Display

The last two seasons, I tracked pitchers' new pitches announced during camp and am doing so for a third straight season at Fangraphs. Several pitchers are trying out new pitches this spring, and the most intriguing might be Taijuan Walker going to the four-seam changeup. By pitchf/x data, Walker has thrown all of one changeup and has been using the splitter as his offspeed pitch. While he's gotten a good amount of swings-and-misses with the pitch, batters have hit .270 off the splitter while slugging .369 -- neither of which is good. The splitter is not as controllable as a changeup, so if Walker can master that changeup, he could pick up where he left off in 2015 when he finally showed signs of putting it all together.

Cleveland Outfield

It is fitting that I watched "Major League" at the gym just the other day, because the favorite phrase of the Japanese grounds crew certainly fits the Indians' projected starting lineup. Now that Abraham Almonte has been suspended for half the season and Michael Brantley is unlikely to be ready for Opening Day, the Tribe could be looking at the trio of Lonnie Chisenhall, Rajai Davis and Will Venable when the season opens. Not to mention, Venable and Chisenhall are best off in platoons rather than everyday situations. Collin Cowgill (no) and Joey Butler (no) are the only other right-handed outfield bats, so it could be ugly early. There are a few teams that have some right-handed outfield depth such as the Cubs and Rays, but you'd be best to steer clear of drafting Cleveland outfielders as long as you possibly can. Brantley's price is too high for my liking with him coming off shoulder surgery while the others are all end-game material.

Dexter Fowler Goes Nowhere

It was reported that Fowler had agreed to terms with Baltimore for three years and $35M dollars. What wasn't reported was that Fowler was looking for an opt-out after the first year and the Orioles were not going to do that since they would also be losing a draft pick in the process. Fowler turned heel and stayed in Chicago for a tick less than what he turned down in the qualifying offer. Logistics aside, this is better for him anyhow.

Fowler is projected to hit leadoff for the Cubs with Ben Zobrist, Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant behind him. Last year, he was one of my bold predictions as I said he would finally break the 90-run barrier in his career. He did that and then some, scoring 102 times. The 110-run barrier could be next.

Meanwhile, Jason Heyward now moves down in the lineup, but that's not a terrible thing. With Rizzo and Bryant in front of him and guys like Miguel Montero, Kyle Schwarber and Addison Russell behind him, Heyward gets a bump. He will have more RBI opportunities and his runs should come in about the same. More important, he has lineup protections in front of him as well as behind him now.